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02-24-2013, 11:53 AM #1
Andrew Luck is hot in football card collecting, but will he stay hot?
IF LONG POSTS ARE NOT YOUR STYLE, my apologies and you can stop now. If you are a Colts fan then I would love feedback. If you are not a Colts fan then hopefully this is objective enough and informative.
I want to see what people think about Andrew Luck staying hot in card collecting. I want to make a case so I have outlined my case below. Enjoy.
Andrew Luck aleady has a respectable career milestone under his belt. Andrew Luck set the rookie record for passing in his rookie year.
I believe that in order to predict the future for Andrew Luck cards, we have to start with some parameters built into our forecast. Assumption number one is easy. Assumption number one is that a Super Bowl winning QB with a national popularity base drives prices up.
While Andrew Luck has an affect on improving the Indianapolis Colts, the Indianapolis Colts will ultimately need to improve. We have seen the first year of Andrew Luck's four year guaranteed contract and now we need improvement from the Colts to continue to see upticks in Luck cards.
According to Wikipedia, Bill James gets credit for developing the Pythagorean formula which predicts how many games that a baseball team should have won in any given season. Baseball is a game of stats and predictible variables. Over a long 162 game season, baseball is easier to predict than the NFL. The assumption is based on common sense things like a team that gets blown out and then wins close games is not as good as an NFL team which wins most of its games handily. For football, you have to incorporate Pts scored and pts allowed and de-value wins and losses.
Here is the formula. Football works best with a factor of **2.37 according to some.
Expected record =~ -----------------
PF^2.37 + PA^2.37
If you agree with me that over the first 4 years of Andrew Luck's rookie deal, Andrew will be a tremendous impact player then you 'must' temper human judgement into your pythagorean calculation. The Colts pythag chart can be interpretted this way.
The Colts should have won a mere 4 games in 2012 based on 2011. They won 11 for +7. That is normally unsustainable in the next season. Close examinations of teams with high 'thags' usually reveals the obvious: the Colts gave up a ton of pts and didn't score that many. A classic example of an over-achieving team winning close games. A glance at the final score at New England against the top tier confirms that deficiencies exist.
However it is interesting. the colts have positive 'thag' for 2013. It is just .49 for 2013 but that means you must question if the 2012 results where real or fake. Think about it for next year. The 'thag' predicts slight improvements. It does not take into account the 2012 creampuff schedule or what is really going on at the level that requires human judgement.
In the case of the Colts it is imperative and absolutely required to temper statistical analysis with human judgement. Is Luck that much of an impact player? The entire organization has been rebuilt. Dwight Freeney is moving on. The Colts are sorely undermanned up front to effectively play the 3-4. On the offensive side, the OL is in no shape to protect a golden arm of the caliber found in young Andrew Luck.
Will the suprising value found in mid round pick T.Y. Hilton be lost with the departure of free agent Donnie Avery and the retirement of Austin Collie?
Reggie is a year older. Reggie Wayne will turn 35 next year coming off of a Pro Bowl season. To put that in perspective, Reggie Wayne will be entering his 13th season.
Can the Colts trust Vick Ballard to be the feature back or do they try to lure Ricky Williams at the expense of a Jake Long or Brian Urlacher. Free agency can really be bone headed in hind site. The failure to resign Pro Bowl DB Tim Jenning and do a trade to give up a 2nd rounder for Vontae Davis already a determinent factor going forward. I am not saying it was bone headed at all but the jury is out but Grigson is making his bed. Consider the following.
The Colts gave up their 2nd round pick to acquire the services of Vontae Davis and now all three of their remaining starting DBs are free agents, including the last value that Bill Polian hand selected in Jerraud Powers.
There are plus sides. The Colts have a lot of salary cap room. Chuck Pagano and the coaching staff along with GM Ryan Grigson seem to have nothing riding against them after the over-achievements in 2012. Grigson is a guy who needs to live up to his alleged draft pick prowess and time will tell but so far, his 2012 class was a step in the right direction.
I am going to tend to look at the glass as half full with the belief that Andrew Luck's future is tied to this team's future. Andrew is by no means off the hook. He forces the ball, he holds onto too long and he needs to pick up his reads to reduce interceptions.
For Andrew Luck, it will be a lofty goal to displace the Texans right now as a leader of men. Yes, it can be done but it must be handled by the organization with kit gloves. When your trajectory is up it can only go up or down and it really cannot stay the same forever (Carl Jung for more scientific proof). The corporate functions in this league that have an impact include contracts, the combine, the draft, practice rules changes, injuries and rehabilitation and free agency etc. As the Colts go, so goes Andrew and vice versa. As a fan, we want the Colts to be the class of the AFC South and return to our place atop the AFC South. As an Andrew Luck collector, the question is simple: "Are the Colts for real or are they fake?". Future to be determined....
** The factor of 2.37 was derived by emperical evidence and computer programs that correlated the factor and attributed the fact that 2 decimal places was sufficient to evaluate a 16 game schedule to a bunch of smart guys sitting around debating the ultimate meaning to life, the universe and everything. - inspired by David Adams the author RIP"
Last edited by MadColtsFan; 02-24-2013 at 02:39 PM. Reason: clarification on the factor
02-24-2013, 01:18 PM #2
Sorry, I bumped to make clarifications. Not like people are posting so fast and furious at any rate.
02-24-2013, 01:44 PM #3
I think the card value of Andrew Luck will be directly correlated to his / his teams play on the field, but also to the quality of the next draft class.
I only say this because of the sliding sale values of Cam Newton from LY to TY.
I know Cam had a poor year in comparison to his FY, but I believe that the quality of offense players in this years rookie class also assisted in the decrease in Cam's cards.
IMO I believe Luck/Griffin/Wilson/Tannehill and others cards will maintain and or increase due to the minimal impact of the rookie offensive players in this year class. (Unless a player like Geno Smith blows up)football autos
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02-24-2013, 01:55 PM #4
Newton is lightning in a bottle and a big potential Homer Simpson type 'DOH''s in hindsight at current values to be had.
Last edited by MadColtsFan; 02-24-2013 at 01:59 PM.
02-24-2013, 02:21 PM #5
Qb rookie cards of players that produce/show promise will always be "hot". When the next years crop of Rc's come out and produce/show promise they will be the "hot" cards. It has always been that way and it will never change.
Will 2nd/3rd/4th year cards of Luck be valuabe?......sure if he produces, if he slows down/gets injured/etc....they won't be...which is the case for ANY player we collect.....it's NOT rocket science. Card values are largely value driven based on popularity(Mickey Mantle values vs Willie Mays values for example or ANY Tebow cards). If you produce, your cards will have a following/value. If not....who's next? It's really that simple.
02-24-2013, 02:32 PM #6
One thing about the short attention span of collectors and the coming draft is its complete lack of any one standout for 2013. I think a lot of the collectability for cards this coming year will be in second and third year players (Cam, Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick & the like). Luck has a chance this year to solidify himself but his cards will drop regardless. As someone stated above, that's how it works. New players come up and the older ones forgotten. It's why you can get a Jim Brown auto for half of what you would pay for an AP.
02-24-2013, 02:46 PM #7
02-24-2013, 03:46 PM #8
I think the only thing that will help Luck, RGIII and everyone else from the draft class last year is that this year the class is expected to be very weak on the offense side so there isn't a player for fans with short attention spans to jump to. If there was I don't think the values of these guys would remain hot because everyone seems to want the next big thing every year and discard people like Bradford, Newton, etc who were once the "it" guys. Can Newton went from being the next big thing in the NFL breaking all these records to barely being talked about after getting washed away in the 2012 draft QB tidal wave.
So while I think stats put up by Luck and winning by the Colts are important it isn't the overriding factor in a player now. Hype is and ESPN and the NFL network will move onto somebody else when they get the chance.
02-24-2013, 03:56 PM #9
If luck can win or become a top qb his cards should keep value. Cam fell partially due to his less than stellar start to last season & the beating hes taken in the media. Remember luck was seen as the best qb prospect since peyton maybe even elway so if he can live up to that his cards will stay somewhat hot, if he makes a superbowl run he will be red hot.
02-24-2013, 09:08 PM #10
I like the pricing of Luck cards right now. While a lot of people are overpricing, you can get some solid cards in the $150-$200 range if you can wait for the right deal. There is always risk with rookies, but nothing about Luck's price vs. potential smacks of overhype right now. I think RG III pre-injury and Russell Wilson have a lot more hype inflation.
As Dsholo noted, Luck isn't seen as the best QB in the 2012, but many scouts had him pegged as the best prospect in a decade. If he develops into a top-5 QB, I think his cards will continue to appreciate in value.
It's easy to look at the last three years of QBs and point to the collapse in pricing, but that is due to the specific players and circumstances as opposed to collector ADD...see below:
Tim Tebow: Bolstered by biggest media hype in recent memory, 2nd year performance wildly disproportionate with talent; No longer starting/jettisoned by original team
Josh Freeman: Team in very small market; Inconsistent, has moments but does not look like he will be a great QB
Mark Sanchez: Overhyped as a result of NY market and USC pedigree; Continually regressing; Butt fumble
Sam Bradford: Best of an underwhelming class of QBs; Mid-market team; Three years in -- looks like he has a ceiling of being just a good QB
Matt Stafford: Spent 1st two years battling injuries; Puts up huge numbers but on underwhelming teams; Does anyone think he will have longevity/maintained success in his career due to injuries (makes me think Carson Palmer).
Jake Locker/Andy Dalton/Christian Ponder -- While there is some talent difference here, I think they all look like they have ceilings of becoming competent game managers, not enough to justify their 1st year hype/prices. Dalton's slightly higher promise seems to me to be a result of having the elite WR the other two don't.
Cam Newton: 2nd year performance was a huge let-down after a mindblowing rookie year; Bizarre press-conferences and questions about leadership signaled more than just a slump; Preceded a banner rookie class for QBs That said, even with the warning signs, I think he has the talent for his RC cards to regain their end of 2011 numbers. I personally think it is a good time to buy Cam now.
The one notable guy I left off is Kaepernick. His hype was unsustainable leading up to the SB, but I think he is a good buy now that some of the air is out of the pricing. He has the team around him and skills to be great. His value jumped up after his rookie year despite occurring in the best QB draft classes since 2004 (arguably better than 2004).
Luck/Griffin/Wilson prices aren't facing headwinds from a strong 2013 class and, despite the limited evaluation period, I would argue that Luck & Wilson are much more promising than most of the candidates listed above. I would add Griffin to that list as well assuming he recovers sufficiently to gain his 2012 form. Just my drawn-out thoughts.BUCKET: Hidden Content
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