01-09-2014, 11:39 AM #11
I think depreciation is inevitable when you look at how oversaturated the market is. I agree with the poster who wrote about there being too many companies and too many brands. I also agree with the only products that will retain some value will be serialed products, especially low number runs, some autographs and some rookies depending on how that players career turns out down the line. Look back at cards from the 90s that booked very high for several years and compare that to what they book for today. It's a HUGE drop. Not just a small drop but an enormous one. Also have to agree with people who are avid collectors today tend to want the newest, hottest product. In 2-3 years no one will be calmoring for 13-14 UD Tomas Hertl YG unless he winds up a powerhourse or someone is PCing him. That card will probably lose half its current BV in 2 years. I've only been back in the hobby for about 6 months now but after pulling a Galchenyuk YG and seeing the response to that card compared to some of my older cards its obvious.
I think I basically regurgitated what was already written up to this point but if you are focusing on trying to build a collection that will have a chance at holding its value focus on a few rookies a year (esp autos), and rare limited serialed cards from a few of the higher end products.
Me? Since getting back into collecting I've been cherry-picking cards that I couldn't get when I was younger. Interesting cards. Different cards. They hold value to me because I've never been able to reach across the world and pluck a memoribilia card or autograph so easily and have it be someone like Chris Terreri. If you turn collecting into a monetary venure it ceases to be a hobby and becomes a business and to me having 1 job is enough ;)
Last edited by route42nj; 01-09-2014 at 11:42 AM.Main wants: Chris Terreri (everything), Henrique, Patrik Elias, Reid Boucher, Jon Merrill, Eric Gelinas, Mike Modano and will always look at traders.
Lets go Devils!
01-09-2014, 11:56 AM #12
I know the focus of a lot of this thread has revolved around cards being produced today of current players. What about cards being produced today featuring vintage memorabilia? There's a much more limited supply of this mem, however will demand continue to hold strong?Have you seen the other half??? Joe Sakic Captain-C 2/2
01-09-2014, 11:59 AM #13
Rookies don't hold value. The only time a rookie might hold value is if the player has a 16 year career and makes it into the Hall of Fame. Some Players making it into the Hall of Fame these days don't score 500 goals and don't get anywhere near 1,000 points in a career.
01-09-2014, 12:24 PM #14
01-09-2014, 12:39 PM #15
I personally don't think we have seen a crash since the 90's and it's hard to predict if there will be another one. There are several important factors at play that have changed the market and that are still changing it today:
- General health of the global economy
- Product price to a certain extent
- Desirability of a set
- Popularity and production vs demand of auto/mem/parallel cards for a given player
- The "hype/gotta have it first" factor
Our prior isolation from remote collectors is also a thing of the past for most of us. We used to be limited to trading with local LCS's and local collectors who had a very finite amount of product available. There are now tools such as forums, eBay, CraigsList, Kijiji, etc. that allow us to trade, buy and sell to and from a global community. That means that availability has been heightened significantly and that in turn greatly affected the availability/demand variable while driving prices for single cards and lots way down.
From what I see, we've attained a relative stability for now, but I have no idea what the future holds.
01-09-2014, 01:16 PM #16
I am going to say that all cards will lose value in the next 20-25 years. I feel that my generation (30) is the last one that will truly embrace the hobby. Kids today wants things that move, things that make noises, and to have interactive entertainment. They don't want to spend big $$ on pieces of cardboard with ink.
01-09-2014, 03:03 PM #17
There are likely hundreds of thousands of us in North America, but despite such a high number, when you put things in perspective, sports card collectors represent a very small minority of the population. There are already "very few" of us, but I think we'll survive. :)
01-11-2014, 07:46 PM #18
Prices are most definitely going to go down over the next 5, 10, 15, etc., years. The market has already crashed in an insane way over the past 3 or 4 years. I have no idea why I'm always shocked at how little things go for now. Two good examples; Wayne Gretzky RC's and always the most current Pacific/ITG product.
I constantly hear people say, "Buy vintage. That stuff never goes down". Well, that may be technically true, but it also doesn't go up. So, long term - you've still lost money (This thing called "inflation" is real). For example, in 1994 a mint Gretzky OPC raw RC could fetch you around $600 - $800. Today, 20 years later a mint Gretzky OPC raw RC can fetch you... $600 - $800. Hmmm... that doesn't sound like a good, "Investment".
I'm pretty sure my rent, gas, groceries, bus fare, hydro, etc., all went up over these past 20 years. So, that card hasn't maintained it's value, it's gone down. To have maintained it's value, you would have to be able to easily get $1,500 -$2,000 for a mint Gretzky OPC raw RC and you can't do that.
Another excellent example of how nothing will hold value is the Pacific/ITG price/value plummet that seems to happen with 100% of their product (I don't mention UD because, while their product goes down in value as well, it doesn't seem to fall quite as afar and as fast as Pacific and ITG). Seriously, look at what 2013/14 Pacific Prizm singles were going for when they first hit the market a few months ago. Now? Now you can get the retail blasters at Shoppers Drug Mart in Vancouver for $11/box (Marked down from $25/box) and it's STILL over priced!
The collectible card market is one that is shrinking every year. Fewer and fewer kids are getting on-board and that's a horrible thing. The sad thing? There is NOTHING you can do to bring the kids on board. The only thing that MIGHT save the industry and make it grow would be to make hockey cards more interactive like Pokemon Cards. Why? Because there is no purpose to purchasing hockey (or any other sport, for that mater) cards. In the past, you would look at the back of a card and say to your friend, "See! I told you Wayne Gretzky scored 92 goals one season!" Now? Now, you Google that. Wanna see what a player looks like? Google and YouTube videos. Want an autograph? Buy one somewhere. Why try to pull it out of a pack ("You spent $200 on a box of cards, didn't get the auto you wanted and the guy you did get is someone you've never heard of AND it's a sticker they just put on the card? Why would you waste your money like that?!")
I honestly tried as hard as I could to get my son into hockey cards, but he had very little interest and that quickly turned to zero interest. Why? Not one kid at his school collects or buys hockey cards. For them it's all about Pokemon, Yu-Gi-Oh, MTG, etc. You know, stuff you can use to interact with your friends. Not stuff you look at and put in a box or binder, to forget about.
I love hockey cards and loved collecting them. But I got rid of 98% of my collection a few years ago when I realised we're just glorified stamp and spoon collectors. It was the most liberating thing I've ever done. I honestly can't believe how much more money I have! We'll always exist but you aren't going to grow the industry and bring in kids. And as everyone knows, without new customers, your business can not survive."I like chicken wings"
-The Fat Man