Just curious how difficult is it to pull one of these iconic RC from a wax? Is there a difference between topps vs opc?

Someone else can correct me if I'm wrong.... but I believe in the case of both years, there are 10 cards per pack, and 24 packs per box? That would give you 240 cards in a box.

1979-80 OPC has 396 Cards. 240/396 = 0.6060 (let's round up to 0.61). Basically, you should get 61% of the set, which means you've got a 61% chance of pulling a Gretzky RC from an OPC box.

In 1985-86 OPC there is only 264 cards. You should get the same number of cards in the box (24 packs of 10 cards) so you're getting 240/264 = 0.9090. Just like before, I'd suggest you're getting 91% of the set (roughly) so there's about a 91% chance of you pulling the Lemieux RC.

The Topps boxes are a little different. Again, as far as I know, they're 10 card packs, and 24 packs per box.

There is only 264 cards in 1979-80 Topps..... so you should have a 91% chance of getting a Gretzkey here (same calculations as the Lemiux in OPC).

The 85-86 Topps is where it gets really fun. There are only 165 cards in the set. You'll get 240 in a box. so 240/165 = 1.4545 That's saying you've pretty much got a 145% chance of getting a Lemeuix RC. That should work out to close to 3 Lemeuixs every two boxes.

The problem with that calculation is, it doesn't factor in the fact that cards 1-99 in that Topps set were double printed, compared to the last 66 cards. Mario falls into the first part (the double prints) so it's a little more complicated.

If I double 99, and then add 66..... I come back to that familiar number 264. So in other words, for every 264 cards they made..... there should be two Lemieuxs. If you're buying a box of 240, again, there should be 91% chance of a card showing up based on a 264 card set. I'm sure there's a much more complicated, more exact formulae for determining the number of Lemeuixs.... but I would approximatly double that 91%. You should have a 182% chance of getting one. That is to say that 4/5 boxes will likely have two of his RCs, and the 5th box will only have 1.

This is the reason that unopened Topps wax from 85-86 usually sells for more than the OPC, despite the OPC being worth more as singles or as a set.

I don't think my calculations are perfect, but they should be pretty close. Hope that info helps.

Someone else can correct me if I'm wrong.... but I believe in the case of both years, there are 10 cards per pack, and 24 packs per box? That would give you 240 cards in a box.

1979-80 OPC has 396 Cards. 240/396 = 0.6060 (let's round up to 0.61). Basically, you should get 61% of the set, which means you've got a 61% chance of pulling a Gretzky RC from an OPC box.

In 1985-86 OPC there is only 264 cards. You should get the same number of cards in the box (24 packs of 10 cards) so you're getting 240/264 = 0.9090. Just like before, I'd suggest you're getting 91% of the set (roughly) so there's about a 91% chance of you pulling the Lemieux RC.

The Topps boxes are a little different. Again, as far as I know, they're 10 card packs, and 24 packs per box.

There is only 264 cards in 1979-80 Topps..... so you should have a 91% chance of getting a Gretzkey here (same calculations as the Lemiux in OPC).

The 85-86 Topps is where it gets really fun. There are only 165 cards in the set. You'll get 240 in a box. so 240/165 = 1.4545 That's saying you've pretty much got a 145% chance of getting a Lemeuix RC. That should work out to close to 3 Lemeuixs every two boxes.

The problem with that calculation is, it doesn't factor in the fact that cards 1-99 in that Topps set were double printed, compared to the last 66 cards. Mario falls into the first part (the double prints) so it's a little more complicated.

If I double 99, and then add 66..... I come back to that familiar number 264. So in other words, for every 264 cards they made..... there should be two Lemieuxs. If you're buying a box of 240, again, there should be 91% chance of a card showing up based on a 264 card set. I'm sure there's a much more complicated, more exact formulae for determining the number of Lemeuixs.... but I would approximatly double that 91%. You should have a 182% chance of getting one. That is to say that 4/5 boxes will likely have two of his RCs, and the 5th box will only have 1.

This is the reason that unopened Topps wax from 85-86 usually sells for more than the OPC, despite the OPC being worth more as singles or as a set.

I don't think my calculations are perfect, but they should be pretty close. Hope that info helps.

:love0030: Nice job!

I think in the older wax there is more than 24 packs per box, 36 or 48

Maybe an older wax collector can confirm?

Someone else can correct me if I'm wrong.... but I believe in the case of both years, there are 10 cards per pack, and 24 packs per box? That would give you 240 cards in a box.

1979-80 OPC has 396 Cards. 240/396 = 0.6060 (let's round up to 0.61). Basically, you should get 61% of the set, which means you've got a 61% chance of pulling a Gretzky RC from an OPC box.

In 1985-86 OPC there is only 264 cards. You should get the same number of cards in the box (24 packs of 10 cards) so you're getting 240/264 = 0.9090. Just like before, I'd suggest you're getting 91% of the set (roughly) so there's about a 91% chance of you pulling the Lemieux RC.

The Topps boxes are a little different. Again, as far as I know, they're 10 card packs, and 24 packs per box.

There is only 264 cards in 1979-80 Topps..... so you should have a 91% chance of getting a Gretzkey here (same calculations as the Lemiux in OPC).

The 85-86 Topps is where it gets really fun. There are only 165 cards in the set. You'll get 240 in a box. so 240/165 = 1.4545 That's saying you've pretty much got a 145% chance of getting a Lemeuix RC. That should work out to close to 3 Lemeuixs every two boxes.

The problem with that calculation is, it doesn't factor in the fact that cards 1-99 in that Topps set were double printed, compared to the last 66 cards. Mario falls into the first part (the double prints) so it's a little more complicated.

If I double 99, and then add 66..... I come back to that familiar number 264. So in other words, for every 264 cards they made..... there should be two Lemieuxs. If you're buying a box of 240, again, there should be 91% chance of a card showing up based on a 264 card set. I'm sure there's a much more complicated, more exact formulae for determining the number of Lemeuixs.... but I would approximatly double that 91%. You should have a 182% chance of getting one. That is to say that 4/5 boxes will likely have two of his RCs, and the 5th box will only have 1.

This is the reason that unopened Topps wax from 85-86 usually sells for more than the OPC, despite the OPC being worth more as singles or as a set.

I don't think my calculations are perfect, but they should be pretty close. Hope that info helps.


My brains hurts. I hate math.

Just did a little looking around. I used 24 packs because I very quickly found an eBay auction selling "a box of 24 unopened packs". My guess is this guy found a Gretzky in the 12th pack, and is now selling the rest of them :)

Anyway, 36 packs changes the odds dramatically. If anyone wants to see the calculations in action, just replace '24' with '36' in any of the calculations I did above... otherwise, the percentage chances are as follows:

79-80 OPC - 91% Chance of pulling a Gretzky (approx 1 box in 10 will not have one)
79-80 Topps - 136% Chance of pulling a Gretzky (approx 1 per box, every 3rd box will have 2)
85-86 OPC - 136% Chance of pulling a Lemieux (approx 1 per box, every 3rd box will have 2)
85-86 Topps - 272% Chance of pulling a Lemieux (SHOULD get at least 2 per box. Nearly 3/4 boxes will have 3 of them).

Again... I changed those figures / odds to match with 10 cards per pack, 36 packs per box. If that's not correct, throw away my numbers.

Correct me if i'm wrong but vintage OPC wax boxes usually had 48 packs per box. Topps I think gives you 36. IIRC 79/80 gives you 14 cards per pack. So the odds you'll hit any particular card are decent (much better than with newer products) but I don't think they are quite as good as 30ranfordfan does (meaning no disrespect to him) but I don't have the math to disprove him. I busted a box of 89/90 OPC (48 packs) and I didn't hit a sakic rookie. Coalation was good but I still had a good size stack of doubles and was still missing quite a few cards. I don't see any reason to suspect that it would be otherwise with 85/86 or 79/80.

If you want to go for these cards I think it would be much wiser to get them as singles and not bother with the wax. A 79/80 wax box is probably worth more unbusted than a mint Gretzky rookie. I saw one on ebay a while ago where each pack was graded 9 and they wanted $30,000.

The 1979-80 O-Pee-Chee set consisted of 396 standard-size cards. Cards 81, 82, 141, 163, and 263 differed from that of the corresponding Topps issue. Wax packs had 14 cards plus a bubble-gum piece.


Doesnt give a count on the 1985-86 OPC.

Or how many packs come in each wax box.

I agree.... my numbers a little fuzzy becuase I'm very likely wrong with the # of packs in a box, a may be wrong with number of cards in a pack.

The math is correct though. If I have a sealed box of 360 cards, and there is 396 cards in the set.... assuming that each of the 360 cards are unique, you've got (roughly) a 91% chance of getting any individual card. We all know that the distribution isn't that even.... you're likely to get doubles of some cards, and therefore a smaller number of total uniques. I suppose this means that there is less of a chance of getting a Gretzky than I've stated..... but it also means that some boxes could have 3.

The last post is 100% correct. If you're after one of these RCs, you're far better off to just buy the card. An unopened box would cost WAY more than the actual card.

9 times out of the 10 you would get at least 1 per box sometimes 2 but not very often...i opened at least 5 boxes when they came out ended up with 6.....Still have 2 of them....

9 times out of the 10 you would get at least 1 per box sometimes 2 but not very often...i opened at least 5 boxes when they came out ended up with 6.....Still have 2 of them....

The Gretzky or the Lemieux? Either way that's awesome.

ur assuming that u arent going to get any doubles but lets face it u will so its going to be a little lower its impossible to figure out because u may get doubles of 15 cards which means ur odds go down 5% so its impossible to predict

I was talkng the 79-80 opc as far as the 85 -86 opc you would get 1 per box i opened around 15 boxes that year ,the topps you would get 2 sometimes 3 i bought about 6 boxes.....they were the days...79-80 opc was $12 a box 85 -86 opc was $18 topps $20...those were the days......

I was talkng the 79-80 opc as far as the 05 -06 opc you would get 1 per box i opened around 15 boxes that year ,the topps you would get 2 sometimes 3 i bought about 6 boxes.....they were the days...79-80 opc was $12 a box 85 -86 opc was $18 topps $20...those were the days......

Those were the days you had collectors not investors as well.

DON

You have to assume the packs weren't searched....

I opened 1 pack and got a Lemiuex & Yzerman 2nd year in the same pack. I also got a Roy rookie in just 3 packs. I got a Yzerman rookie in 1 box. My luck is good with vintage, but it's unpredictable.

48 packs per box was what it was back in the day,as for card hits,between 5 of us back then i'm sure we had a dozen each of #99's RC'S,many of them along with alot of others from 79/80/81/82 went into the spokes of our bikes,i'm glad i saved 5 good rc's from that era!
Those were the days,boxes and boxes and boxes of cards,empty wax packs filling up garbage bags!