McDavid YG prices

[Leafsman]

It's funny that this turned into McDavid vs Gretzky.


Of course nobody is going to score as many points as Gretzky did. Those days are LONG gone, and if the pure numbers are what you want to compare to, then you'll never see a player as good as that again (and yes, I would argue all day that Gretzky is the greatest ever).

McDavid is coming in with more hype than anyone we've seen since Crosby, and if you've watched him play over the last few years - it's pretty obvious why. He's a more gifted offensive talent than anyone we've seen since Crosby (and maybe more than Crosby, though I'm certainly not willing to say that yet).

Crosby has won a grand total of 2 scoring titles. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he'll win another. I will admit that there was a point in time when I thought Crosby had a good chance to win more Cups than Gretzky did (that's Cups... not scoring titles. Almost zero chance we'll see someone with 10 again, and I never thought that would be a thing).


But being the best player in the league has NOTHING to do with putting up 50 or 60 goal seasons, or scoring 120 or 140 points. Crosby won his first scoring title in 2006-07, with 120 points. The runner up was Joe Thornton with 114, and there were 5 others with 100+

The league is now geared far more towards pluggers who can't skate (much less score) than it was in 06-07. The reality is that while 120 points then was impressive, nobody is going to hit that kind of number in 2015. Jamie Benn's 87 points last year probably won't win the scoring title again..... but I betcha the winner does it with under 100.


And so what? I think scoring titles is a good way to measure career success (for the really high end players) but total points? Unless the players played the bulk of their careers in the same era, it's about as useful for comparing the quality of two players as wins by a baseball pitcher.



People are paying bundles of money for McDavid because he projects to be the best player in this league for the next 10 years. If you don't want to buy into the hype - that's anyone's right - but when have hockey card values EVER been about on-ice performance? They're about collectibility, which is all about popularity, and what that player has actually achieved is only one small piece of that.

McDavid's RCs are worth a ton, for the same reason that Ron Francis' signatures are slightly better than that of commons. The popularity machine makes McDavid valuable, while keeping Francis (who was grossly under appreciated) down.

If the injury keeps him out the bulk of the season, the hype machine might die down enough that there's some deals to be had over the summer. Once UD floods the market in a few years with autos & game used, obviously the prices of some cards will drop (no way the YG maintains $300.... it will probably settle in closer to Crosby in the $200-$250 range) but if you really think that this kid is going to just be another guy in the league, and three years these YGs will be selling for half of what they are now..... I think that's what I'd call delusional

"when have hockey card values EVER been about on-ice performance?"

That's what I base my values (and offers) on all the time...hell odds about "market". The market means diddly squat to me. Always has, always will.

I never buy based on what a player MIGHT do. This, to me, is an idiotic thing to do. I mean, if you shell out, say, $350-$400 for the newest "big thing" and the team sucks- or the player gets injured - you're out a lot of money.

This is why I wait a few years, to see how that player is doing and then I compare the projections with actual stats and see how close they came. If they don't measure up to projections, you don't get the amount you expect to get from me.

[30ranfordfan]

I agree very much that the fourth liners are much better players than they were 10 years ago (or even 5).

The non-calls that happen every time I watch a game are much closer to those Derian Hatcher years than Crosby's early season though.... and that's my point.

My working theory: The NHL still doesn't have the guts to say "any contact with your opponents head will result in a suspension" (especially not long suspensions, and not while boxing is still just a 5 minute major) but they know that how open things were 10 years ago (i.e. faster) also leads to more changes for serious injuries. Little hooks and holds, the kind you couldn't do to Crosby in 2008, they're letting players get away with them now.

They're letting the clutching & grabbing make a comeback, even if the players doing it are more skilled than 15 years ago.

Strongly disagree with your rationale here. If anything, the league is as geared towards strong skating and scoring as it ever has been. The difference is that nowadays, your fourth line grinders are as good at skating as your top line guys, if not better.

The 90's and early 2000's were a pain to watch, with a whole bunch of Derian Hatcher style players dragging every skill player to the ice.

The 70's and 80's firewagon style of hockey was certainly entertaining, but go back and watch a game and the quality of play is awful. The amount of goals scored while the goalie is standing flat footed are absolutely astonishing. A guy like Guy Lafleur was able to succeed on talent alone, meaning he was free to smoke a few cigarettes in between periods. Now every player is in peak physical condition from the top of the lineup to the bottom, and if one guy is playing poorly he has to worry about the 9 or 10 prospects in the AHL waiting to snatch up his spot.

There's no chance we'll see another stat machine like Gretzky, but the reason is because the players are BETTER now, not worse.

[30ranfordfan]

Hey man, and fair enough. If that's how you want to value cards - I'm not going to try and tell you that you should do otherwise.

But the prices people are charging at card shows, selling for on forums, what eBay auctions realize, and what a magazine will ultimately write down as a value: It's what the market says that value is, and that value is going to be based on performance.

Look, it's a card that's probably limited to about 50,000 copies. You don't need to tell me that it's WAY over valued right now.... but I also have no intent to pay $300 for it. I'l wait for Walmart to put blasters on sale, and break 30 of them, and pray to McJesus that I pull a couple :)

"when have hockey card values EVER been about on-ice performance?"

That's what I base my values (and offers) on all the time...hell odds about "market". The market means diddly squat to me. Always has, always will.

I never buy based on what a player MIGHT do. This, to me, is an idiotic thing to do. I mean, if you shell out, say, $350-$400 for the newest "big thing" and the team sucks- or the player gets injured - you're out a lot of money.

This is why I wait a few years, to see how that player is doing and then I compare the projections with actual stats and see how close they came. If they don't measure up to projections, you don't get the amount you expect to get from me.

[theboxbreaker96]

"when have hockey card values EVER been about on-ice performance?"

That's what I base my values (and offers) on all the time...hell odds about "market". The market means diddly squat to me. Always has, always will.

I never buy based on what a player MIGHT do. This, to me, is an idiotic thing to do. I mean, if you shell out, say, $350-$400 for the newest "big thing" and the team sucks- or the player gets injured - you're out a lot of money.

This is why I wait a few years, to see how that player is doing and then I compare the projections with actual stats and see how close they came. If they don't measure up to projections, you don't get the amount you expect to get from me.

Do you do the same with everything else? Do you ever get the new phone? TV? Car? Laptop? Video Game? It can be anything. Its the same thing. I try not to buy when cards are new and high prices. I usually wait till they come down. But have I ever bought a new thing when I know prices will go down? Absolutely. For example I bought new video game for $60 even though I know I can wait a couple Months and pay $40 or $30.

You do your thing, Ill do mine, Everyone else will do theirs. People complaining about others wanting the next great/new thing but it happens everywhere not just in hockey cards and we have all done it.

[pur3strpker0]

Weren't people complaining that you could not get your value back when you hit the top rookie from a box break? And now people are complaining that it's too much money for a top rookie that at least breaks even?

[theboxbreaker96]

Weren't people complaining that you could not get your value back when you hit the top rookie from a box break? And now people are complaining that it's too much money for a top rookie that at least breaks even?

Bingo!!!!!!! Yeah when something good happens for the hobby its still bad.

[rydlar99]

Weren't people complaining that you could not get your value back when you hit the top rookie from a box break? And now people are complaining that it's too much money for a top rookie that at least breaks even?

LOL well played sir

[KingKuba]

He will be far better than anyone not named Gretzky or Mario. To put Malkin, Stamkos and Selanne in the same category is a joke.

It's a joke to put Mcdavid with Legends and future HOfemers...

Malkin...

85 points rookie year...calder
2 x Art Ross
Hart
Conn Smythe (most playoff points in the modern era)
Cup
#2 in ppg's active players
50 goal season
3x 100 point seasons

Tell me...how is McDavid going to be better?
He can't...

NHL will not allow superstars to flourish anyway so he'll just be another Mackinnon, Duchene, RNH, Hall, Drouin, etc.

Stamkos and Ovie are two fastest to 250 goals in the modern era....McDavid has no chance...

Selanne lead the league in Goals with 52 in the DPE era where scoring was just as low as it is NOW.
Majority of his points/goals were after the high scoring NHL...
McDavid will never come close to any of it.... 3 goal scoring titles...


Everyone already has low scoring excuses for him...even though scoring has been about the same the last 5 years and it was even lower in the DPE...
Just cause the top leaders were lower don't mean anything....Ovie still scored over 50 goals which shows you how much better he is than everyone...
McDavid should not even be mentioned with any of these players until he does something...

This list is pretty simple.. :

1.	Alex Ovechkin	0.625
2.	Steven Stamkos	0.558
3.	Sidney Crosby	0.474
4.	Jaromir Jagr	0.466
5.	Evgeni Malkin	0.453

1.	Sidney Crosby	1.342
2.	Evgeni Malkin	1.186
3.	Alex Ovechkin	1.177
4.	Jaromir Jagr	1.161
5.	Steven Stamkos	1.000

McDavid will not be on it after 5-10 years.
All other players should never be mentioned as Top 5 in the league until they enter these lists with enough games played. Simple as that.

Maybe you have a different definition of "better".....But he needs 3 art ross, 2 harts, 2 conn smythe, 2 cups, 5 - 100 point season, 2-50 goals seasons in 10 years JUST to be better than Malkin....

Only reason his YG will stay afloat for longer is all the delusional Edmonton/Canadian collectors....

Remember when people at the expo paid $150 for John Tavares YG.....now that's funny...now $30 and he's actually good....
McDavid might as good as Johnny T...that's about it...

[KingKuba]

Weren't people complaining that you could not get your value back when you hit the top rookie from a box break? And now people are complaining that it's too much money for a top rookie that at least breaks even?

More about Distributors/retailers jacking up the prices....My LCS will have a box for $160 cad now....lol
If someone wants to pay $300 for a McDavid YG that's fine with me...

[30ranfordfan]

Selanne did lead the league in goals (with 52) during the height of the dead puck era (1997-98). A season that had 3 50+ goal scorers (LeClair & Bure were the other two) and one guy that topped 100 points (Jagr, with 102).

Anyone think we'll see 3 50 goal scorers this year? (I don't). How many 100 point players? (1, if we're lucky).

Goals are down. They're down almost as low as 1997-98. Teams are currently averaging 2.67 goals per game. In the height of the dead puck era (97-98) they averaged 2.64 (there's been 4 seasons since 97-98 that were lower than this year's current average..... all were before the lockout of 2004).

If you don't think scoring is down, look at the numbers. 2005-06 was the high mark in goals (since 1995-96). The only years there has been a raise since then were 08-09, and a tiny one in 13-14 (and we're way below 12-13 numbers now).

(And anyone thinking that these numbers seem pretty small: Spread that out over 1230 games. A drop from 2.73 goals / per team / per game (last years numbers) to 2.67 (this year's current number) represents a drop of 148 (total) in the season. It adds up.)

The difference between Crosby & Ovechkin's rookie year compared to now? The league is currently on pace to score 1009 FEWER goals this year than they did in 05-06.


So, yeah. If you look at at stats, the idea that anyone (today) is going to be able to put up the numbers that Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, etc did (with regularity) from 05 through 09, it's simply not going to happen. We tend to talk about "eras" in a way that says comparing Ovechkin to Maurice Richard is stupid (most people would agree) since the game has changed so dramatically since the 1950s. Truth is though, comparing Ovechkin's numbers to Richard's is stupid, but so is comparing them to pretty much anyone who isn't within 3 or 4 years of his age (who would have been able to take advantage of some of the better scoring years we had pre-2010, and is also adversely affected by the lowering scoring today).




Having said all that, I do agree with the sentiment that McDavid should not be getting compared to the all time greats, because he hasn't done anything yet - other than enter the league with a lot of hype. I just don't think anyone should fool themselves into thinking that the hype isn't warranted. The ability he's got, what he's put on display in Junior the last couple of seasons, there is no reason to think that he can't be an elite player for years - and very likely the best player on the planet at some point.