first year collecting, questions regarding mid-long term card values

[RGM81]

I'm not really looking to invest in cards, don't get me wrong.

I'm just unsure of the optimal strategy in terms of unloading or holding onto cards you dont want for PC, but get in packs/box breaks. In that case, my money is spent that is fine as thats the risk I take buying sealed packs. But from that point on, I'm not sure if say I should sell for ex. this brayden schenn young gun for $7, or ride it out and maybe in a year or two he's a star and sell it then. Just curious how the markets change long term

Sorry if i worded my original post poorly. I understand forums for collectible goods are filled with people looking to flip stuff and make money. I buy the packs looking to pull things that are in it that I would want to keep, like an eberle YG for example, but I ended up with a schenn, just wondering what others do in this situation.

Thanks again for all replies

While they say it is true that sometimes the best trade is the one you didn't make, when it comes to the card market some guys will likely never have the same hobby attention that they receive in their rookie years. With a guy like Schenn, it's doubtful that you'd ever see much more than a marginal increase in value. Why? Because there's already so many of his cards out there. Even if there's a boost in demand you probably won't see much of a price rise because there's already so much supply available.

There's really no such thing as an "optimal strategy in terms of unloading or holding onto cards" that are trade bait - with so much of this hobby always being focused on the next big thing, most of the time the best move is to make the one you can. Sergei Kostitsyn was red-hot in the hobby when he first debuted because he only had a small handful of RC's. Today, you're lucky if you can find somebody willing to pay $5 for it. You can't go into the hobby with a long-term approach to some players because their career trajectories don't actually have a long term. Then you get stuck holding the bag, figuratively speaking.

[comfortably9numb]

My own personal principle i follow is to keep the low-value rookies and rookie autos, and to sell the high-value player rookies and rookie autos as quickly as I can. If I were to pull a RNH, I'd sell it in a heart beat, because there are many rookies and rookie autos of him out there, and the value will drop. I keep players that are not very popular, because they tend to have fewer rookies and rookie autos (obv there are exceptions to that), and if they blow up, they will be much rarer. I'm not sure if you know anything about football, but like the Tom Brady effect. Guy gets drafted in the 6th round, no body cares about the cards they pull of him...10 years later, they are worth a pretty penny..obviously that case is very rare, but i'd rather take the risk and hang on to it than sell a cheap card for $1-5

[subban7677]

Strategy won't work as it is all a game of chance. In a case like Kadri, now is the time to sell, as I don't see his stuff getting much hotter. And if it ain't getting hotter, it's getting colder. Take my guy PK, his stuff is far cheaper than it was in his rookie season, even though he is twice the player now than he was then. Some no-name player might go and pot 5 goals tonight, and you'll see a slight blip in his stuff...just to cool back down later. I would say the best strategy if you're into busting wax is to collect for your PC, and keep the rest as traders.

[RGM81]

Strategy won't work as it is all a game of chance. In a case like Kadri, now is the time to sell, as I don't see his stuff getting much hotter. And if it ain't getting hotter, it's getting colder. Take my guy PK, his stuff is far cheaper than it was in his rookie season, even though he is twice the player now than he was then. Some no-name player might go and pot 5 goals tonight, and you'll see a slight blip in his stuff...just to cool back down later. I would say the best strategy if you're into busting wax is to collect for your PC, and keep the rest as traders.

Also known as the "Sam Gagner" bump.

[JVW]

Also known as the "Sam Gagner" bump.

And the "Lars Eller" Bump. Hey the Habs are playing Winnipeg tonight! Maybe he will score another 4 goals!

[chakhae1]

First off if you are in the hobby to make a profit, then get out of it. It is possible but it takes most of the fun out of it and that's why anyone should be in the hobby in the first place. With regards to young guns, your main target audience would be set builders since they are the one's that are driving the price up of this set. That and hardcore rookie collectors b/c UD is typically the first release of the year and a lot of collectors want to get their hands on it for that very reason.

Other ways to forecast the investment potential of any card is obviously to look at the performance of that player. Sell when the player is hot and buy when the player is cold is a general rule that anyone looking to make money in the hobby should follow. Common sense might say to hold onto a card if the player is hot, but it's up to you to make that risk. The player may get cold or hotter and the value will reflect accordingly.

In my experience card values in any sport don't really go drastically down unless something overwhelming happens to that player such as a career ending injury, getting demoted to the minors or the player falls off the face of the Earth. A good example of this is Matt Frattin who was hot for a couple of weeks and I was fortunate to take advantage of this and more than doubled my profit on his CUP RPA I had.

Those are the breaks. Making money in anything takes a lot of work and sure some people like making money, but I'd rather just collect cards with my money and make whatever money I can on the side.