How Will PED's Affect Card Prices
by
, 07-25-2013 at 04:54 PM (1871 Views)
If you follow baseball, you likely heard that Ryan Braun is suspended for the rest of the season for his connection to the Biogenisis lab which gave him PED's. There are also 20 other players who will likely be punished for the same thing.
The first thing to look at is what fans think of them using PED's. The response seems to be fairly mixed. Some collectors are extremely disappointed in their favorite players who are caught with PED's, however it seems that most are accepting and willing to let it slide. It might be expected for prices to drop a little bit if collectors stop collecting certain players, but most of the players named likely have hundreds of collectors, so losing a few here and there is not a really big deal.
The next concern is lost playing time. A player is usually only in their peak until 32, when they start to drop off and usually around 40, star players either retire or end up on the bench. If a player misses a good chunk of a season because they are suspended, especially if it is in their peak years (Braun), it will hurt their lifetime stats. A would be 3000 hit player could lose 50 hits over a 50 game suspension. For long term collectors, every single hit, stolen base, win, save, or home run counts. Most of the players suspended will lose a decent chunk of their lifetime stats due to not being able to play.
The next concern is future suspensions. Sitting out 50 games hurts stats, but it won't kill a career. Sitting out 150 won't either, but it is essentially taking a whole year out of a career. Imagine if Barry Bonds had to sit out 150 games from the peak time in his career, Aaron would still be the HR king. Almost every single player is able to talk about how disappointed they are in themselves and how they will never make that mistake again, but we all know that isn't true. If you have 2 months to sit out, it is only logical to practice and get better. What is the quickest way to get stronger? Use some more PED's. The main player this concerns is Alex Rodriguez. Assuming he isn't done for life, he will be 1 step away from getting kicked out. That wasn't a deterrent for Pete Rose and won't be for Rodriguez. He will talk about how he feels shameful and do the same exact thing. Collectors will always have the fear in their minds that any day could be his last day in the MLB and any hopes for 700 HR's are completely gone.
The final concern is HoF status. Unless the MLB allows PED's, the HoF will likely never have a member who was suspended for PED's. There is always a jump in prices when a player joins the HoF. While none of the players listed were really likely to join the HoF, there was certainly hope. If they are suspended, all hope is gone.
Here are my predictions:
Alex Rodriguez's prices will fall a little bit, or a whole bunch if he is done for life. His prices have dropped, but they will drop more. If he is done for life, people will be dumping his cards right away. I would wait at least a month until the prices go back up a little bit once the market returns to normal. If he is not suspended for life, prices will stay near the same. Everyone knows he is caught, everyone knows his mistake, the suspension will do little.
If Bartolo Colon gets 100 games, his career is done. His prices will not drop very much, considering he has been suspended once so all of the collectors who would have left are gone, and it won't do much to hurt his lifetime numbers. If he isn't suspended (not likely but possible), then his prices could rise a little bit.
Gio Gonzalez is a whole different story. Somehow his name is on the list but that isn't considered bad. The collectors who would leave if he is caught are still here, which is a key point. If he isn't suspended, prices will not change much but if he is, they will fall for sure. At first he denied all connections to the lab but now it appears he did, and the story is changed. If he is suspended, his credibility is ruined and his prices will fall a good amount.
Everyone else will have their prices fall slightly if they are suspended. Their career numbers will be hurt, they might lose a few fans, and their longshot HoF chances will be gone, but their cards will still be desirable. People will still collect a star player who leads their favorite team to the playoffs even if he made a few mistakes along the way.
If you are a seller, I would not dump all of my cards once a player is suspended. This is likely the start and next year we could have an even longer list. PED's have changed from being shameful and horrible to just cheating but not a big deal. The culture will continue to change. If you are a buyer, this could be a great time. If you don't value a player based on if he was caught cheating or not, you will likely find some really cheap cards of some really good players because of their suspensions.
Do you agree with my analysis? Comment and tell me how you think it is, your predictions, and what you will do buying and selling.