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INTIMADATOR2007
08-06-2012, 08:49 PM
http://www.dickmorris.com/the-real-poll-numbers/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports

So donít believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. Thatís the real story.

INTIMADATOR2007
08-06-2012, 08:51 PM
http://www.dickmorris.com/the-real-poll-data-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/
So don’t believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That’s the real story.

pwaldo
08-06-2012, 09:32 PM
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.

What polls (poll) have Romney AHEAD in NH, Nevada, and Colorado?

pghin08
08-07-2012, 12:28 AM
Until we actually vote in November, polls will be what they are; educated guesses that are fun to monitor. But you go ahead and use whatever polling data validates your opinions and helps you sleep at night.

Wickabee
08-07-2012, 12:56 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/the-real-poll-data-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/
So donít believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. Thatís the real story.

There it is, folks, no need to vote!

What, polls are meaningless and flip flop all the way to every single election ever? You don't say...

AUTaxMan
08-07-2012, 01:00 AM
This is probably actually pretty accurate. The campaigns don't use the public polling numbers. They have internal polls that are significantly more accurate than the polls we read about in the papers, and that's probably what Morris is referring to.

Wickabee
08-07-2012, 01:06 AM
The point is only one poll matters and it's in November.

AUTaxMan
08-07-2012, 01:11 AM
The point is only one poll matters and it's in November.

If they didn't matter, they wouldn't exist.

Wickabee
08-07-2012, 01:15 AM
If they didn't matter, they wouldn't exist.

Are you telling me everything that exists matter?

AUTaxMan
08-07-2012, 01:29 AM
Are you telling me everything that exists matter?

No, I'm telling you that if polls didn't matter, the campaigns wouldn't commission them.

pghin08
08-07-2012, 09:37 AM
If they didn't matter, they wouldn't exist.

Really? Polls matter? Because in another thread, you said this:


You will see lots of these polls going both ways over the next three months. I wouldn't put much stock in any of them.

Why wouldn't you put much stock in them if they are important?

mrveggieman
08-07-2012, 09:38 AM
No, I'm telling you that if polls didn't matter, the campaigns wouldn't commission them.


Several years ago I used to work for firms doing political polling. The polls are always paid for by supporters of a particular party and are used as a marketing tool. For example one of the questions that was asked went something to the effect of do you believe in a womans right to chose an abortion free of gov't interference? It was pretty much a pro abortion tool to get people on the fence about abortion to become pro abortion. In marketing/political research it is real easy to skew the numbers to show whatever you want. Those polls are simply a marketing/pr stunt and like wikabee said the only poll that matters will be the one in november.

AUTaxMan
08-07-2012, 10:41 AM
Really? Polls matter? Because in another thread, you said this:



Why wouldn't you put much stock in them if they are important?

Different polls. The polls in the news are not reliable. The internal polls are what matter.

AUTaxMan
08-07-2012, 10:42 AM
Several years ago I used to work for firms doing political polling. The polls are always paid for by supporters of a particular party and are used as a marketing tool. For example one of the questions that was asked went something to the effect of do you believe in a womans right to chose an abortion free of gov't interference? It was pretty much a pro abortion tool to get people on the fence about abortion to become pro abortion. In marketing/political research it is real easy to skew the numbers to show whatever you want. Those pools are simply a marketing/pr stunt and like wikabee said the only poll that matters will be the one in november.

Different type of poll. The campaigns do conduct polls for internal use that actually attempt to predict how people are going to vote instead of using them for campaign publicity.

pghin08
08-07-2012, 11:00 AM
Different polls. The polls in the news are not reliable. The internal polls are what matter.

I agree. The polls in the news are not reliable. But neither are the ones that Dick Morris claims are "real", but he can't name the source. I usually don't trust people who've been disgraced out of politics to adequately analyze them.

AUTaxMan
08-07-2012, 11:09 AM
I agree. The polls in the news are not reliable. But neither are the ones that Dick Morris claims are "real", but he can't name the source. I usually don't trust people who've been disgraced out of politics to adequately analyze them.

Morris is a pretty smarmy guy, but I think he's on top of this one. He knows what he's talking about.

pghin08
08-07-2012, 11:19 AM
Morris is a pretty smarmy guy, but I think he's on top of this one. He knows what he's talking about.

Really? You won't trust Pew or Rasmussen, but you'll trust the guy who said it would be Condi against Hillary in '08 and the guy who let a prostitute listen in on his calls to Bill Clinton?

Look, I have no idea who's going to win, and what polls will end up being right, if any. Nor do I care, I think polls are more for the fun of guessing and following than anything else. But what you're showing me right now is that you're no different than the legions of people out there who will believe whatever data they can find in order to validate their previously held notions, no matter the source or legitimacy. The fact is you're willing to invest in what a guy is saying without checking his validity or sources. Invest wisely, my friend.

Wickabee
08-07-2012, 12:22 PM
Different polls. The polls in the news are not reliable. The internal polls are what matter.

I'm sure you meant "polls that favor Obama are not reliable".

Or is that just a coincidence.

AUTaxMan
08-07-2012, 12:51 PM
I'm sure you meant "polls that favor Obama are not reliable".

Or is that just a coincidence.

No.

Wickabee
08-07-2012, 12:55 PM
I'd ask no to which part, but I'm pretty certain you meant no it's not just because this one favours Romney and the other favoured Obama, so I'll just reply with a "if you say so, I guess I have to believe you..."

pghin08
08-07-2012, 02:58 PM
No.

??

duwal
08-07-2012, 05:44 PM
Morris is a pretty smarmy guy, but I think he's on top of this one. He knows what he's talking about.


he doesn't know what he is talking about, he is merely saying his opinion which you hope is true

mikesilvia
08-07-2012, 05:52 PM
Polls do matter and are very accurate. There are some better than others. I think Zogby has predicted most presidential races by a 1/2 point or less. The problem is the polls can turn on a dime from any major news. What matters today won't matter in November, but they are still accurate to tell you if the election were held today what the results would be. The problem with polls is people cherry pick the numbers that support their candidates.

From what I understand many of the polls over sample one party and exit polls are more about the energetic. Wisconsin proved this. The union folks were more energized and the exit polls showed it be close. Why? Because union folks were more inclined to stick around and take the exit polls. Many supported governor Walker, but weren't as vocal about it.

Wickabee
08-07-2012, 06:01 PM
The funniest poll I ever saw had Obama beating Romney by something like 4 points but "Generic Republican" beating Obama by about 7.

pghin08
08-07-2012, 08:46 PM
he doesn't know what he is talking about, he is merely saying his opinion which you hope is true

Maybe

MadMan1978
08-07-2012, 08:47 PM
This article is to give the teapublicnas some light at the end of the tunnel

read nothing into jaded GOP run polls

pghin08
08-08-2012, 09:37 AM
Polls do matter and are very accurate. There are some better than others. I think Zogby has predicted most presidential races by a 1/2 point or less. The problem is the polls can turn on a dime from any major news. What matters today won't matter in November, but they are still accurate to tell you if the election were held today what the results would be. The problem with polls is people cherry pick the numbers that support their candidates.

From what I understand many of the polls over sample one party and exit polls are more about the energetic. Wisconsin proved this. The union folks were more energized and the exit polls showed it be close. Why? Because union folks were more inclined to stick around and take the exit polls. Many supported governor Walker, but weren't as vocal about it.

Spot on.