Who would you give the NL MVP to?

[the 'stache]

Let's be fair though, Braun plays in a bandbox which will inflate his numbers slightly, Kemp had a higher OPS+ (slightly higher, that is) than Braun last year and same thus far for Posey. (Although, I don't think he's the MVP).

And I feel like I say this far too often, but RBI is an incredibly meaningless stat. It's all based on chances with runners on base.

Ok, so if RBI is meaningless, where's the support for Kemp having that much better a season than Braun? 6 home runs? Braun had a higher batting average, 60 less strikeouts, a better stolen base percentage, and he helped his team to 96 wins. A slightly higher OPS + and 6 HR doesn't sound like that big of a margin.

[the 'stache]

And guys, I'm not saying I'm right or wrong, I'm just trying to have a good discussion on this. I respect your opinions. I hope you know that.

[GiantsSB42Champs]

@lambeau
Braun's not invaluable to the Brewers? Especially after losing Prince Fielder? Where would the Brewers be right now without him? Certainly not in the playoff race.

dont hate ya or braun but i like posey too and last i checkd Brewers are certainly not in the playoff race with ya so i dont think that is a practical argument

[gladdyontherise]

Ok, so if RBI is meaningless, where's the support for Kemp having that much better a season than Braun? 6 home runs? Braun had a higher batting average, 60 less strikeouts, a better stolen base percentage, and he helped his team to 96 wins. A slightly higher OPS + and 6 HR doesn't sound like that big of a margin.

It's not a "big" margin, but it doesn't need to be. Because (using an example) Kemp making the Dodgers an 80 win team instead of 70 is the same as Braun making an 80 win team a 90 win team, right?

His oWAR (I'm looking at baseballreference, not sure what fangraphs said) was higher as well (I ignore dWAR because I don't find it to really show anything. For example, Jhonny Peralta has a dWAR of almost 1 this season, and his defense stinks).

[the 'stache]

In 2011, Fangraphs had Kemp's WAR as 8.7, and Braun's as 7.8. But center fielders get an extra point added on to WAR. So position aside, they are nearly identical (with Braun having a tenth of a point advantage)

In 2011, Fangraphs had Kemp with isolated power of .262. They had Braun with a .265 ISO for 2011. Kemp's win probability added was 6.43. Braun's was 6.30.
In 2011, Fangraphs had Kemp with a batting value of 58.6. Braun for the same season had a batting value of 59.3.

I just don't see where Kemp has this advantage statistically where it can be said that "Kemp had a far better year".

Let's look at this season (again, using Fangraphs)

Buster Posey, with his positional bonus included (I believe bonus is given to catcher, shortstop and center fielders): 2012 WAR of 5.5
Ryan Braun's 2012 WAR: 7.8
Andrew McCutchen 6.2

It's not even close.

Batting value:
Posey 33.0
Braun 48.3
McCutchen 41.1

[the 'stache]

@lambeau
Braun's not invaluable to the Brewers? Especially after losing Prince Fielder? Where would the Brewers be right now without him? Certainly not in the playoff race.

dont hate ya or braun but i like posey too and last i checkd Brewers are certainly not in the playoff race with ya so i dont think that is a practical argument

Understood, and I don't take it that you're hating on Braun ;)

Brewers are up 4 to 2 in the 8th inning. Nothing is a given with our bullpen, but if this score holds, we're at 69-70, 5 games out of the second wildcard spot with 23 games left to play. One more game tomorrow against the Cards, then we play 6 at home. Anything is possible, and we're certainly not out of it the way we've been playing recently.

[the 'stache]

2012 WAR batters per fangraphs:

Mike Trout 8.3
Ryan Braun 7.2
David Wright 6.5
Michael Bourn 6.3
Andrew McCutchen 6.2

Braun is clearly the best in the NL this season. And he's 3-4 tonight.

[gladdyontherise]

In 2011, Fangraphs had Kemp's WAR as 8.7, and Braun's as 7.8. But center fielders get an extra point added on to WAR. So position aside, they are nearly identical (with Braun having a tenth of a point advantage)

In 2011, Fangraphs had Kemp with isolated power of .262. They had Braun with a .265 ISO for 2011. Kemp's win probability added was 6.43. Braun's was 6.30.
In 2011, Fangraphs had Kemp with a batting value of 58.6. Braun for the same season had a batting value of 59.3.

I just don't see where Kemp has this advantage statistically where it can be said that "Kemp had a far better year".

Let's look at this season (again, using Fangraphs)

Buster Posey, with his positional bonus included (I believe bonus is given to catcher, shortstop and center fielders): 2012 WAR of 5.5
Ryan Braun's 2012 WAR: 7.8
Andrew McCutchen 6.2

It's not even close.

Batting value:
Posey 33.0
Braun 48.3
McCutchen 41.1

The position is relevant though in terms of value.

And I've already agreed Braun should be the MVP this year, I just know he won't because the silly narrative that your team needs to be a playoff team.

[the 'stache]

Kemp is 3 for his last 30, and is out of the lineup again. He should not be in the MVP discussion
McCutchen should be out of it as well. The last month (since August 8th), as teams are trying to secure a playoff position, McCutchen is batting .232 with 1 HR and 13 RBI.

The race should be Braun and Posey. Posey has been one of the best hitters in the majors since the second half, but he's cooled slightly in the last month: .315 AVG, 1 HR, 13 RBI with a .456 SLG and a .856 OPS

Braun, though, has been absolutely on fire. Since August 8th: .347 AVG, 19 runs, 9 HR, 26 RBI with a .670 SLG. and a 1.063 OPS.

Braun has the better numbers for the season...by far, and has the better numbers by far down the stretch.

Just making my case here for Brauny. :)

[duwal]

Kemp is 3 for his last 30, and is out of the lineup again. He should not be in the MVP discussion
McCutchen should be out of it as well. The last month (since August 8th), as teams are trying to secure a playoff position, McCutchen is batting .232 with 1 HR and 13 RBI.

The race should be Braun and Posey. Posey has been one of the best hitters in the majors since the second half, but he's cooled slightly in the last month: .315 AVG, 1 HR, 13 RBI with a .456 SLG and a .856 OPS

Braun, though, has been absolutely on fire. Since August 8th: .347 AVG, 19 runs, 9 HR, 26 RBI with a .670 SLG. and a 1.063 OPS.

Braun has the better numbers for the season...by far, and has the better numbers by far down the stretch.

Just making my case here for Brauny. :)

we all understand that but it still seems like you're underestimating how big of a role Posey has on his team. Posey gets his 4 at bats in each game like Braun does but he doesn't just stand in the outfield waiting for flyballs to come his way or look to throw to the cutoff man a couple times a game, Posey also has to work with every member of the pitching staff and study the rest of the batters in the league to know which pitches to throw to them and throw out potential base runners. Statistical numbers are not the only thing to consider when choosing the most valuable person for their team.