Well, it's official with the 2 copies of the Wheeler Victory Black I have already traded for and 4 copies already up on ebay within a week of the release it obvious there are more than 5 copies of each card produced this year.

I have mixed feelings about this since they are supposed to be one of the hardest cards to find. I can vouch for that having the only Lucic one I have ever seen from the main part of the set and never seeing a Krejci version of his rookie year. For me it diminishes the value of these hard to find cards and makes the chase for them not as interesting.

I would have to guess there could be as many as 25 copies if there are already 6 out there withing a week of the products release.

What are your guys' opinions on this and how many have you already seen of the specific player you collect? I would be interested in seeing the math of this....amount of cases UD produced for series 2, how many Victory Update cards are in the set and how many should be in each case, etc.

I'm not sure, but it seems Victory Black Update Cards seem to be MUCH MORE common than those from the Victory set itself.

I have seen 3 of the guy I collect pop up on ebay.

I've never seen the Gagner before, but the cards are definitely less valuable without the serial number. I mean here's Steve Mason's victory black
http://cgi.ebay.com/08-09-UD-2-Victory-Rookie-Black-331-Steve-Mason-Jackets_W0QQitemZ120376837659QQcmdZViewItemQQptZUS _SM_Sports_Cards?hash=item120376837659&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14&_trkparms=66%3A4|65%3A13|39%3A1|240%3A1318 (http://rover.ebay.com/rover/1/711-53200-19255-0/1?type=3&campid=5335896190&toolid=10001&mpre=http%3A%2F%2Fcgi.ebay.com%2F08-09-UD-2-Victory-Rookie-Black-331-Steve-Mason-Jackets_W0QQitemZ120376837659QQcmdZViewItemQQptZUS _SM_Sports_Cards%3Fhash%3Ditem120376837659%26_trks id%3Dp3286.c0.m14%26_trkparms%3D66%253A4%257C65%25 3A13%257C39%253A1%257C240%253A1318)

And here's the 05-06 Chris Simon /5
http://cgi.ebay.com/2005-06-UD-Victory-Black-31-Chris-Simon-2-5_W0QQitemZ260357488747QQcmdZViewItemQQptZUS_SM_Sp orts_Cards?hash=item260357488747&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14&_trkparms=66%3A4|65%3A3|39%3A1|240%3A1318 (http://rover.ebay.com/rover/1/711-53200-19255-0/1?type=3&campid=5335896190&toolid=10001&mpre=http%3A%2F%2Fcgi.ebay.com%2F2005-06-UD-Victory-Black-31-Chris-Simon-2-5_W0QQitemZ260357488747QQcmdZViewItemQQptZUS_SM_Sp orts_Cards%3Fhash%3Ditem260357488747%26_trksid%3Dp 3286.c0.m14%26_trkparms%3D66%253A4%257C65%253A3%25 7C39%253A1%257C240%253A1318)

I really have no explanation for why the Simon sold for that high...but no way it should be almost 3 times higher than the Mason, unless the /5 means THAT much.

I think the Simon went so high because 2 collectors got into a bidding war. That can happen on any card but given it is 3 years old and probably hasn't been see anywhere since that season could explain why it went so high.

The people with this years versions seem to be getting smarter and waiting for another to pop up and NOT get into a bidding war over the 1st 1 or 2.

I'm pretty sure that they didn't do the gold & black versions in the 07-08 Victory Update, which would explain why there's no Krejci from his rookie year.

As for this year's product, there have been a couple players with at least 6 Black cards on eBay. Given that the product just came out this past week, who knows how many more are just waiting to be pulled?

I'm pretty sure that they didn't do the gold & black versions in the 07-08 Victory Update, which would explain why there's no Krejci from his rookie year.

As for this year's product, there have been a couple players with at least 6 Black cards on eBay. Given that the product just came out this past week, who knows how many more are just waiting to be pulled?

I do agree with you on the update fact for 07-08 but Krejci was in the main part of the set and I do know 100% that there are gold and black versions for that.:winking0071:

Heh, touche. I think I've got a Krejci Victory RC, which would be impossible (or would it?) since I didn't open any of the regular Victory set last year. But I'm addled, so who knows.

Well, it's official with the 2 copies of the Wheeler Victory Black I have already traded for and 4 copies already up on ebay within a week of the release it obvious there are more than 5 copies of each card produced this year.

....

I would have to guess there could be as many as 25 copies if there are already 6 out there withing a week of the products release.

...



I did a bit of math on this earlier and it surprised me...

There are the 'case hits' or 1 per case:
http://sports.upperdeck.com/collectorszone/productpreview.aspx?aid=5199
In the odds posted it says 1 black victory base AND 1 black victory RC

Numbered case hits in this series are:
Case Break:
Ø 1 Rookie Playmakers oversized swatch card
Ø 1 Clear Cut Rookies acetate card
Ø 6 Parallel cards

Using the numbered cards, we calculate:
Rookie Playmakers - 42 * 100 = 4,200
Clear Cut Rookies - 42 * 100 = 4,200
Parallel Cards (/10 & /100) - 250 * 100 / 6 ~ 4167

So there are about 4,200 cases. At a black RC per case... in a 50 card set of rookies...
that's a print run of ~84 which is WAY more than 5.


Not that its any comforting, but we also know that the:

gold print runs are ~1008 (12 times more common than black)
autograph print runs are to ~57 (same seeding as black, but only 73 copies)

And until the release of the retail and fat pack versions, the regular card print runs are:

Rookie Card Print Run is at least ~6048
Rookie Materials are at least ~1680
Game Jerseys are at least ~730


Hope this helps your consideration to pursue the victory black cards!

Great work Matthew. Is that number of 42 based on the base AND rookies from Victory Update? If so I guess that would make the rookies print run 26 since there are only 50 rookies right?

well the pack stated odds on the Victory is is 1/720, and the Victory Update is 1/288, so it doesnt take a genius to figure out that there are more update Blacks than regular set...........It still doesnt explain my UD would do that though, lets make it harder on us you know

Great work Matthew. Is that number of 42 based on the base AND rookies from Victory Update? If so I guess that would make the rookies print run 26 since there are only 50 rookies right?

Hey,

You caught a good error. I thought that there were 100 rookies. But if there are 50, then there are TWICE as many, not half as much

4200 cases
1 black victory RC per case
Therefore - 4200 copies of black RC out there
in a print run of 50 cards there should be
(4200/50) = 84 copies of each.


But this depends on how accurante Upper Deck is (HAHA)
In the advertisement link I posted, Upper Deck says ONE black parallel per box (it also says the same odds on the back of a pack). If this is true, then the print run is 42.

However, if the odds listed farther down the page says 1:228 for the black base and 1:288 for the black rookie and a case break should have BOTH a black RC AND a black base.

That means that the # of black should be 84 for all black cards.

I haven't broken a case, but if you have or know someone who does, just confirm that a black base card AND a RC were pulled. If only one was pulled then they are out of 42. But if both were pulled, then 84.

Once again, this all depends on how accurate Upper Deck is in their posted odds (HAHA)

Cheers,
reoddai

So, let's try this.

Say there are 4200 cases. Each case has 12 boxes I think and each box has 24 packs. That would mean there are 1,209,600 packs produced total for hobby version of the product. If the Victory Black Rookies are 1:720 packs and there are 50 rookies in the set that would mean there are 33.6 copies of EACH different rookie. In that respect that would mean there are 84 of each part of the update set for the base cards at a rate of 1:288 packs.

well the pack stated odds on the Victory is is 1/720, and the Victory Update is 1/288, so it doesnt take a genius to figure out that there are more update Blacks than regular set...........It still doesnt explain my UD would do that though, lets make it harder on us you know

HEy devilshockey1967,

That's a good observatio, but odds don't tell the whole story.

For example, if UD S2 has 4,200 cases (= 50,400 boxes = 1,209,600 packs) and a 1:288 pack seeding (4,200 cards inserted) for 50 cards, that's 4,200 / 50 or 84 cards of each type

But, let's say Victory had 18,000 cases (=360,000 boxes = 12,960,000 packs) and a seeding of 1:2880 of rookie blacks (4,500 cards inserted) for 50 cards, that's 4,500 / 50 or 90 cards of each type.


I'm not saying that Victory had 18,000 cases produced, I'm just trying to point out that just because a card is seeded more rarely in a set, this doesn't mean that the card has a lower print run. A classic example is the 90-91 Pro Set Stanley Cup hologram. I think the seeding was 1 in 10 cases or less, but the print run was 5,000

So, let's try this.

Say there are 4200 cases. Each case has 12 boxes I think and each box has 24 packs. That would mean there are 1,209,600 packs produced total for hobby version of the product. If the Victory Black Rookies are 1:720 packs and there are 50 rookies in the set that would mean there are 33.6 copies of EACH different rookie. In that respect that would mean there are 84 of each part of the update set for the base cards at a rate of 1:288 packs.

Your math looks right BTW, but the seeding ratio you used is from the wrong set.

the 1:720 pull rate was for the original victory base card and 1:2880 for the Black rookies for 08/09 Victory. These rates are not the printed rates for the 08/09 UD S2 Victory Update Black.

08/09 Victory pull rates can be seen here for the next 30-60 days:

http://cgi.ebay.ca/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=390026516953&ssPageName=MERCOSI_VI_ROSI_PR4_PCN_BIX_Stores&refitem=390028203173&itemcount=4&refwidgetloc=closed_view_item&refwidgettype=osi_widget&_trksid=p284.m185&_trkparms=algo%3DSI%26its%3DI%252BIA%26itu%3DCR%25 2BIA%252BUCI%26otn%3D4%26ps%3D41


I explain a little more in my previous post.

Cheers,
reoddai

HEy devilshockey1967,

That's a good observatio, but odds don't tell the whole story.

For example, if UD S2 has 4,200 cases (= 50,400 boxes = 1,209,600 packs) and a 1:288 pack seeding (4,200 cards inserted) for 50 cards, that's 4,200 / 50 or 84 cards of each type

But, let's say Victory had 18,000 cases (=360,000 boxes = 12,960,000 packs) and a seeding of 1:2880 of rookie blacks (4,500 cards inserted) for 50 cards, that's 4,500 / 50 or 90 cards of each type.


I'm not saying that Victory had 18,000 cases produced, I'm just trying to point out that just because a card is seeded more rarely in a set, this doesn't mean that the card has a lower print run. A classic example is the 90-91 Pro Set Stanley Cup hologram. I think the seeding was 1 in 10 cases or less, but the print run was 5,000

No I Agree, I was just making a general statement, yeah odds dont always show the BIG picture, but without doing the math, it seemed logical to me right out of the gate that there would be more Updates than regular set, when they odds are that different, but yeah your right.......

oh thats interesting that the Stated odds on the BLack RC's is 1/2880........I have never bought I box of Victory, I just assumed that all the Black ODDs are 1/720.......Either way good old UD, nothing like keeping things "consistent"......

Here is a Black RC question...........what were the Odds last year........does anyone know?

oh thats interesting that the Stated odds on the BLack RC's is 1/2880........I have never bought I box of Victory, I just assumed that all the Black ODDs are 1/720.......Either way good old UD, nothing like keeping things "consistent"......

Here is a Black RC question...........what were the Odds last year........does anyone know?

07/08 UD Victory: (http://www.dacardworld.com/sports-cards/2007-08-upper-deck-victory-hockey-box)
Parallels
o Regular Cards Gold Parallel 1:36
o Victory Rookies Gold Parallel 1:240
o Regular Cards Black Parallel 1:720
o Victory Rookies Black Parallel 1:2880

07/08 Upper Deck SEries 2 Victory Update:
odds unknown and the release information makes no mention of gold or black parallels for the update

07/08 UD Victory: (http://www.dacardworld.com/sports-cards/2007-08-upper-deck-victory-hockey-box)
Parallels
o Regular Cards Gold Parallel 1:36
o Victory Rookies Gold Parallel 1:240
o Regular Cards Black Parallel 1:720
o Victory Rookies Black Parallel 1:2880

07/08 Upper Deck SEries 2 Victory Update:
odds unknown and the release information makes no mention of gold or black parallels for the update


Great thank you, I have an Andy Greene Black, and I was starting to get worried that there were more than 5

Your math looks right BTW, but the seeding ratio you used is from the wrong set.

the 1:720 pull rate was for the original victory base card and 1:2880 for the Black rookies for 08/09 Victory. These rates are not the printed rates for the 08/09 UD S2 Victory Update Black.

08/09 Victory pull rates can be seen here for the next 30-60 days:

http://cgi.ebay.ca/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=390026516953&ssPageName=MERCOSI_VI_ROSI_PR4_PCN_BIX_Stores&refitem=390028203173&itemcount=4&refwidgetloc=closed_view_item&refwidgettype=osi_widget&_trksid=p284.m185&_trkparms=algo%3DSI%26its%3DI%252BIA%26itu%3DCR%25 2BIA%252BUCI%26otn%3D4%26ps%3D41

I explain a little more in my previous post.

Cheers,
reoddai


I am just trying to figure things out for the update set put in the Series 2 boxes not the regular Victory stuff from earlier in the year. I could have sworn that the odds I listed were directly from the boxes I busted last week and what I have been seeing on various boards.

I am just trying to figure things out for the update set put in the Series 2 boxes not the regular Victory stuff from earlier in the year. I could have sworn that the odds I listed were directly from the boxes I busted last week and what I have been seeing on various boards.

POsted odds for 08/09 UD S2 Victory update black is 1:288 for base cards and 1:288 for rookie cards.

You'd have to confirm. with case breaks, but from what I've seen, this looks to be true, so a print run around 84 is likely:

2 case breaks:
You Tube Link /watch?v=8gS1u17d00M (apparently I can't post any variation of a youtube link which will result in a link and not a video. Just put www.youtube.com before the rest of the link if you want to see the video)
First Case (had double hits of all case hits):
2x Black Base
2x Black RC

Second Case (not posted)

http://www.youtube.com/user/99Hockeykings
One Case:
1x Black Base
1x Black RC

I'm not sure, but it seems Victory Black Update Cards seem to be MUCH MORE common than those from the Victory set itself.

I agree 100%, only saw 2 Ericssons from original Victory but 6 Conklins from the update already!

I think this could all go down to print run of UD Series 1 vs. UD Series 2.. Maybe UD did not print has many boxes/cases, and therefore they simply eliminated the base card volume dimension, but kept the parallel card totals as previous? (blacks, golds, HG, exclusives)...

I think this could all go down to print run of UD Series 1 vs. UD Series 2.. Maybe UD did not print has many boxes/cases, and therefore they simply eliminated the base card volume dimension, but kept the parallel card totals as previous? (blacks, golds, HG, exclusives)...

Hey Canesice,

The math of it all is pretty well spelled out here:
http://www.sportscardforum.com/showpost.php?p=5015009&postcount=9

If they are serious about their rookie playmakers and rookie clearcuts showing up at a rate of one per case and their parallels showing up 6 per case then there are 4,200 cases of UD S2. From what I've seen from case breaks, this is true.

If they're stated odds for Victory black hits is true (and it seems to be from reported case breaks) this translates to an approximate print run of 84 for victory black.

REgarding the UD S1 breaks we can do a similar calculation on how many cases there are:
Case hits:
1-2 Clear Cut Winners
1-2 Fab Four Fabrics

Number of cards * #ed to = Number of Cases:
CCW = 42*100 + 42 *25 = 5,250
Fab Four = 42*100 = 4,200

Since the Number of cases is around 4-5 thousand I would bet that UD S1 and S2 were produced in almost the same amount. Of course, this is for the Hobby version only. There were more cases produced to satisfy retail and Fat pack demands.

Well now I'm getting very upset with Upper Deck for pulling this kind of crap on collectors!!! Not posting print runs for Victory Black is really annoying since and I'm won't be trading for one until I find out!!! Definitely not trading $60 for until I know the value.

Also had a huge discussion on the print run of the Trilogy Rivals and Tri-Colour Tandem cards! Really UD either stamp them with serial #'s or tell collector's honest print runs so we don't have to guess!!!

Also had a huge discussion on the print run of the Trilogy Rivals and Tri-Colour Tandem cards! Really UD either stamp them with serial #'s or tell collector's honest print runs so we don't have to guess!!!

Based at the info given by Upper Deck on Trilogy, we can make a good guess at the trilogy rivals print run:

We know that rookies are 1:3 packs & that the two sided jersey cards (tri-colour tandems and trilogy rivals) combine for 3 per case.

In the set there are:
60 rookies with a print run of 999 = 59,940
15 rookies with a print run of 499 = 7,485
Total number of rookies = 59,940+7,485 = 67,425

Since there are three rookies per box and 10 boxes per case, we get:
67,425 / 3 / 10 ~ 2,250 cases.

Since there are three two sided jersey cards per case, there should be:
~6,750 two sided jersey cards in total.

From here it gets tricky. We need to see some case breaks to make a good determination. Luckily, we have two here at SCF:
http://www.sportscardforum.com/showthread.php?t=695363&highlight=trilogy+case
http://www.sportscardforum.com/showthread.php?t=659266&highlight=trilogy+case&page=95

Small sample, but we get two tri-colour tandems and 1 rivals per case. Which kinda makes sense because there are almost twice as many tri-colour tandems (39 different cards) as there are Rivals (19). This also means that the tri-colour tandems has the same print runs as the rivals.

Anyways, in total, there are 58 different three two-sided jersey cards that can be pulled. Since there are ~6,750 to begin with, each one has a print run of ~116. Which sounds about right. Upper Deck has an enjoyment for printing ~100 copies of cards for the shorter printed items (see fab four fabrics, exclusives, autos, Cup RC Sp, etc. etc.), so this makes a lot of sense for a higher end product.

The long and short of it, expect about ~100 copies of each card on the market with 0.1-10% held back for replacement purposes.

Hope that this helps!

Cheers,
reoddai

Based at the info given by Upper Deck on Trilogy, we can make a good guess at the trilogy rivals print run:

We know that rookies are 1:3 packs & that the two sided jersey cards (tri-colour tandems and trilogy rivals) combine for 3 per case.

In the set there are:
60 rookies with a print run of 999 = 59,940
15 rookies with a print run of 499 = 7,485
Total number of rookies = 59,940+7,485 = 67,425

Since there are three rookies per box and 10 boxes per case, we get:
67,425 / 3 / 10 ~ 2,250 cases.

Since there are three two sided jersey cards per case, there should be:
~6,750 two sided jersey cards in total.

From here it gets tricky. We need to see some case breaks to make a good determination. Luckily, we have two here at SCF:
http://www.sportscardforum.com/showthread.php?t=695363&highlight=trilogy+case
http://www.sportscardforum.com/showthread.php?t=659266&highlight=trilogy+case&page=95

Small sample, but we get two tri-colour tandems and 1 rivals per case. Which kinda makes sense because there are almost twice as many tri-colour tandems (39 different cards) as there are Rivals (19). This also means that the tri-colour tandems has the same print runs as the rivals.

Anyways, in total, there are 58 different three two-sided jersey cards that can be pulled. Since there are ~6,750 to begin with, each one has a print run of ~116. Which sounds about right. Upper Deck has an enjoyment for printing ~100 copies of cards for the shorter printed items (see fab four fabrics, exclusives, autos, Cup RC Sp, etc. etc.), so this makes a lot of sense for a higher end product.

The long and short of it, expect about ~100 copies of each card on the market with 0.1-10% held back for replacement purposes.

Hope that this helps!

Cheers,
reoddai

Thanks. I was a major part of the Trilogy debate since I pulled 6 player Trilogy Rivals card and I was told that there were only 4,500 boxes produced which I estimated to be only /25 but now 58 is a weird number. I'd guess 50 Rivals and 100 on the Tri Colour Tandems.

Here is the thing though is there are 75 or 100 Victory Update Black rookies I'm not trading $60-80 BV for one. If only 5-10 then yes I would.

Thanks. I was a major part of the Trilogy debate since I pulled 6 player Trilogy Rivals card and I was told that there were only 4,500 boxes produced which I estimated to be only /25 but now 58 is a weird number. I'd guess 50 Rivals and 100 on the Tri Colour Tandems.

Here is the thing though is there are 75 or 100 Victory Update Black rookies I'm not trading $60-80 BV for one. If only 5-10 then yes I would.

Actually, my guess was a print run of 100 for the Tri colour tandems and 100 for the rivals.

There are twice as many cards of the tandems (39) as there are rivals (19). But in a case pull, you get two tandems and one rivals. So while the rivals are twice as rare as the tandems, the only reason for this is because there are only half as many designs. They probably all have the same print run of 100 cards each.

If you go to eBay (including store inventory) and do a search for trilogy tandems, you get 34 hits. Trilogy rivals is 20 hits. Again, twice as common, but only because they are pulled twice as often. They have very similar print runs IMO.

Good point on the victory black though. These shouldn't have the BV of previous black cards... This will be a real test for Beckett. If they aren't doing the math or tracking the sales they will report the black cards as "not priced due to scarcity". If they are tracking the sales and doing the math, but rely on the "black" designation, we may see inflated BV values. When black pricing comes out we'll see the true folly or accuracy of Beckett on these cards.

Actually, my guess was a print run of 100 for the Tri colour tandems and 100 for the rivals.

There are twice as many cards of the tandems (39) as there are rivals (19). But in a case pull, you get two tandems and one rivals. So while the rivals are twice as rare as the tandems, the only reason for this is because there are only half as many designs. They probably all have the same print run of 100 cards each.

If you go to eBay (including store inventory) and do a search for trilogy tandems, you get 34 hits. Trilogy rivals is 20 hits. Again, twice as common, but only because they are pulled twice as often. They have very similar print runs IMO.

Good point on the victory black though. These shouldn't have the BV of previous black cards... This will be a real test for Beckett. If they aren't doing the math or tracking the sales they will report the black cards as "not priced due to scarcity". If they are tracking the sales and doing the math, but rely on the "black" designation, we may see inflated BV values. When black pricing comes out we'll see the true folly or accuracy of Beckett on these cards.

Well I'm sure Beckett is confused by the Victory Update cards are confusing Beckett since they priced like all the UD Series 2 cards but not any of the Victory Base/Rookies.

As for the Trilogy Rivals Beckett has the Toronto/Montreal at $200 while I saw one sell for $40 just this week. If it is /100 no way the BV should be $200 for it.

Well I'm sure Beckett is confused by the Victory Update cards are confusing Beckett since they priced like all the UD Series 2 cards but not any of the Victory Base/Rookies.

As for the Trilogy Rivals Beckett has the Toronto/Montreal at $200 while I saw one sell for $40 just this week. If it is /100 no way the BV should be $200 for it.

Beckett seems confused in general, but that's just me.