PDA

View Full Version : Why isn't this sold out already?



S.A.M.
02-06-2006, 10:25 AM
http://dacardworld.com/sports/item.das?sku=DK1986LQ8Y&nPar=1

I was looking through Beckett's newsletter archive and found the article about DACardWorld's $1 Mil Case purchase. So I went to their site to see what they had left and they had a box of the 86-87 Fleer available. My question is why isn't it sold out already? I'm not too familiar, but if you're pretty much guaranteed 3 jordan rcs would that make up the cost? What do Jordans graded bgs 8.5, 9, and 9.5 sell for?

Greenbeans
02-06-2006, 11:10 AM
do you have 11,000 to buy a box? if so go ahead, i cant afford a pack much less a box

S.A.M.
02-06-2006, 11:17 AM
Point taken, but really I'm asking if what's known to be in the box (4 jordan stickers and 3 jordan RCs) can be resold for a profit, or is the $11K more than you could get selling BGS graded Jordan RCs on eBay.

Greenbeans
02-06-2006, 11:34 AM
there is an inherit problem however in purchasing a box of wax thats 20 years old, as i have found out in baseball. there is no guarantee that these cards are going to come out of the pack gem mint, or even mint for that matter. was the case ever dropped? did a box slip out of someones hands? are there comdition issues to begin with in dealing with this set? there are a lot more questions than answers in regards to all of this, and for 11,000 - someone is going to do homework before they buy

Star_Cards
02-06-2006, 01:26 PM
well said greenbeans. I'd much rather buy a collection for $11K if I was trying to turn a profit.

I have a second year MJ sticker that was pulled from a pack. It was stuck to the gum. The guy tried to pull it off and ripped half of the face of the card. He was going to toss it so I took it just to have it.

Professor-Chaos
02-06-2006, 03:01 PM
At $11,750.00 a box, I can't even afford to open the web page!

P-C
--

LakersMC
02-06-2006, 03:44 PM
I haven't looked at 86/87 Fleer in detail in a while. But sometimes you are better off leaving the box unopened. I mean, there are plenty of Jordan RCs floating around out there. But how many unopened boxes are there?

I remember I was shopping around for an 86/87 Fleer box back when they went for around $2000. I was planning on completing my set at the time & selling the extras. The dealer sounded shocked that I was going to open the box at all.

S.A.M.
02-06-2006, 04:28 PM
LakersMC, I hear you're point. For instance, with the unopened box you're possibly selling to someone's hopes that there's a BGS 9.5 jordan RC in the box. Which they'll probably pay less on than the BGS 9.5's actual market value. Or you may open the box get a 9.5 (or crap, that's the gamble) and sell that for more than you would have unopened. To me you either have one of two views on the unopened box. Either you think that the card that will grade well isn't in the box so you sell it unopened to someone that does, thus profiting in your view because you sold it for more than you think it's worth. Or you think that a great condition card is in the box so you bust and sell that card.

So my thought was, with 3 jordan RCs (plus the 4 stickers) in the box, what are the likely grades of the card and with those conservative estimates can money be made on the box? From what it looks like, the answer is NO, 11K is too high. At $8K a box though maybe it's more reasonable, which is what DACardworld paid for it. I guess I answered my own question, DACardworld has overpriced it, ie. the joy of busting 36 packs doesn't make up the difference between 8K and 11K!

BTW, your Laker's auto collection is one of the coolest collecting endeavors I've seen. What's your plan to get the Kobe?

LakersMC
02-06-2006, 04:53 PM
BTW, your Laker's auto collection is one of the coolest collecting endeavors I've seen. What's your plan to get the Kobe?

The 86/87 box really is a gamble. I'm sure the people at Dave & Adam's did some marketing/sales analysis on how much they should sell it for taking into account the "break the box or leave unopened" issue.

I actually bought my Lakers Master Collection from D&A. The funny thing about Kobe is he signs up a storm on the road (from what I've heard), but shuts down when he comes back to LA. So I dunno...

BTW, beckett is going to put me in their BKB Plus mag as a "Super Collector" next month for that autograph collection.
http://www.sportscardforum.com/showthread.php?t=139455&page=2

S.A.M.
02-06-2006, 05:50 PM
Congratulations, that's great.

CardCollector718
02-08-2006, 12:22 AM
if i was a powerseller on ebay that sells like 100 cards a day i would buy that box open it pull some jordans resell the cards

S.A.M.
02-14-2006, 11:14 PM
It's now gone, so somebody must've seen the value in it. I'm collecting BGS prices for these cards and will post what I think is the expected return if the box had been purchased.

S.A.M.
03-23-2006, 07:47 AM
I don't know if anybody cares any more but here are the results of my analysis on this box. First off, I thought Dave & Adam's price of $11,750 would at least be close to the expected value of the box, but it wasn't, it totally overestimated it. By taking the average eBay sale price of BGS graded cards from this set, the distributions of BGS grades for this set based on their population report, and the odds of receiving cards in this set and the expected sale value of your pull, after grading costs is $7,621, only 65% of the sale price! Out of this box of 432 cards one would only expect to pull about 7 cards that would grade a 9.5, and 37 that grade a 9. Of course the main card of interest is the Jordan RC, so the odds of pulling a Jordan that would grade a 9.5, and make the box worth it's price tag, are only 1 in 10,000!

Well I think we knew this before, and the analysis supports this, that the box is very overpriced and I think Dave & Adam's overpaid for it. In a Beckett article they said they paid $10,000 per box, but then again maybe they didn't overpay because people have apparently purchased the box from them. Don't get me wrong, I don't expect to get full or greater value out of every box I buy, but when I think about the value remaining between what I paid for it and what I can sell it for, basically the amount of money I'm willing to pay for the the fun of busting the packs, $4,000 is just too much for 36 packs of fun.