ROY who will win?

**duane1969** · 01-08-2013, 11:06 AM

Originally Posted by gladdyontherise

Stats > narratives.

But since you reference their record, I'm quite surprised to see you ignore that it was the 3rd easiest schedule in the league, or that Luck turned it over 23 times, or that he had a 54% completion percentage...

Strength of schedule is not in control of the rookie or player. Whether or not their team wins is.

And quite frankly, if a rookie QB throws for 4300 yards and 23 TDs while leading his team to an 11-5 record after they went 2-14 the previous year and all you can come up with is that he turned the ball over 8 or 10 times more than the other ROY candidates, then you have a pretty weak argument.

A rookie QB going to a solid team and doing well isn't as impressive as a rookie QB going to a bad team and doing well. Go back to January and February. What was everybody saying about the Colts? They lost Manning, Dallas Clark, Joe Addai, Jeff Saturday, and everybody said that Luck was screwed and had no chance to succeed on a team that had no talent. Yet he did. Imagine what he could have done had he landed with Seattle and had the benefit of a top running game and defense. Imagine what he could have done had he landed with Washington and had a deep stable of RBs and WRs to go on the field with.

**gladdyontherise** · 01-08-2013, 11:50 AM

Originally Posted by duane1969

Strength of schedule is not in control of the rookie or player. Whether or not their team wins is.

And quite frankly, if a rookie QB throws for 4300 yards and 23 TDs while leading his team to an 11-5 record after they went 2-14 the previous year and all you can come up with is that he turned the ball over 8 or 10 times more than the other ROY candidates, then you have a pretty weak argument.

A rookie QB going to a solid team and doing well isn't as impressive as a rookie QB going to a bad team and doing well. Go back to January and February. What was everybody saying about the Colts? They lost Manning, Dallas Clark, Joe Addai, Jeff Saturday, and everybody said that Luck was screwed and had no chance to succeed on a team that had no talent. Yet he did. Imagine what he could have done had he landed with Seattle and had the benefit of a top running game and defense. Imagine what he could have done had he landed with Washington and had a deep stable of RBs and WRs to go on the field with.

If you're going to acknowledge the record, you can't just ignore that the guy played a weaker schedule than the other two QBs. And it's not just 8 or 10 more turnvers, It's about 15 for RG3 I believe, and 13 for Wilson (I didn't double check that). It's also not the "only thing I have", he had a lower passer rating, worse TD to INT ratio, worse QBR, more turnovers, lower passing yards per attempt, etc vs RG3.

If we're going to use narratives though, Russell Wilson was a 3rd round pick who people said would never succeed because he was too short. You can make a narrative for anything, it doesn't make it right or a good reason. This is also just me, but I find passing yards almost completely irrelevant in todays NFL, they just don't impress me. It's not like the stats are close either, Luck had a significantly worse year statistics wise, and all 3 QBs had their team in the playoffs, and all had atleast 10 wins.

I think you're overrating what Washington had on offense as well. They had Pierre Garcon, a 6th round rookie RB, and? Josh Morgan? Santana Moss? Chris Cooley? Evan Royster?

I'm not trying to be snide, or condensing, or sarcastic, this is a honest question since I don't remember for sure, but (some) of the reasons you're using for Luck, you could use the same for Tim Tebow last year, right? Other than the fact Luck is light years better, they have a lot of similarities, right?

**Star_Cards** · 01-08-2013, 01:24 PM

I don't really think it's that big of a deal who wins, but I think Luck should win it. That said I can see a case for Wilson or RG3 as well. I wouldn't be surprised if Luck or RG3 wins it. I base my opinion off of the teams around each. I give the nod to Luck based off of the record last season and the fact that Washington and Seattle have monster rushing games. I am from Indy so a little bias may sway me a little as well, but I think Luck has rational reasons as to why he could win. However, as I said it wouldn't upset me if Wilson or RG3 wins the award. All three players have played awesome this season.

**duane1969** · 01-08-2013, 03:24 PM

RGIII and Wilson do have less turnovers, they also have a lot less pass attempts and had a lot better running game to take the heat off of them. In my opinion, if RGIII or Wilson had to play with no running game, a depleted offense and under a coach that is in his first year with the team they would have produced a lot worse numbers.

Tebow wasn't a rookie last year, so it doesn't compare, but had he been a rookie then I would have put him in the same category as RGIII and Wislon in that he was on a veteran team with a solid running game and good defense.

I think where we see it differently is you only care about stats and I care about the overall impact on the game and team.

**gladdyontherise** · 01-08-2013, 06:48 PM

Originally Posted by duane1969

RGIII and Wilson do have less turnovers, they also have a lot less pass attempts and had a lot better running game to take the heat off of them. In my opinion, if RGIII or Wilson had to play with no running game, a depleted offense and under a coach that is in his first year with the team they would have produced a lot worse numbers.

Tebow wasn't a rookie last year, so it doesn't compare, but had he been a rookie then I would have put him in the same category as RGIII and Wislon in that he was on a veteran team with a solid running game and good defense.

I think where we see it differently is you only care about stats and I care about the overall impact on the game and team.

So since Luck had more attempts, why do the passing yards matter? Like you said, he had a lot more passes.

If you took Luck off the Colts, they stink, if you took RG3 off the Redskins, they stink, the only team that probably doesn't stink is Seattle because they have a highly paid backup QB (since their team is built well anyways).

You are right, that's where we see it differently, but it's because it's an offense rookie of the year award, and I don't see how team impact has anything to do with that, it's not a MVP award.

**~~RG3NFL~~** · 01-09-2013, 01:52 AM

I actually wish Alfred Morris gets it. I'm a Hawks fan, but he is an absolute beast, not to mention his amazing stats. There is next to no chance he will win, but I would like to see it. Redskins fan have 2 gems in RG3(if he can recover from surgery) and Morris.

**NC30715** · 01-09-2013, 02:23 AM

Originally Posted by RG3NFL

I actually wish Alfred Morris gets it. I'm a Hawks fan, but he is an absolute beast, not to mention his amazing stats. There is next to no chance he will win, but I would like to see it. Redskins fan have 2 gems in RG3(if he can recover from surgery) and Morris.

also a big hawks fan and it would be cool to see i think any of them deserve it still deep down want wilson but a bias hawks fan lol