Upper Deck 2014-15 Series 1/2 Base Production Question

[Skipjacks]

How many of any individual base card is produced per series (excluding young guns)? 1K, 2k, 10K?
To be clear, I'm asking how many '#1 Getzlaf' cards are in circulation (not counting the 100 excl or 10 hg).

I'm sure not the first to ask this question.

Thoughts?

[RGM81]

We have no way of knowing. UD doesn't disclose their production run.

[miscs75]

I can tell you that I have at least 15 copies of each of the Isles commons plus more of some others.

[Skipjacks]

Makes sense not to disclose the numbers plus no idea how many get thrown out due to bad print, miss cut, etc.

But I'm about to go on a long (mostly boring) rational to solve this problem but always looking for extra thoughts.

Attacking this from two points so going to do my best to not confuse people (or myself).
Estimate 2 exclusives(#/100) cards per box. The UD Ser I/II is a 500 card set. Assume a total of 50,000 exclusive cards. (100excl x 500 base set = 50K)
50,000 excl cards at two a box means 25k boxes.

Each box has 24 packs with 8 cards each. Assume each pack has one of some type of special card, which means the other 7 cards are base cards. That 7 base cards for 24 packs for 168 base cards per box
With 168 base cards from 25,000 boxes, that means a total of 4.2 mil base cards. Since I'm only counting base cards (not young guns), that means 4.2 mil from a 400 card set comes to...
10.5K per base card

Notes: I have not factored in such things as blaster and retail packs which means the total base number is probably higher. Also, have no idea how many base cards were destroyed before packaging due to imperfections.

Thoughts?

[30ranfordfan]

We can probably come up with a good guess for how many exist in hobby boxes. Your math sounds reasonable.... 10.5k.... sure. I'll buy it.

There is probably at least that many again though in retail packs.


When I read the original question, my first thought was "tens of thousands"

[dupariel]

Aren't exclusives (and high gloss) odd listed as 1:54 packs?
Which would mean 1 every 2.25 hobby boxes.
correct me if I'm wrong but I think there would be a lot more of each base card than 10.5K

[brooaar]

For series 1 that sounds about right.
Series 2 seemed to have one exclusive per.

Aren't exclusives (and high gloss) odd listed as 1:54 packs?
Which would mean 1 every 2.25 hobby boxes.
correct me if I'm wrong but I think there would be a lot more of each base card than 10.5K

[Skipjacks]

I forgot to take in to account the retail versus hobby box.... plus all the fat packs and such.
So it's fair to say that the numbers is probably much closer to 15K (if not more).