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that is also on the assumption that every 999 FWA are placed into the product, which based on previous years is not the case at all.
14/15 would be the prime example. You receive 3 non-Auto FW per box, each with a /999 count and 60 players.
However, you did not receive 3 FW Autos per box, each with a /999 count and 60 players. That alone shows that not all 999 FWAs were placed into the 14/15 product. Or at least not as many as the non-Auto FW.
The better estimate to use in the 15/16 year, is to count the non-Auto FW per case, which I thought was 12 (1 per box), but some have the non-Auto FW are replaced with a Limited non-Auto FW /25. I am also unsure if Matt Murray's "counts" as a non-auto FW.
This is again, dependent on UD actually putting all /999 of the non-Auto FW into the product which I doubt.
Making the assumptions of
1) hold back 5% for QA
2) Matt Murray counts as a non-Auto FW
3) 1 Non-Auto FW per box
35 Total non-Auto FW Players X 949 cards (assuming 5% holdback) = 33, 215 cards = 33, 215 boxes = 2767.92 cases
Using that estimate, and taking the longest odds cards - 13/14 Update Pavel Bure - SOTT or AM - 1:75,960 packs, there would be 8.75 SOTT and 8.75 AM Pavel Bure Cards.
And to count the Group A Global Chirography cards - 1:16,462, would be 40 Total Group A Global Chirography Cards. Assuming an even split, 20 and 20 for Ovi and Jagr.
Issues with the calcs above
1) that's an odd case number run. Would UD print a round number of cases? 2800 or 3000 cases?
2) I haven't watched enough breaks to know the mean or average for the non-Auto FW per case
3) Figuring out what they hold back is a crapshoot
4) assuming they do not make any mistakes while posting their odds.
You've touched on this already, but reading a few other posts I did want to mention that.....
There is no guarantee that the split was even. There's been lots of cases over the years in UD products were certain cards were much harder (or easier?) to find than others, despite being in the same "group".
All the group means is the overall insert ratio of all cards in that group. If the 40 Total Group A is what exists (no reason to believe your math is wrong) that could be 20 each..... or 35 Ovechkins, with 5 Jagrs..... or any other combination you can think of.
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curious as to what is the benefit/downside of having SP/SSP cards not numbered?
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