The Future of the Hobby

[eliteco3]

eliteco, I was thinking the same thing about runningbacks, look at jamal lewis for example he had a 2,000 yard season and a solid career but you can pick his contenders up for $10 on ebay.

Spot on point. Edgerrin James was fantastic for many years but, his sp authentic books at 6-15.

[OZTATAR]

Well current card values i think everyones covered. My worry for the future of the hobby is whether or not there will be one in 20+ years. Right now most collectors started collecting when we were kids and we could walk into a store and buy packs of cards that held the possibility for pulling the best, hottest cards of the year. Now kids can't do that. the most sought after, valuable cards come from packs that cost $300+ and that is causing ALOT of kids to not care about cards. Then you add in computers, video games and other hobbies and there may not be much of a market for cards once the kids born before 2005 ( or whenever the first "high-end" sets were released) start getting old and dying off.
Greed turn cards from a mostly kids only hobby to a more adult hobby and then that greed brought us these "high-end" sets and that has removed almost all chance for kids to have a chance at pulling anything but what most would consider crap or second tier cards. I know when I first started collecting part of the thrill besides pulling my favorite players was also the chance to pull the most sought after and valuable card/s of the year. When I bought a pack I had just as much of a chance at pulling the top rookies best card as the 40 year old guy next to me at the store. I had the same chance of pulling the most desired inserts and hitting the 1 in 1000 pack auto as the adults.
Now kids can buy packs and even boxes but when they can only afford stuff like Score and Topps and at best Chrome and Contenders, while the most sought after cards are in NT and 5-Star it completely takes alot of the thrill out of it for kids. Even the base cards in the high-end sets are alot nicer than those the kids can get of their favorite players in score.

Finally rookie cards aren't what tey once were either. Way back in the day a player had 1 maybe 2 cards their rookie year. Then it became 5 and maybe 10. Now, well most of the cards produced in a players rookie year aren;t ever "true" rookies and the fact we have a term like "true" to describe a rookie is bad enough. So on top of not having a chance to get the best cards, kids are also confused at heck. A kids opens a pack and pulls a card that has a rookies picture they think they got that players rookie card but no it could be an insert or a parallel and then depending on what company it may not even be a licensed product so even the base wont count as a true rookie.
The hobby is not what it used to be and becoming less and less interesting and esirable for kids. Eventually that decreasing interest is gonna lead from a decreased market to a non-existent market. Maybe once that happens all the big money hungry comapnies will leave and we will go back to 1 company producing basic cards for the very few people interested and they will have isane odds at pulling something like an auto or jersey/patch card.
Unless the companies abandon the high-end crap and go back to the basics I don;t see a long-tern future for the hobby. Kids are the future of this hobby and while some here may have their kids interested in it, its far less than it was when I was a kid and eventually the decreasing numbers WILL hit a point to where its next to noone interested in this hobby. Maybe not in the next 2 years but 50-100 years from now, unless things change drastically, I don't see the hobby making it that far.

Actually I believe it is the exact opposite. Why would kids want low-end product? Seriously, in a world of x-box's, android phones and I-pads , low-end cards will generally hold no interest for kids. Auto cards and jersey cards hold some interest because of the direct connection to people they see on television. Saying card companies should go back to things were in the early 90s is like saying video game companies should go back to producing Sega Master Systems or Ataris.

Why do companies produce more mid and high-end than low end? Because that is where the market is. If the market was for low end, and mid to high end didn't sell, that is what card companies would produce. The reason why card companies moved away from a lot of low-end to mid and high end is because the low end market was dead.

Moving to low-end WOULD spell the end for the hobby. The hobby didn't drive kids away because of high-end, the hobby turned from a kids hobby to an adult hobby with high end because kids didn't collect any more.

[pwaldo]

Kids don't want low end. Does anybody remember being a kid? Did you want the kids stuff that was cheap or were you in awe of the awesome stuff that adults were buying? Yeah everyone wanted the awesome stuff so you would save up months worth of allowance to buy it.

[eliteco3]

Kids don't want low end. Does anybody remember being a kid? Did you want the kids stuff that was cheap or were you in awe of the awesome stuff that adults were buying? Yeah everyone wanted the awesome stuff so you would save up months worth of allowance to buy it.

+ 1

[RG3NFL]

New brand of QBs starting to take over the league. Already have the likes of Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, RG3 & Colin Kaepernick, and players like Geno Smith & Teddy Bridgewater entering the league soon too...Players like Joe Flacco & Matt Ryan might wanna try and win the super bowl now, as their window is closing IMO..

[RG3NFL]

Forgot to include these dual threat qbs hold the most future value IMO...They're like Vick but are much better passers. Unlike him, they are QB first.

[manning991]

The fact that Jamal Lewis Contenders sell for $10 on EBay and Edgerrin JAmes SPAs sell for $10 to $15 just tells me that people are more into hype than actual production. I buy all the Lewis I can get at $10 and all the James I can get at $8-$10. Same with Curtis Martin and Terrell Davis. Bowmans Best Martins for $3 and Certified Davis' for $2...those are steals. I'll also take all the Topps Chrome Torry Holts I can get for $2 or $3 bucks.

When people say kids can't afford to collect, there are a bunch of cards listed above all of future HOF'ers that would cost far less that the next Halo release.....this is still a great hobby for kids, maybe better than it's ever been if you look at everything with the exception of wax.

[giantfan270]

2004 also had Rivers in that class.

[deansayso]

Start at 2000!
2000 - Ron Dayne and Mike Anderson
2001 - Deuce McAllister
2002 - Clinton Portis

There is already a cycle in place with 'Rookies' each and every year. Running backs create the most hysteria before fading into oblivion because of the short life span of the position. I will start in 2003 and name some running backs who have fizzled both in the hobby and there career.

2003 - Larry Johnson, had a couple nice seasons. His hobby was incredible in early 2006. Contenders sold for 420 at one time. You can not pick it up for 10 bucks.
Onterrio Smith, Domanick Davis, Justin Fargas
Willis Mcgahee - still plays and has had a nice career. Nonetheless, he holds little hobby value.
2004 - Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Chris Perry. Tatum Bell
Steven Jackson - Topped 10,000 yards and has more left in the tank. Only 29 years old, nonetheless, his hobby is very low currently.
2005 - Frank Gore - nearing 10,000 yards but, hobby has been slumping for some time.
Sproles - fantastic player. holds the all time yards from scrimmage record. Cards are low.
benson, ronnie brown, and cadillac - All at one time were worth absurd levels. Now can be had for little to nothing. Also, Marion barber.
2006 - Maroney. Bush - Cards have decreased by 80% or more.
Jones Drew - steady hobby. he needs a few more good seasons. Deangelo williams - still has a little value. Lendale white isworth nothing.
2007 - Pretty solid in terms of Peterson being here. For how dominant Lynch is, his hobby is fairly low
2008 - Interesting class, Forte, Charles, Rice, CJ, Mcfadden, Jonathan Stewart, Mendenhall. All have seen decreases and could fade into oblivion in the future.
2009 - Lesean - has a little bit of value.
Beanie - little value. Knowshon - no value.
2010 - Jahvid Best, low value. Mathews - injury prone and cards have fallen.
Spiller - had a nice season but needs many more to sustain
2011 - Leshore, Ryan Williams - very low value. Ingram has dropped because of low production.
2012 - We see Doug Martin showing flashes. David Wilson had some nice highlights.
Trent only averaged 3.5 but his cards have held steady.

This could be the topic of another discussion but, I wanted to bring up the topic of Running Backs and there ever decreasing values. At times, they will decrease over time even when they had very successful careers. It seems to be a position that people collect at the moment, not in the long term.

[ndhl83]

This could be the topic of another discussion but, I wanted to bring up the topic of Running Backs and there ever decreasing values. At times, they will decrease over time even when they had very successful careers. It seems to be a position that people collect at the moment, not in the long term.

I think with running backs, since they don't play as long (typically) as QB and WR, they have a very short window to move from Average -> Good -> Great -> Elite.

I think most RBs enter the league as either average or good, and eventually the best ones manage to land in "great" territory, but even that isn't very exclusive. I would call Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, etc. the current crop of great RBs without question. Elite, however, is reserved for a rare few, the people who enter the league and are already "great" on day 1, and after a few seasons have set themselves apart as being cut from a different cloth. AP is the only back currently playing that I consider Elite. Everyone else is just great, in comparison. If AP never played another down, I feel his legacy as an elite RB and phenomenal talent is cemented. He will be remembered by all football fans, and by Vikings fans for a loooooong time.

I may be crazy, but from watching Richardson play this year, I think he has a chance to seperate himself as Elite. Just a hunch. I usually refrain from predicting player success, especially RBs, but I love the way that guys runs. He has the instincts, the power, the drive, and his legs are the size of tree trunks. I'm very excited for his second season, hopefully the Browns get him some help and Weeden isn't a colossal flop.