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  1. #1

    How are we not talking about what's going on in Egypt?

    This has taken way to long to start. Some talking points:

    1. Who do you side with? Mubarak supporters (would love to hear your defense, if you have one) or protestors?

    2. What do you think this means for the US? Given that Egypt has been our steadiest ally in the middle east for the better part of 3 decades, how should we play our cards in this one? I'm pretty sure that Egypt is the second largest recipient of US aid.

    3. Do you think the Muslim Brotherhood group could eventually rise to power in Egypt? If so, how does the Democratic movement in Egypt proceed?

    4. If a new democracy comes to be in Egypt, how do we then look at the Bush presidency? I've been thinking about it myself, and even as a staunch Bush critic, he might have been right. He said all along that if we could get a democracy working in Iraq, countries in the middle east would possibly follow suit.

    5. If Egypt ousts Mubarek (forcibly removes him, not just keeping him out of the next "election"), who's next in the middle east? Is Ahmedinijad unpopular enough with the youth of Iran that we could see something similar?


    If you have other things, let 'er rip. I personally think we're seeing the most globally significant event of this century happening in Tunisia/Egypt/Jordan/Yemen and the sorts.
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  2. #2
    1. Don't care either way. They just need to resolve it without violence and affecting the international community.

    2. Ever heard of Israel? I have never seen Egypt as a true ally. They profit from oil...that is where their allegiance lies.

    3. If they do then it is just one more Middle East country with a bleak future.

    4. Bush will never get credit for being right about anything. Obama will be praised if things in Egypt turn into a democracy even tho he hasn't done anything to influence it.

    5. Iran and Egypt are vastly different IMO. Iran is too much of a police state for that to happen. Just like Saddam Hussein I think Ahmedinijad would quietly have a few hundred thousand people eliminated and the problem would be squelched. He will not relinquish power without mass genocide of the opposition on his way out.

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  3. #3
    I don't know too much about the situation, but it seems like 30 years in power for one person is way too much. I'm not sure about the percentages of the population that want this guy out, but it seems like there's a need for a change in power. Obviously it would be good if the person that steps in is willing to be an ally to the US well as others, but I don't think we should really make a play to place someone or even back someone.

    I actually can see something like this happening in Iraq in the next decade. It would take people that are truly willing to give up everything for the freedom of the country, but definitely can see it happening.
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  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by duane1969 View Post
    1. Don't care either way. They just need to resolve it without violence and affecting the international community.

    2. Ever heard of Israel? I have never seen Egypt as a true ally. They profit from oil...that is where their allegiance lies.

    3. If they do then it is just one more Middle East country with a bleak future.

    4. Bush will never get credit for being right about anything. Obama will be praised if things in Egypt turn into a democracy even tho he hasn't done anything to influence it.

    5. Iran and Egypt are vastly different IMO. Iran is too much of a police state for that to happen. Just like Saddam Hussein I think Ahmedinijad would quietly have a few hundred thousand people eliminated and the problem would be squelched. He will not relinquish power without mass genocide of the opposition on his way out.

    1. This can't be done without affecting the international community. Not at this point.

    2. You're right. The only reason we give Egypt as much as we do is because their basically Israel's lone "friend" out there.

    3. Yup.

    4. I don't think that's the case. You know me, I don't exactly sing Bush's praises. But I would like to think that people are reasonable enough to notice that he had a lot to do with this. More so than Obama. He deserves credit when credit is due.

    5. See, I don't think Iran and Egypt are wildly different. Both have EXTREMELY young populations (2/3 of Egyptians have never known another leader than Mubarek), and that younger population holds one thing to be of great importance: Money. Through our increasingly globalized world, countries that have previously been somewhat shut out from the western world are beginning to see exactly what our lives are like and what kinds of freedoms we enjoy. That's one of the reasons the movement in Egypt has become what it is. Granted, I'm with you on the fact that the two countries are different in their media. But Iranians aren't stupid, they see these things.

    I agree about Ahmedinijad's likely behavior. Any revolutionary change brought about in Iran will be drawn-out and very painful for the Iranian people.
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  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by pghin08 View Post
    4. I don't think that's the case. You know me, I don't exactly sing Bush's praises. But I would like to think that people are reasonable enough to notice that he had a lot to do with this. More so than Obama. He deserves credit when credit is due.

    5. See, I don't think Iran and Egypt are wildly different. Both have EXTREMELY young populations (2/3 of Egyptians have never known another leader than Mubarek), and that younger population holds one thing to be of great importance: Money. Through our increasingly globalized world, countries that have previously been somewhat shut out from the western world are beginning to see exactly what our lives are like and what kinds of freedoms we enjoy. That's one of the reasons the movement in Egypt has become what it is. Granted, I'm with you on the fact that the two countries are different in their media. But Iranians aren't stupid, they see these things.

    I agree about Ahmedinijad's likely behavior. Any revolutionary change brought about in Iran will be drawn-out and very painful for the Iranian people.
    4.) The current media praises Obama for the slightest of successes and blames Bush for Obama's every failure and shortcoming. Any steps towards a democracy in Egypt will be credited to Obama (if any US politican). The only word you will hear of Bush will be on FoxNews which will be ignored and discounted as partisan attempts to steal the glory from Obama.

    The current media is so pro-left right now that they can't even turn right when their GPS tells them to. Expecting them to point out that Bush predicted/suggested this is out of the question in their minds.

    5) I think where Iran and Egypt differ is outside influence. Iran controls everything. Except for some short-wave radios that broadcast into Iran and a smattering of satellite TV, Iranians only know what the government lets them know. There is a good chance that most Iranians don't know the full scope of what is going on in Egypt right now. The Iranian government blocks access to websites about politics, religions (other than the aproved religion), human rights...they even block YouTube and Facebook.

    My point is this. If you put a puppy in a box and keep him there while he grows up then he never learns that there is a sun and wind and dirt and grass. All he knows is the box. Ahmadinejad and his predecessors have kept Iran in a box for decades.

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  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by duane1969 View Post
    4.) The current media praises Obama for the slightest of successes and blames Bush for Obama's every failure and shortcoming. Any steps towards a democracy in Egypt will be credited to Obama (if any US politican). The only word you will hear of Bush will be on FoxNews which will be ignored and discounted as partisan attempts to steal the glory from Obama.

    The current media is so pro-left right now that they can't even turn right when their GPS tells them to. Expecting them to point out that Bush predicted/suggested this is out of the question in their minds.

    5) I think where Iran and Egypt differ is outside influence. Iran controls everything. Except for some short-wave radios that broadcast into Iran and a smattering of satellite TV, Iranians only know what the government lets them know. There is a good chance that most Iranians don't know the full scope of what is going on in Egypt right now. The Iranian government blocks access to websites about politics, religions (other than the aproved religion), human rights...they even block YouTube and Facebook.

    My point is this. If you put a puppy in a box and keep him there while he grows up then he never learns that there is a sun and wind and dirt and grass. All he knows is the box. Ahmadinejad and his predecessors have kept Iran in a box for decades.

    4) You and I are just going to disagree on this. But did you see CNN's coverage of the SOTU? They LAMBASTED Obama. Fox News had far more favorable coverage. Two years ago? Yeah, I'd buy that. Obama was new and fresh and his approval rating was through the roof. But most things I see (aside from fairly even-keeled coverage for the last month) are very critical of Obama.

    5) I agree. But that can't last forever. Just like it didn't last forever in China and other places. In order for that to happen, the inner forces (Iranian government) need to be more powerful than the outer forces (internet/western society). That's just unsustainable. It's impossible to think that aspects of western society haven't leaked into Iran. And it's like having a crack in your car windshield. The longer it exists, the wider it gets, until finally you're shoveling snow off your dashboard.
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  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by pghin08 View Post
    4) You and I are just going to disagree on this. But did you see CNN's coverage of the SOTU? They LAMBASTED Obama. Fox News had far more favorable coverage. Two years ago? Yeah, I'd buy that. Obama was new and fresh and his approval rating was through the roof. But most things I see (aside from fairly even-keeled coverage for the last month) are very critical of Obama.

    5) I agree. But that can't last forever. Just like it didn't last forever in China and other places. In order for that to happen, the inner forces (Iranian government) need to be more powerful than the outer forces (internet/western society). That's just unsustainable. It's impossible to think that aspects of western society haven't leaked into Iran. And it's like having a crack in your car windshield. The longer it exists, the wider it gets, until finally you're shoveling snow off your dashboard.
    My question would be what did CNN blast Obama about? That would speak volumes......
    My quick take on this subject, this is a pretty big deal that very easily could lead to a third world war. Isreal would be surrounded by radical Islam if the brotherhood take control. If that happens, we would most certainly be forced to decide how close our alliance with Isreal really is. i just hope it doesn't happen with Obama in office. But I believe it is going to happen regardless. Most likely in the next 5-10 yrs or so.
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  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by sanfran22 View Post
    My question would be what did CNN blast Obama about? That would speak volumes......
    My quick take on this subject, this is a pretty big deal that very easily could lead to a third world war. Isreal would be surrounded by radical Islam if the brotherhood take control. If that happens, we would most certainly be forced to decide how close our alliance with Isreal really is. i just hope it doesn't happen with Obama in office. But I believe it is going to happen regardless. Most likely in the next 5-10 yrs or so.
    I think the exact opposite will happen. The movements going on in the Middle East, in the long-term, I think will be beneficial to the US. Just like ol' W said.
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  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by pghin08 View Post
    I think the exact opposite will happen. The movements going on in the Middle East, in the long-term, I think will be beneficial to the US. Just like ol' W said.
    I don't know man, I'm very suspect. Those movements brought us ahmadjinidad, hamas, hezbollah ect........I'm not sure these folks grasp the concept of freedom.
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  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by sanfran22 View Post
    I don't know man, I'm very suspect. Those movements brought us ahmadjinidad, hamas, hezbollah ect........I'm not sure these folks grasp the concept of freedom.
    This is Egypt though. They're a far more refined country (okay, well, Cairo and Alexandria are) and the leader they're dealing with isn't a murderous dictator. I think this has a lot of potential. But hey, all we can do from here is watch.
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