Grading market becoming saturated?

[Scottish Punk]

I am proposing a question in hopes to spark a conversation. Something I have noticed more recently with graded cards sales. It seems the market has become fairly saturated with the main RCs (I don't know about patches/autos) from both PSA and BGS. This has caused all the prices for the gem mint site to go up and all the rest go down. Some of the top end rookies still hold value no matter what, i.e Joe Montana. It seems a few years ago, you can send in a HOF's like Dickerson, Lott, Taylor and get your money back plus the value of the card if it was an 8 or 8.5, you know nt-mt cards that was the norm pre-grading. Now I have seen even 9's come back unsold for what amounts to high beckett raw. If it isn't a 9.5 or psa 10, you might as well keep it raw.

This would seem like a win for a buyer, getting some really nice looking graded cards for a good value. I see two potential problems. One, the difference between a 9 to a 9.5 or a psa 9 to psa 10 is so small that you can send the same card in multiple times and get both grades multiple times. Two, this trend only helps the big submitters that can afford to resubmit border line cards until they get the grade they want. I think this could drive out future collectors from submitting card in the first place.

It is probably worse for newer cards. You can pull a card out of a pack, put in a top loader and send it in. If it receives a 9, suddenly that card has something "wrong" with it. You leave it raw, people will look at the card and simply enjoy it. Anybody else agree with this?

[pwaldo]

It was over saturated a couple years ago. In 2001 you had several companies release boxes of cards that contained a graded card as a draw.....now that wouldn't fly.

I remember Toys R Us have value boxes in 2003 that contained either an autograph, game used card, or a BGS graded card. The cards ended up being from 2001 Fleer Authority (one of the sets I mentioned above) and because you could pull an Ichiro or Pujols (I never did) I bought those boxes. You could tell which box contained the mystery bonus card because the card was inserted into an envelope. Obviously the one that was bulging and contained something that couldn't fit inside of it contained the graded one. In retrospect I should have avoided those and went for the game used and autographs since even game used cards were still great sellers back then.

But more back on your point supply and demand would be a reason for the market being very soft. Before many people didn't grade cards. Now it seems everyone sends stuff in so you have a glut of graded cards.....so much so that they send in cards that aren't even profitable to get graded. Until people wise up and stop doing something that is illogical financially then the market will never correct itself.

[sschind]

It was inevitable. People see that graded cards bring more money so they get more cards graded. Since only a small percentage bring 10s the numbers of the lesser grades increases (you would think that the number of 10s would go up by as well but apparently they are very picky on what makes a 10.) I'm sure the number of 10s has gone up but not by the same percentage as the lesser grades. By having more cards grade out lower you are effectively making the 10s more scarce in comparison which will drive up their price. Personally, I hate graded cards more that any other type. I don't care what they say and what criteria they use there is a degree of subjectivity to it. Many of you have gotten cards back that you feel were incorrectly graded. Some of you report questionable grades when you know the cards were not subject to any alteration for example, a card that you personally pulled from a pack that came back with evidence of trimming. It went from the factory to the pack to you to BGS (or PSA or whichever company you used) so you know it wasn't trimmed but they say otherwise.

All in all grading just increases one of the biggest problems that I see within the hobby. People looking at cards for investment purposes. I don't need some schmuck sitting in a cubicle telling me if I have a damaged card which will in turn cause other people to look upon it and me through extension, with disdain because it is not perfect. Many people are getting tired of GU and autos because there are so many and now graded cards are following suit.

Give me lots of cheap base and low end inserts of my Packers and I will be happy.

[yazfan71]

Actually, one of the biggest problems was the price guide. This truly was a hobby until they came out!

[Scottish Punk]

Yeah Steve, your logic is the same as what I was thinking. I also think the grading companies are cautious of giving out 10's/9.5s. They want to make sure to keep the incentive to re-grade the card. The grading may be a bubble of sorts, especially 70's cards. I see people paying hundreds of dollars for a psa 10 common from a 73 or 74 set. This surely can't continue, reminds of the housing market.

[sschind]

Actually, one of the biggest problems was the price guide. This truly was a hobby until they came out!

I agree with that 100%. As soon as you had a 3rd party start telling people what their cards were worth everyone became an instant millionaire and became a seller.

[70sbestcardboard]

If we are to reason by that logic then collecting cards was never truly a hobby. Jefferson Burdick was the first to publish card prices back in the what, 20's or 30's? Now, do I agree with a 3rd party telling mw what my cards are worth? Jury is still out. But we do know that Beckett and SMR can publish any price they want to for graded cards and when they go up for auction they will 90% of the time bring in more than book especially 9's and 10's. Economics don't go out of style, a product or thing is only worth what someone will pay for it. It's the same for stamp collectors and old car enthusists. Those factions have price guides too. No matter how many price guides there are in existence this is truly a hobby for me. Just my .02 thanks

[ajcorleone]

Price guides are a killer because you go to most shows and shops people are selling 60 to 75% of book.Unfortunately people see that value and think they struck gold.Plus every month beckett shows off there top 3 cards per sport and you see a grade 9.5 or 10 Jordan,Kobe,or even a Montana rookie got for thousands.So then we spend out hard earned money on a card that looks fabulous and it comes back an 8.I am starting to think grading is a scam,I posted about experience with BGS with some great replies.But when you have the prospect of money making in the form of graded cards you get saturation ,hell you get a downright flood.

[70sbestcardboard]

Addendum #1 to my post
I think where my disagreement lies is the fact that party "A" says card "B" is worth "C" and then card "B" goes up for sell and it is expected to get a certain amount instead of letting the market decide. you are right about that ajcorleone. From day one I have championed against the fact that Beckett publishes prices AND they grade cards!! Can you say utterly biased? Who is to say the grading companies keep high grades to a minmum? It's possible.

[ajcorleone]

Yes and the opinion on the second market is if it is not beckett or pSA graded well it must be trash.Whos is to say that?I was looking foward to grading some PC and some higher end items thinking it would help with sale or trade for higher end material.That i see now is not the case.