The Kaepernick Bubble

**NYGiants72** · 01-29-2013, 11:24 PM

I'm not looking to be the eternal pessimist here, but wanted to get readers' thoughts regarding the insane spike in Kaepernick prices and whether these new prices are sustainable or doomed to crash in the future. I'd love to pick up a few more cards of the guy, as I love watching him play, but ended up unloading everything I had but my two PC set cards.

The problem with the recent pricing is that Kaepernick's cards are being valued above all other QBs not named Manning, Rodgers or Brady. He is undoubtedly the hottest selling player right now. But here are the problems I have with picking him up now:

1) Kaepernick has not played a full season. When he has played he has been absolutely on fire save for one bad game. He also plays for a tea, which has a sick amount of talent on the OL and skill positions. He is about to play in the Superbowl. This poses two issues
*The issue is that nothing bad (multi-game slump, injury, losing a top target) has happened to Kaepernick yet. Any of these would slow the momentum of his cards/popularity and make these cards a cheaper pick-up at that point in time. No matter how good a QB is, bad things happen.
*His price is an implied evaluation of a small sample-size. In dealing with the rigors of a full season where D coordinators have an offseason to scheme against the pistol formation an Kaepernick specifically won't lead to a sophmore slump of sorts.

2) Kapernick is currently the hottest player in the Hobby. If he wins the Superbowl he would be...the hottest player in the Hobby. His hype doesn't really have any upward potential from current levels. However, I could see the air coming out of those prices with a Niners loss, especially if it is a decisive one.

3) Print Run...Print Run. The difference between Kaepernick and other QB rookies, is that Kaepernick was produced in much higher quantities compared to the other QBs who got the chase card treatment. Lets assume in the long-run that Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick become two of the leagues top QBs. However, Kaepernick probably has twice the amount of RC autos produced than Newton. It would follow that, all else equal, supply & demand would dictate that Newton's cards would be twice as valuable if they turned out to be equivalent talents.

I plan on diving back into the Kaepernick pool at some point and grabbing some nice AUs, but I am pretty confident that within the next two years prices will be 30-50% lower than current values. To me there is definitely a Kaepernick bubble that is bound to pop.

Thoughts?

**~~giantfan270~~** · 01-30-2013, 12:38 AM

According to Beckett's, Newton and Kaepernick both have 34 RC's. Newton has 18 autos, Kaepernick has 19.

**14smoke2x** · 01-30-2013, 12:40 AM

I agree with the OP although he plays in the perfect system for him with a great defense and one of the top coaches in the league, that is a good combo.

**NYGiants72** · 01-30-2013, 12:50 AM

Originally Posted by giantfan270

According to Beckett's, Newton and Kaepernick both have 34 RC's. Newton has 18 autos, Kaepernick has 19.

They may have the same # of cards, but in discussing print run referrs to the serial number denominator. Kapernick had Base Inception AUs numbered to /599 where Newton was either /75 or /150. Also there were several other runs where Newton would be /199 where Kaepernick would be /299 or /399

**soccer-n-golf** · 01-30-2013, 12:52 AM

agree 110 %.....tried to pick one up for my nephew who is a Niners Fan.....and a trader on here wanted my Peyton NT Patch Auto, Favre Auto & AP RC Auto for his lower-mid tier auto.....told him I'm not falling for the overhyped "hot" selling prices of Kaep---and if he thought Kaep was a better investment than those guys---god bless....lol......they may be selling for as much as those, but IMO....by mid-season next year you will be able to get them for 25-30% of what their going for now.....just ride out the hype storm and pick one up next year......as far as him winning the Super Bowl....well, Trent Dilfer won one also(doesn't really mean much) ;)..........I'll buy two Peyton's all-day/everyday for the price of one of his inflated "hot" cards......just my 2 cents

**~~giantfan270~~** · 01-30-2013, 01:09 AM

Originally Posted by NYGiants72

They may have the same # of cards, but in discussing print run referrs to the serial number denominator. Kapernick had Base Inception AUs numbered to /599 where Newton was either /75 or /150. Also there were several other runs where Newton would be /199 where Kaepernick would be /299 or /399

All prints totaled up.

Cam Newton has 6,871 numbered RC's with another 13 products being unnumbered.

Kaepernick has 8,128 numbered RC's with another 12 products being unnumbered.

But I do agree that the bubble will burst. I think they will have come down by this time next year. Not to this extreme, but I saw the same thing happen last year with my Eli PC. Now prices are right in the middle of where they were pre playoffs last season (low), and the peak after the SB (inflated). Kaepernicks may have already peaked.

**NYGiants72** · 01-30-2013, 06:34 AM

Originally Posted by giantfan270

All prints totaled up.

Cam Newton has 6,871 numbered RC's with another 13 products being unnumbered.

Kaepernick has 8,128 numbered RC's with another 12 products being unnumbered.

But I do agree that the bubble will burst. I think they will have come down by this time next year. Not to this extreme, but I saw the same thing happen last year with my Eli PC. Now prices are right in the middle of where they were pre playoffs last season (low), and the peak after the SB (inflated). Kaepernicks may have already peaked.

Ok, I yield that point

Thanks for doing the math there. My journalistic integrity is admittedly questionable.

**ConnorHeaney** · 01-30-2013, 08:53 AM

In my opinion it depends on his performance next year. If he does well again and goes deep into the playoffs again, his cards will not come down much, but he completes less then 50% of passes and turns into Mark Sanchez, they will.

**~~giantfan270~~** · 01-30-2013, 09:17 AM

Originally Posted by NYGiants72

Ok, I yield that point

Thanks for doing the math there. My journalistic integrity is admittedly questionable.

I thought your post was very well written. I just wasn't convinced that Kaep had double the RC's. Still, your point is accurate and comes across perfectly.

**pwaldo** · 01-30-2013, 03:01 PM

The bubble will burst with everyone. His stuff will rise if he wins the Super Bowl but by next year somebody else will pop up that everyone will go crazy over. Everyone wanted Sam Bradford, then it was Cam Newton, then it was Luck, then it was RGIII, and now it is him. Heck you even had Tim Tebow mixed in there as well. Stuff gets hot and then years later people look back and go why was I paying that for that?