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  1. #1

    With #'d and auto cards how do you see the value of sports cards going forward?

    Just curious because I just saw that article on Yahoo about the cousins that found over 3 million dollars worth of baseball cards in their aunt's attic. http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/482247.../#.UJKHYKOVzbg

    It seems that the cards are extremely rare and no one knows how many could be around, if any. That got me thinking. Today, with #'d auto cards, will we see values like this in the future? Lets say 100 years from now someone comes forward with an autographed Aaron Rodgers rookie card 1/1. Knowing that is the only one of its kind will that make the value increase like we've never seen before?? Or has the watered down auto and #'d card market shoot itself in the foot?
    Sports enthusiast. Green Bay Packer and Milwaukee Brewer fan.
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  2. #2
    Good questions. No real way of knowing. Only time will tell. Just to be on the safe side though I am taking great care of my collection and plan on passing it on to family members one day.
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  3. #3
    The thing though is that isn't the only 1/1 autograph of Aaron Rodgers. Yes it will be that only version but companies make multiple 1/1 cards from sets and you have several different companies and sets. Aaron Rodgers could basically have over 100 cards that are 1/1 autograph rookie cards. So why would you pay a million dollars for something that you could get that was basically the same thing from a different product?

    When you had tobacco cards of Ty Cobb and Honus Wagner they didn't really make that many different sets so the pool is very limited to choose from....then you combine that with the scarcity equals their current value. Modern cards aren't really the same.
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  4. #4
    Basic rule of economics: any time there is a significant increase in supply, relative demand and real values will accordingly decrease. The market today is very watered down on many fronts. Except for top-tier players, whose autographed content is almost always SP'd, the larger and deeper the pool of cards available to collectors will always translate into prices coming down.

    Over the long term, you can expect to see value of course remain with superstars long after they have retired and gone to the Hall of Fame. To build on the Rodgers example - if he wins a couple more Super Bowls and establishes himself among the all-time greats of the NFL, of course there will be substantial value retained in his cards. 100 years from now who knows how many of those SP Authentic RC's or rare cards will still exist. While collectors today are more aware and protective of our cards than our grandparents may have been in their heyday, time will still take its toll on supply. Even a card that's /999 upon release in 2005-06 may lose up to 10% in the course of a decade because people just don't care anymore or those cards remain in unopened boxes destroyed by companies looking to purge inventory.
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  5. #5
    The scarcity factor is no longer there,sure the Rodgers was a 1/1 auto from a certain set,but there will be thousands of his auto's floating around by the time he retires.I really don't see any of today's cards being that extremely rare attic find,Having tons of cards in my collection it kills me to say that.I think your superstar autographed cards will always hold a certain value,but just think the card companies will be making cut signature cards from today's autographed cards,wow a Derek Jeter cut signature,what is that tiny fleer writing next to it.I think the only way the hobby can correct itself is to start from scratch,go back to the basics have no more game-used cards or seed them at an astronomical rate,same thing with autographs.I say make card collecting what it once was,a nice hobby that isn't too expensive and make the main focus set building,remember trading with your friends in the schoolyard,the value of the cards didn't matter but it helped each of you complete a set.Sorry to go off on a tangent,I guess my coffee is working,take care Steve.
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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by spuds1961 View Post
    I think the only way the hobby can correct itself is to start from scratch,go back to the basics have no more game-used cards or seed them at an astronomical rate,same thing with autographs.I say make card collecting what it once was,a nice hobby that isn't too expensive and make the main focus set building,remember trading with your friends in the schoolyard,the value of the cards didn't matter but it helped each of you complete a set.Sorry to go off on a tangent,I guess my coffee is working,take care Steve.
    The only problem with seeding the hits is that with all that are produced today the total amount of base cards produced needed to do such a thing would just put the hobby back to where it was in the late 80's & early 90's, probably worse. Sure the cost per box/pack may be cheaper, but after collectors build their sets many would be done buying anymore because the odds are so high. The hits would stand a chance at actually never being discovered or even worse destroyed by some that think the overproduced cards are just garbage. For many of the newer members to the hobby that have been spoiled by so many GU & autographed cards that are in the market today, this would drive them away. I do remember the time when collecting was like you mentioned & I do miss those days, but we are from a different generation of collectors Steve & we are definitely in the minority in the hobby this day & age.
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  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by yazfan71 View Post
    The only problem with seeding the hits is that with all that are produced today the total amount of base cards produced needed to do such a thing would just put the hobby back to where it was in the late 80's & early 90's, probably worse. Sure the cost per box/pack may be cheaper, but after collectors build their sets many would be done buying anymore because the odds are so high. The hits would stand a chance at actually never being discovered or even worse destroyed by some that think the overproduced cards are just garbage. For many of the newer members to the hobby that have been spoiled by so many GU & autographed cards that are in the market today, this would drive them away. I do remember the time when collecting was like you mentioned & I do miss those days, but we are from a different generation of collectors Steve & we are definitely in the minority in the hobby this day & age.
    I think his point was not to make as many. Obviously you don't keep making a bazillion GU and Autos and then make enough base cards to seed them 1 per box or 1 per case. You only make a 1000 of them and adjust your seeding accordingly. As far as driving the new breed of collector away, that is a possibility but at the risk of sounding insensitive, they are the reasons we are lamenting for the old days anyway. Get rid of them and a lot of the old guys might come back. I can't tell you how many people tell me that they have been buying certain (usually topps) sets every year for their kids because they have all the Topps sets from when they were kids. Their sets from the 70's may be worth something but I don't have the heart to tell them they might as well take the money they spend on the new sets and buy lottery tickets. The problem is that they buy the sets and store them away. They don't collect they just plan on giving them to their kids one day and say enjoy. Well, the first thing these kids are going to do is look for a place to sell them. Its like the old Married With Children episode where Al decides that Bud's new hobby will be card collecting. If the kids are not involved they won't care.

    I agree with spuds. This is what I would like to see in a set such as topps where you have over 300 cards in a set and 10-15 cards in a team set with 24 packs per box and 10-12 cards per pack. You still have your subsets (rookies, all stars etc.) seeded at the same rate as base, You have a 1 per 4 pack parallel a 1 per box parallel and a 1 per case parallel. I don't think any parallel seeding should go any less than this. If you want to make cards with seeding less than 1 per case make them a special set. Authographs should be special and be no more than 2 or 3 per case with maybe a auto set seeded much rarer just to give some people something to chase. Have several GU set or other special set with no more 20 cards per set seeded at 2 or 3 per box and maybe a different set at 1 per box and 1 per case but these sets should have no parallels You can still throw in a few much rarer cards if you want. My seedings might even sound a bit high for some of you but like Yaz says, you can't cut them off completely.

    for a player star player collector you would have 1 product (Topps) with maybe 6-10 possible cards of your guy in it (1-2 base 2-3 parallels, 2 or 3 sets depending on his talent level and position, and maybe 1 or 2 I'd like to see 15-20 card sets dedicated to scoring (TD kings) passing (Pass Time) rushing (Rush Hour) receiving (Catching Fire)

    The hobby is different than it was that is no doubt. Can we change it back and do we even want to change it? Some of us would emphatically say yes and others would, with equal enthusiasm, say no way. The one thing that is certain is that money is what will drive the hobby. Maybe if enough people lose their shirts due to the investing mentality things will shift back to the collecting mode but the thing is, for every person who lost money someone else made money (someone had to sell them that card and they most likely made a profit) so its a wash. The one who lost money this time will continue to try to be the one who makes it next time and its only after they lose out so many times that they decide enough is enough (hows that for a nice April Wine reference which also takes me back to my favorite time for collecting)

    I'm really just rambling now, I totally lost my train of thought as I got caught up in the good old days of "collecting" and good music (I've got "ah Leah" blasting right now) so I'll end now with this. Change or no change (for the hobby) we just have to find a way to enjoy our little part of it. We don't have to keep up with anyone and we shouldn't be trying to.
    Steve Schindler

    Collect what you want to collect. Collect players and cards that you like. Collect what you can afford. Collect for you, not to try to impress someone else. If you do this you will much more likely to enjoy the hobby and stay with it.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by sschind View Post
    I think his point was not to make as many. Obviously you don't keep making a bazillion GU and Autos and then make enough base cards to seed them 1 per box or 1 per case. You only make a 1000 of them and adjust your seeding accordingly. As far as driving the new breed of collector away, that is a possibility but at the risk of sounding insensitive, they are the reasons we are lamenting for the old days anyway. Get rid of them and a lot of the old guys might come back. I can't tell you how many people tell me that they have been buying certain (usually topps) sets every year for their kids because they have all the Topps sets from when they were kids. Their sets from the 70's may be worth something but I don't have the heart to tell them they might as well take the money they spend on the new sets and buy lottery tickets. The problem is that they buy the sets and store them away. They don't collect they just plan on giving them to their kids one day and say enjoy. Well, the first thing these kids are going to do is look for a place to sell them. Its like the old Married With Children episode where Al decides that Bud's new hobby will be card collecting. If the kids are not involved they won't care.

    I agree with spuds. This is what I would like to see in a set such as topps where you have over 300 cards in a set and 10-15 cards in a team set with 24 packs per box and 10-12 cards per pack. You still have your subsets (rookies, all stars etc.) seeded at the same rate as base, You have a 1 per 4 pack parallel a 1 per box parallel and a 1 per case parallel. I don't think any parallel seeding should go any less than this. If you want to make cards with seeding less than 1 per case make them a special set. Authographs should be special and be no more than 2 or 3 per case with maybe a auto set seeded much rarer just to give some people something to chase. Have several GU set or other special set with no more 20 cards per set seeded at 2 or 3 per box and maybe a different set at 1 per box and 1 per case but these sets should have no parallels You can still throw in a few much rarer cards if you want. My seedings might even sound a bit high for some of you but like Yaz says, you can't cut them off completely.

    for a player star player collector you would have 1 product (Topps) with maybe 6-10 possible cards of your guy in it (1-2 base 2-3 parallels, 2 or 3 sets depending on his talent level and position, and maybe 1 or 2 I'd like to see 15-20 card sets dedicated to scoring (TD kings) passing (Pass Time) rushing (Rush Hour) receiving (Catching Fire)

    The hobby is different than it was that is no doubt. Can we change it back and do we even want to change it? Some of us would emphatically say yes and others would, with equal enthusiasm, say no way. The one thing that is certain is that money is what will drive the hobby. Maybe if enough people lose their shirts due to the investing mentality things will shift back to the collecting mode but the thing is, for every person who lost money someone else made money (someone had to sell them that card and they most likely made a profit) so its a wash. The one who lost money this time will continue to try to be the one who makes it next time and its only after they lose out so many times that they decide enough is enough (hows that for a nice April Wine reference which also takes me back to my favorite time for collecting)

    I'm really just rambling now, I totally lost my train of thought as I got caught up in the good old days of "collecting" and good music (I've got "ah Leah" blasting right now) so I'll end now with this. Change or no change (for the hobby) we just have to find a way to enjoy our little part of it. We don't have to keep up with anyone and we shouldn't be trying to.
    The whole reason I brought that up was because he suggested inserting them at astronomical rates & my concern is the loss of the cards themselves that may never end up being pulled because of that. The main concern for most hobbyists is what their stuff will be worth someday, whereas the true collectors don't care. The only way that most of those hobbyists could ever hope to make some money is if the card companies stopped producing cards altogether & even then it's really too late. For one, the companies aren't going to stop because people still buy their products so they are making their profit, & secondly, there is so much out there already. Spuds brought up about 1/1's & I'll use my own, limited personal experience with them for an example. I bought my first one for my PC back in 2005 for $100. At that time there were only 365 Yastrzemski 1/1's in existence & I wanted one of them. I never go looking for them anymore specifically because they are usually out of my budget range anyway. But then last month I ran across one on eBay that I picked up for only $12.50. Currently, there are 1,151 listed in the SCF database, but I know there are more than that out there. So in seven years & 800 1/1's later I get one for 87.5% less than what I spent on the first one. It's a trend like that, that makes hobbyists cringe & collectors rejoice! Flood the market or stop making them altogether, either way I'll always have items to add to my PC.

    Just to touch on the music, you started in the A's, so I'll start in the Z's....threw some Zebra in....Tell Me What You Want!
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  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by yazfan71 View Post
    The whole reason I brought that up was because he suggested inserting them at astronomical rates & my concern is the loss of the cards themselves that may never end up being pulled because of that. The main concern for most hobbyists is what their stuff will be worth someday, whereas the true collectors don't care. The only way that most of those hobbyists could ever hope to make some money is if the card companies stopped producing cards altogether & even then it's really too late. For one, the companies aren't going to stop because people still buy their products so they are making their profit, & secondly, there is so much out there already. Spuds brought up about 1/1's & I'll use my own, limited personal experience with them for an example. I bought my first one for my PC back in 2005 for $100. At that time there were only 365 Yastrzemski 1/1's in existence & I wanted one of them. I never go looking for them anymore specifically because they are usually out of my budget range anyway. But then last month I ran across one on eBay that I picked up for only $12.50. Currently, there are 1,151 listed in the SCF database, but I know there are more than that out there. So in seven years & 800 1/1's later I get one for 87.5% less than what I spent on the first one. It's a trend like that, that makes hobbyists cringe & collectors rejoice! Flood the market or stop making them altogether, either way I'll always have items to add to my PC.

    Just to touch on the music, you started in the A's, so I'll start in the Z's....threw some Zebra in....Tell Me What You Want!
    My mistake, I was thinking you meant they would make even more product to allow them to seed the same number of cards at the higher rate. You have a point about that. I wonder how many hits are sitting in warehouses right now.

    Honestly, I don't think I have ever heard of Zebra. It would appear they are in the right time frame but that they were not in the mainstream. I'm not into music much at all (pretty much stopped listening after about 1983 when I graduated high school) and never got into the obscure stuff at all. I checked them out on You tube and while I may have gotten into them back then they didn't do anything for me today. It seems I still like the old stuff I liked back then but if I heard it now for the first time I wouldn't care for it. Go figure.
    Steve Schindler

    Collect what you want to collect. Collect players and cards that you like. Collect what you can afford. Collect for you, not to try to impress someone else. If you do this you will much more likely to enjoy the hobby and stay with it.

  10. #10
    It's a double edged sword. If it wasn't for the explosion of card/memorbillia collecting of the 1980s not only would there be no SCF not to mention most of us would not be collecting cards. That being said the same thing that caused the explosion of our hobby could ultimately lead to its downfall. One of the things card companies must do is something that the cigarette companies used to do. Market their product to kids. No I am not suggesting that kids should smoke and I am very anti tobacco but I remember about 10-15 years ago one of the cigarette companies had a real popular mascot called Joe Camel. It was a cartoon moose that made smoking cool. Their idea was to put images of that in kids heads so they will remember when they are old enough to smoke. Why can't card companies come up with more ways to draw kids in the hobby now so that they will continue in the hobby when they are older. Not for to make money but for the pure enjoyment. I remember the adrenalyn xl series by panini as well as attax by topps. Both of them were low end card products that were tied into a computer game. The cards were also not glossy and were perfect for obtaining autos of their favorite ballplayers. Kids nowadays just like many adults like computer and video games so why not promote card collecting through video games. I still believe that there is room for a lot of growth in our hobby but companies need to understand that kids must come first otherwise in the next 10-20 years there will be no one for them to sell their products too.
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