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07-16-2014, 12:06 AM #11
Not to douse your parade, but do keep in mind that MVP is promising 9 tiers of parallels.
I think that the days of being able to put that genie back into a bottle are long past.
This is pretty much a C&P from a post last month, but I think it gets the point across:
In Carey Price's rookie year of 2007-08 Upper Deck produced 177 cards of him across their 22 releases (remember that this was in the first UD Exclusive Era) - that at the time seemed like a lot.
But that number is absolutely dwarfed by what is out there in this year's "Double Rookie Class" for two top Canadiens players.
To date...I repeat, TO DATE (with still 6 more releases--SP Authentic, Contenders, Prime, Ultimate Collection, Cup, and National Treasures to be added to the SCF Inventory) these are the number of cards on the market for Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk:
Gallagher
Upper Deck: 153
Panini: 183
Total: 336
Galchenyuk
Upper Deck: 151
Panini: 216
Total: 367
Now, with SP Authentic out, Gallagher is at 160 and Galchenyuk is at 162 for Upper Deck. We don't know what is yet to come from Ultimate & Cup. If they do the printing plates thing, that's going to be a humongous big jump.
Are Panini's numbers still significantly higher? Yes. But don't expect that we'll be transported to a magical world where suddenly top players are getting under 150 cards.
We can still expect to see 15-18-22 releases from UD next year that will likely put top-tier guys at 250+ cards.
I think that, for myself, it's going to be a slower year for sure next year. Josh is in Buffalo (still weird seeing that), there's no notable rookies for the Habs from the carry-over groups and I don't expect to see Scherbak debut as an 18-year old, so that pretty much reels things back to Carey and PK. PK's not signing, Carey probably will be SP'd and only having autos in a few products, so I see a scaling back. It'll be less of a frenzy in 14-15 I think.Habs fan and collector! Main PC's: Carey Price, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, and of course...
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07-16-2014, 01:13 AM #12
Having 150-250 rookie year cards is absurd. It's hard for player collectors to keep up with and, if long term value is important to you, there's no way the majority of these RCs are going to be worth anything in the future. Rookie autos (Cup RC, Future Watch, etc) of the best players will have the best chance of holding value, everything else will be a dime a dozen.
Even Gretzky himself couldn't sustain high value if he had 200+ rookie year cards.
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07-16-2014, 02:44 AM #13
Not all of those are rookie cards. ;)
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07-16-2014, 03:27 AM #14
With the UD exclusive I'm looking forwards to (hopefully) an easier time keeping up with new Sedin cards... the sheer explosion in number of cards over the past few years had me nearly considering scaling back my collecting efforts. I know the collecting world doesn't rotate around my needs, but I'm sure many player collectors like myself have either given up or strongly considered it recently (and that's really not good for the secondary values that many already bemoan as being low), so being able to keep the PC going is exciting for me.
Fewer sets = fewer cards (at least I read somewhere that was it the NHL or the PA mentioned that there will be fewer sets next year than last - UD will be producing more than 11 sets, but hopefully not 22).
Fewer parallels = fewer cards - UD has Artifacts and sounds like they're adding MVP to the mix, but in general they've been more restrained... and a number of the parallels they do put out are popular ones (Exclusives/HG's... Blank Backs... Gold and Black edges on the Cup parallels... jersey numbered ARP golds)
No autos = fewer cards - For whatever reasons the Sedins haven't signed with UD since midway through 09-10, the lack of auto'ed cards makes my chase a lot easier
Easier time finding cards... over the Panini/UD era, I'm still trying to find 35 Panini cards, and only 5 UD cards - some parallel-heavy Panini products seem to be very lightly broken and are difficult to find, I suppose the chase is fun, but it's a tad frustrating the sheer number that I can't locate.
No more dealing with redemptions - Been waiting months to several years on Panini redemptions and reached out to them numerous times and am no closer to resolution, and still can't believe the months that people have to wait for redemptions that Panini has in house but simply don't ship due to their arcane algorithm of cycling through the alphabet once or twice a year (at least that's how I've heard it explained). While I've heard of miserable experiences with UD customer service, my personal experience has been 100% stellar, it's been a couple years since I've even sent in a redemption, but I've never needed to call them because every redemption I've ever sent has been handled promptly.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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07-16-2014, 03:37 AM #15
Thats why I said "rookie year" cards ;)
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07-16-2014, 08:18 AM #16
I was the first one to say anything that had to do with "less rookies" and I'm quoting myself to be clear on what my expectations are:
Upper Deck is still going to pump out 22 Rookie Cards of the 75 (or so) biggest name rookies next year, and somewhere between one and 21 of another 200 (or so). That's what they were doing when the exclusive last left us. Most of those cards will have some parallels, but probably only 2 or 3 of them will have more than 4.
We're still going to see insert cards, and other subsets that rookies are included in..... but I HOPE that UD won't feel like they need to make every single card of Jonathan Drouin they possible can, in an attempt to out-do Panini. Maybe he doesn't need to have a Limited Logos or a Signature Patch in The Cup. Maybe the ARP & it's parallels will be enough. Maybe he doesn't need a SOTT, and a Future Watch Auto with parallels is enough.
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07-16-2014, 09:38 AM #17
If there's one thing I look forward to, it's that the profit-seeking "collectors" will perhaps stop moaning and complaining that the market is being flooded and oversaturated. Otherwise next year is gonna suck and 2015-16 will be like 2005-06 all over again with the McDavid lottery.
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07-19-2014, 07:01 PM #18
I FOR ONE do not help the card market, breaking new products are not my priority but I am very happy to see Panini out of the Nhl business and I hope to never see them back the only things I liked from Panini was the contenders patch selection / 100 it was better than most in 2011-12 and some of the rare players they had in their Stickside signature subset of dominion
ANYWAYS, Upper deck and Their hard signed products are always my priority and I hope them Add bigger non rookie setlists to those hard signed products like they did during 2005-2008 with the cup and not feel rushed to keep up with Panini and their release dates. . I think in reality not having competition allows a company to make a better product maybe take their time and not have so many 1 color swatches, and if they don't accomplish it, well I can only imagine
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07-19-2014, 07:19 PM #19
I don't see a linkage between those two things. In the absence of competition, why would UD feel the need to suddenly (after ten years going back to the first Exclusive Era) start pumping out multi-colour swatches left, right, and centre?
Remember too that they're not going to only have 11 releases. Most in the know sources have them doing 18 releases for 14-15, so they're still going to be "rushing" to get their own products out on time.
A jersey only have so many areas for multi-coloured patch/jersey cutting, and those will always be restricted to the premium products except in very small quantities.
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07-19-2014, 07:36 PM #20
Are they allotted 1 jersey per player every year? I don't understand patches /15 and 10 of them are plain.
I am looking forward to Upper Deck's 14-15 Team Canada World Juniors set. Looking forward to less rookie cards to chase. That's about it. Maybe the come back of a nostalgic set for me or a merger or something would also grab my attention.Master List: Hidden Content
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