Who would you give the NL MVP to?

**the 'stache** · 09-12-2012, 05:09 AM

"The Brewers stink this year".

Ah, the bullpen stinks this year. And even with the bullpen blowing 27 saves, we're back to .500. The Brewers have been one of the hottest teams in the majors winning 17 of their last 22.

And 3rd or maybe 4th place? Are you kidding?? Who's ahead of him except for maybe Posey?

**the 'stache** · 09-12-2012, 05:16 AM

Originally Posted by duwal

It's more absurd to just take someone's distance homerun totals and just supplant them to another park and say that those same homeruns would still reach over the fence. You might not be accounting for wind current or less carry with nighttime play and outdoor elements. In the case of AT&T Park you have to deal with the wind and wetness from the coast. Guaranteed a fair amount of Braun's homeruns would have fallen just short and been either an out or a double/triple. Left center is 384, right center is 421. The shortest distance to home place is right corner which is 309 but that is offset with a 20 foot wall. He launches the ball into the air with a 15 mile per hour wind coming in and most can guess what could happen. There is a reason why Posey's road power stats are virtually the same as Braun's while at home he's just been able to get 6 over.

Posey on the road: 249 ab, 15 doubles, 15 homeruns, 55 rbi's, .317 avg
Braun on the road: 264 ab, 15 doubles, 16 homeruns, 44 rbi's, .311 avg

Posey at home: 212 ab, 14 doubles, 6 homeruns, 34 rbi's, .344 avg
Braun at home: 253 ab, 14 doubles, 22 homeruns, 56 rbi's, .312 avg

There's just one problem with your hypothesis. His career numbers at AT&T Park.

Ryan Braun has 66 career at bats at AT&T Park. He's got a lifetime batting average of .364 there, with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 6 home runs and 14 RBI. He has a 1.227 lifetime OPS.

That's a home run every eleven at bats playing in San Francisco. Now, I realize that Posey, too, would get a bump in his production playing at Miller Park (he's gone yard 6 times in 24 at bats, just amazing), I don't buy that Braun wouldn't hit just as many home runs in San Francisco.

**the 'stache** · 09-12-2012, 05:39 AM

Ryan Braun for NL MVP: A strong case can be made

http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/stor...waukee-brewers

We’re talking about the National League MVP race, a race Braun won last season. He is having the best offensive season in the league this season (really, it isn’t even that close). He clearly has been the best player.

3rd or 4th place. Ya, right.

**gladdyontherise** · 09-12-2012, 12:17 PM

Originally Posted by lambeausouth

There's just one problem with your hypothesis. His career numbers at AT&T Park.

Ryan Braun has 66 career at bats at AT&T Park. He's got a lifetime batting average of .364 there, with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 6 home runs and 14 RBI. He has a 1.227 lifetime OPS.

That's a home run every eleven at bats playing in San Francisco. Now, I realize that Posey, too, would get a bump in his production playing at Miller Park (he's gone yard 6 times in 24 at bats, just amazing), I don't buy that Braun wouldn't hit just as many home runs in San Francisco.

You're using an extremely small sample size to try and rationalize that OPS+ isn't a good stat, because it doesn't favor Braun it seems.

**duwal** · 09-12-2012, 02:25 PM

Originally Posted by lambeausouth

Ryan Braun for NL MVP: A strong case can be made

3rd or 4th place. Ya, right.

yes a strong case can be made for him, he may be the best player but that is still completely different than what some would say being the most valuable player in the league. There will be a good percentage that think that the MVP has to be from a contending team. If the MVP wasn't on the team, the team in most cases would miss the playoffs. Without Ryan Braun the Brewers won't make the playoffs, with Ryan Braun....the Brewers won't make the playoffs. By no means is it his fault at all but there is some logical thinking to that. How valuable is a top notch player on a team that is going nowhere? This is where it would make sense for MLB to have awards like the NHL does. They have separate awards for the best player in the league and the most valuable player in the league

**gladdyontherise** · 09-12-2012, 02:44 PM

Originally Posted by duwal

yes a strong case can be made for him, he may be the best player but that is still completely different than what some would say being the most valuable player in the league. There will be a good percentage that think that the MVP has to be from a contending team. If the MVP wasn't on the team, the team in most cases would miss the playoffs. Without Ryan Braun the Brewers won't make the playoffs, with Ryan Braun....the Brewers won't make the playoffs. By no means is it his fault at all but there is some logical thinking to that. How valuable is a top notch player on a team that is going nowhere? This is where it would make sense for MLB to have awards like the NHL does. They have separate awards for the best player in the league and the most valuable player in the league

You know...there are 25 (until September) guys on a roster.

If a guy makes his team (for example) a 70 win team instead instead of 60 win team, and another makes his team a 90 win team instead of winning 81 games, isn't the guy who made his team 10 wins better more valuable than the guy making his team 9 wins better?

This is why I don't understand the playoff narrative.

**baseballboy2** · 09-12-2012, 04:15 PM

If it was an award for the best player and not the most VALUABLE player, then I can see making a strong case for Braun, but he really has no value to his team this season. I backed Braun last year over Kemp for the same reason. Did I go a little too far with saying that they stink this year? Maybe. But is .500 good by any means? Not really.

**the 'stache** · 09-12-2012, 11:04 PM

Originally Posted by baseballboy2

but he really has no value to his team this season. I backed Braun last year over Kemp for the same reason.

Braun has had no value to the Brewers this season? Seriously? LOL

Braun's play has been huge, especially after losing Prince Fielder in the offseason. If the Brewer bullpen doesn't blow 27 saves...hell, if they blow 5 fewer saves, we're 76-65, and in the lead for a wild card. Milwaukee is third in the majors in runs scored, and 5th in slugging. Braun is a big part of that.

By the way, the Brewers just swept the Braves, swept the Pirates, and took 2 out of 3 against the Cardinals (and only didn't sweep them because Kameron Loe blew a save). We've won 18 of our last 23, including 8 of 9 against the three teams ahead of us in the playoff hunt.

Brewers are now 3 games out of the playoffs.

**baseballboy2** · 09-13-2012, 03:21 PM

Instead of making a case against Braun, I'll make a case for Posey. In the first half of the season, it was quite evident that Melky Cabrera was leading the charge on that team. We all know that he got nailed for PEDs. Since then, and really since the all-star break, Posey has stepped up and took over the role. Posey also plays the most physically demanding position in the game. To catch day in and day out and still put up the numbers he puts up, it's unheard of.

July - .381 3 HR 21 RBI
Aug - .371 6 HR 21 RBI
Sep - .370 2 HR 7 RBI

**baseballboy2** · 09-13-2012, 03:24 PM

Originally Posted by lambeausouth

Braun has had no value to the Brewers this season? Seriously? LOL

Braun's play has been huge, especially after losing Prince Fielder in the offseason. If the Brewer bullpen doesn't blow 27 saves...hell, if they blow 5 fewer saves, we're 76-65, and in the lead for a wild card. Milwaukee is third in the majors in runs scored, and 5th in slugging. Braun is a big part of that.

By the way, the Brewers just swept the Braves, swept the Pirates, and took 2 out of 3 against the Cardinals (and only didn't sweep them because Kameron Loe blew a save). We've won 18 of our last 23, including 8 of 9 against the three teams ahead of us in the playoff hunt.

Brewers are now 3 games out of the playoffs.

Like Duwal said, how valuable is a top notch player on a team that is going nowhere? Not to say that the Brewers aren't going anywhere, but at this point in the season, it's going to be tough to catch ground.