When you buy a box or case what criteria do you use to evaluate It as a success or bust.

[doniceage]

I ask this as I see so many people complain about not getting their money back on a box or case? So there so many questions to ask.

Do you look for a certain bv to be pulled Per box.
Do you look sell all the hits then determine if the box is a success (might take time).
Hit a certain number of pc cards.

I asked this as we did a gb's of 10/11 Pinnacle 12 box case. Break can be found here:
https://www.sportscardforum.com/threa...oupbreak/page2

Thanks to @Gallinator we figured we hit close to $1600 in bv on inserts and above (no base). With a case costing $300 or less. That roughly hitting 5 times the price of a case. So if we one was to recoup 18 percent on the dollar amount one would break even.

Just a thought to see what other collectors think.

Don

[jameslacarte]

i pick the 3rd or 4th box in the row lol.. it rarely works for me.. Gonna try a new approach now. Im not sure what that is yet but somethings gotta give..

[Gallinator]

For the new stuff, I definitely factor in the chance of hitting that "lottery" card - something that pays for the box (or several) on its own in terms of actual (or potential if I don't want to sell) cash back. I won't hit it the vast majority of the time, but I'll factor in that it's worth maybe 20-25% of the "value" of the box. Add a few more minor considerations and I'm satisfied if I can get 60-65% back on a box. Unfortunately, it usually comes to far less than that, which is why I break very little new product or just do a few team breaks. You still lose but at least all the hits are a team you like!

For the older product, I figure I need to hit about 4-5X BV in order to get my money's worth. I don't sell much, but when I do it's around 20-25% BV (e.g. a $20 card on eBay sells for $6, nets me about $5 after costs). This cuts out most of the older stuff, too, unless I am breaking just to add to the set or to get trade bait. There is very little on the market that I consider a "good buy" right now but 10/11 Pinnacle is pretty sweet, as was 10/11 Donruss when it was selling under $30/box and right now 12/13 UD is a nice break at $30. Once boxes start hitting $70/80/100 it seems that the value proposition just slides out the door for most of them.

[MacDuff77]

I consider myself a set collector, so when it comes to opening boxes, I hope to hit as many set needs as I can from the box. Most times I determine what inserts and subsets to collect based on the odds and amount per set. For me, that means a product like Artifacts doesn't really work, as I only come away with minimal amount of set needs if I am not collecting parallels, jersey or auto cards. For example, I'll end up spending $120 CA on a box to come away with a bunch of base and only a couple of numbered subsets. The rest, I use as trade bait or sell. In the long run, I find it wasn't worth the investment. I could find what I'm looking for cheaper on Ebay. The same thing occured with Black Diamond in 13/14. Only getting a couple of Quad Diamonds per box sucked, especially when I hit the same ones in a row, so I turned to trading/buying for my set needs.

But for sets like Score, Prizm, Upper Deck Series 1&2 and even a product like Champs and Select, I've enjoyed opening them as I usually came away with a tonne of set needs and I'd know that opening a few boxes of each product would result in a lot of PC needs (and it helped that all boxes were under $100 when I bought them). There's only been a few times since 13/14 when I started collecting again that I opened a box and got zero needs from it (Artifacts, Portfolio, Black Diamond).

[doniceage]

@Gallinator
Sent you a price list so you can get a idea of prices for a Best to Worst list of future breaks.

[doniceage]

I consider myself a set collector, so when it comes to opening boxes, I hope to hit as many set needs as I can from the box. Most times I determine what inserts and subsets to collect based on the odds and amount per set. For me, that means a product like Artifacts doesn't really work, as I only come away with minimal amount of set needs if I am not collecting parallels, jersey or auto cards. For example, I'll end up spending $120 CA on a box to come away with a bunch of base and only a couple of numbered subsets. The rest, I use as trade bait or sell. In the long run, I find it wasn't worth the investment. I could find what I'm looking for cheaper on Ebay. The same thing occured with Black Diamond in 13/14. Only getting a couple of Quad Diamonds per box sucked, especially when I hit the same ones in a row, so I turned to trading/buying for my set needs.

But for sets like Score, Prizm, Upper Deck Series 1&2 and even a product like Champs and Select, I've enjoyed opening them as I usually came away with a tonne of set needs and I'd know that opening a few boxes of each product would result in a lot of PC needs (and it helped that all boxes were under $100 when I bought them). There's only been a few times since 13/14 when I started collecting again that I opened a box and got zero needs from it (Artifacts, Portfolio, Black Diamond).

Thanks that is what I was looking for. The only thing I hate about set needs as I buy some from time to time. The big problem is the shipping cost especially if the seller does not combine shopping or keeps it high per additional card won. It totally makes no sense to buy set needs when they are very low end as the shipping cost makes it ridiculous. Nice to have sites out there that help keep sh cost low.

Don

[theboxbreaker96]

Usually if I get 1 decent hit Ill be okay with the box. 50% Return is where I start to say I'm satisfied. 75% return I'm pretty thrilled. 75%+ Is fantastic.

[JEG]

For me it depends on the value of the original box, S1/S2 to me are a good value box (mind you the price has crept up)

SPA has normally been great as well especially as I prefer autos to inserts/men however this years seems to be chalked full of SOTT and other autos taking away from what I consider the set autos. I would expect 2 FWA as a minimum unless one of the other autos is a doozie but that's just my opinion.

If I am fortunate enough to bust a box over $250 i have a different set of expectations, for me at that price I'm looking for quality named autos (top rookies, Star players, and HOF) and the mem should be ranged from sweet to ridiculous. Most cards should be autos and the boxes should be balanced. I can see some very disappointed people opening Cup if your big hits are no named rookies and average players.

That said I stayed away from 15/16 as I seen the product as overpriced and low on hits due to a McDavid chance. I understand, it's just business but hoping 16/17 balances out more

just my two cents. Good luck to everyone breaking!

[doniceage]

Usually if I get 1 decent hit Ill be okay with the box. 50% Return is where I start to say I'm satisfied. 75% return I'm pretty thrilled. 75%+ Is fantastic.

How often do you think as a average that you ever fall under the 50% return?
@TheBoxBreaker

For me it depends on the value of the original box, S1/S2 to me are a good value box (mind you the price has crept up)

SPA has normally been great as well especially as I prefer autos to inserts/men however this years seems to be chalked full of SOTT and other autos taking away from what I consider the set autos. I would expect 2 FWA as a minimum unless one of the other autos is a doozie but that's just my opinion.

If I am fortunate enough to bust a box over $250 i have a different set of expectations, for me at that price I'm looking for quality named autos (top rookies, Star players, and HOF) and the mem should be ranged from sweet to ridiculous. Most cards should be autos and the boxes should be balanced. I can see some very disappointed people opening Cup if your big hits are no named rookies and average players.

That said I stayed away from 15/16 as I seen the product as overpriced and low on hits due to a McDavid chance. I understand, it's just business but hoping 16/17 balances out more

just my two cents. Good luck to everyone breaking!

Well if you stayed away from 15/16 you probably been saving up some money lol?

Don

[doniceage]

i pick the 3rd or 4th box in the row lol.. it rarely works for me.. Gonna try a new approach now. Im not sure what that is yet but somethings gotta give..

It amazing how many superstitions we pick up lol.

Don