The Official JAMEIS WINSTON Thread

[Jameis1of1]

Thought I would pop back in and see how things are going. I know that I am not as well versed as you are in stats and am hoping that you can answer a question for me. How does one of the worse completion percentages of the week (47.4%) among QBs equate to the best QBR?

Just hoping you can help explain your claim of the best QBR of the week. I didn't check to see that he had the best QBR. Just taking your word for it. Thanks

You didn't honor your word … again. You said you'd stay out of this thread, so, please, feel free to keep your word :-)

However, I will answer your question, as that's what I do, and it's fun for me … QBR is the best QB stat there is as it's a "comprehensive stat" rather than a one-off stat like "completion percentage" or even a "mildly comprehensive stat" like passer rating which only includes attempts, completions, yards, TDs and INTs.

QBR basically takes everything you can think of into account, including everything "passer rating" does, along with fumbles, sacks, rushing, down and distance, etc. So, while it's not a perfect stat, it certainly is the "king of QB stats".

For example, Jameis' QBR wouldn't drop hardly at all for the hail-mary interception he threw at the end of the game, as it was a meaningless play and a TD would have been just as useless in regards to winning the game as the INT was, as they were down 14 anyways … however that pick dropped his "passer rating" a ton as passer rating doesn't take the score, down and distance, etc., into account. Basically there's no "context" to mere "passer rating" compared to QBR.

Also, you once again stated that I made a claim I never made, which you know annoys me … if you re-read my post I said that Jameis had the highest QBR of any of the "top 7" QBs in QBR, not that he had the highest QBR of any QB for the entire week. Big Ben had the highest QBR for the week, but Big Ben wasn't in the "top 7" in QBR for the entire season leading up to last week's game.

I would encourage you to do some research on QBR as it truly is the best QB stat around, even if it's not a perfect stat … QBR is "usually" the stat that most equates to "wins" and "losses" as well, as "usually" the QB with the higher QBR and his team beat the QB with the lower QBR and his team … Jameis Winston is actually the rare guy who happens to play on such a bad team that even his astonishly good QBR rarely seems to equate to wins.

However, generally speaking, the better the QBR the more that QB's "team" wins … a prime example of this is last night's game between the Seahawks and Vikings … someone who merely looks at "counting stats" will think Kirk Cousins played far better than Russell Wilson as he bested Russ in comp %, passing yards, yards per attempt, yards per completion, TD/Int ratio, and even had a far super context-less "passer rating (89.0 to a terrible 37.9) … BUT …. anyone who actually watched the game saw Cousins be ineffective almost the entire game until he racked up garbage stats, while Russ controlled the game (more so with his legs than his arm) and what do you know, Russ had the better QBR (47.5 to 26.7)!

In closing … QBR is not a "perfect stat" as there simply is no such thing as a perfect stat, but it's the best stat we have and the one that truly look at "context" and evaluates basically EVERYTHING that takes place during a game. Generally speaking guys who play on good teams have better QBRs than guys who play on bad teams, which is another reason why Jameis being 3rd in the entire NFL is so incredibly impressive … he's playing behind a terrible O-Line, has almost no run game support at all (has led the team in rushing in 50% of his starts), has one of the worst defenses in the league, has one of the worst special teams situations in the league, etc. If Jameis was playing for the Rams, Chiefs, Saints, etc., his QBR wouldn't be as impressive (though it still would be very impressive!), but that he's got the QBR he has while playing for the terrible Tampa Bay Buccaneers is quite incredible.

The above is NOT something you ever hear from the sports media, because (a) they promote the Jameis as a villain narrative where they run segments on him when he plays bad and ignore him when he plays well, and (b) they simply do NOT dig deep in their research as nearly all of their narratives are based on very cursory and rather childish research.

[22emmittzone]

Thanks for the explanation. Once again, you hurl insults to anyone who questions your "all knowing Oracle" stats. That is why I left the thread. You can't have a normal conversation to someone who questions you. Another thing I would question, is that from what I can see, Winston is tied for 6th in Total QBR this season. That is quite impressive given his overall stats. But, the fact that I claim you made a mistake leads to insults which is what some people resort to. Perhaps you looked at a list that did not include this week or a different site or whatever from what I did. That happens and there are inaccuracies between statistical sites.

If we could have a conversation without calling people stupid, not intelligent, or whatever then I would stick around in this thread. But, since you cannot even have one post regarding someone questioning your statistics without getting upset, I'm out for good. The reason people who question your stats don't stick around is because when they throw other stats back at you like completion percentage 47.4 or whatever, you resort to name calling because you get annoyed. QBR is one stat. Winston had a horrible game this week, especially in the second half. No matter what stats you are using, other stats do exist and play a part in telling the story. A 47.4% completion percentage is not good for a game and if that results in the #1 Total QBR rating of the week, then I would question the Total QBR algorithm.

Good luck with the thread as well as Winston's pursuit of a ring and the HOF. Take care and wish things could have been different, but I can have a conversation without calling someone names.

[Jameis1of1]

Thanks for the explanation.

My pleasure.

Once again, you hurl insults to anyone who questions your "all knowing Oracle" stats. That is why I left the thread. You can't have a normal conversation to someone who questions you.

Hurl insults? What comments are you reading, as they certainly aren't mine. I stated that you claimed I said something I didn't say, which you did. And, that when you do such, it annoys me, which it does. That is not "hurling insults", it is making an accurate statement followed by making a personal admission. And again, if you don't like the thread and don't like my answers, stop reading the thread, stop asking me questions and simply keep your word and stay away from the thread … it's not that hard to do.

Another thing I would question, is that from what I can see, Winston is tied for 6th in Total QBR this season. That is quite impressive given his overall stats. But, the fact that I claim you made a mistake leads to insults which is what some people resort to. Perhaps you looked at a list that did not include this week or a different site or whatever from what I did. That happens and there are inaccuracies between statistical sites.

Incorrect. I quoted QBR, also known as "Raw QBR" which has Jameis 3rd in the NFL; you just quoted "Total QBR" which is a slightly different stat, and my guess is that you know that and just want to troll again. I ALWAYS stand by 100% of the stats I quote and the posts I make & my last posts were 100% accurate as usual as Jameis Winston is 3rd in the entire NFL in QBR. He was tied for 3rd with Philip Rivers going into last week but then had the best QBR week of any of the "top 7 QBs in season QBR" and is now all alone in 3rd place behind only the top 2 leading MVP candidates: Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes.

If we could have a conversation without calling people stupid, not intelligent, or whatever then I would stick around in this thread. But, since you cannot even have one post regarding someone questioning your statistics without getting upset, I'm out for good.

Again, I did NOT insult you in any way in my last post … read it … I merely pointed out that you once again claimed I made a statement I never made, and I then made a personal admission that such annoys me … that is not hurling insults at you in any way. But, again, by all means, please keep your word this time, and stay away from the thread, since it obviously bothers you so greatly.

The reason people who question your stats don't stick around is because when they throw other stats back at you like completion percentage 47.4 or whatever, you resort to name calling because you get annoyed.

Sir, anyone reading this thread or my Twitter feed (and my Twitter followers like to read this thread as well - as I can make longer posts here - which accounts for the 13,000+ views of this thread) knows what you are saying is completely false. I did not resort to name calling in my last post and I took time to explain how QBR works to you and to answer your questions.

My statistical research has been used by main stream Tampa Bay media, I have had Twitter debates with main stream reporters from the Tampa Bay Times, ESPN, Bleacher Report, the former CEO of the Cleveland Browns, etc., and have won all of them while always maintaining a kind attitude and professionalism, while in almost every instance the opposing party has resorted to cursing, infantile ranting and even threatening to Dox me. I have a great many people who @ me on Twitter when they even merely see a member of the media slandering Jameis or using skewed stats as they know I'm the person that can refute such. I do all of this for fun and enjoy the back and forth with everyone, even the crazies who have tried to Dox me … I don't understand why anyone takes simple sports debates personally or freaks out over them … it should just be fun and it is absolutely fun for me.

By the way, it still sounds like you simply do not understand how QBR works, as you think that you "threw comp % at me" … comp % is included in QBR. I explained that to you. It didn't upset me one iota that you brought up comp % as doing so allowed me to explain to you how QBR works. If anything, I would think you'd say, "thank you for taking the time to answer my question" rather than just ranting about me attacking you and why you don't like the thread .. again … please, for your own peace and happiness, keep your word this time and stop reading or replying to this thread … there are plenty of other threads on this site you can occupy your time with.

QBR is one stat.

Such a statement shows you still do not comprehend what QBR is, in the least. It is the king of QB stats as it is "comprehensive" and takes tons of stats, including comp%, YPC, YPA, YPG, TDs, INTs, TD %, INT%, down and distance, rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt, sacks, fumbles, etc., etc., etc., all into account.

Winston had a horrible game this week, especially in the second half. No matter what stats you are using, other stats do exist and play a part in telling the story. A 47.4% completion percentage is not good for a game and if that results in the #1 Total QBR rating of the week, then I would question the Total QBR algorithm.

You simply don't understand QBR, nor do you seem to understand "context". I would suggest that you either familiarize yourself with how QBR works and why it is an infinitely better "stat" than a one-off stat like "comp %", or that you merely stick to simply looking at the "counting stats" and be content with those and that you not engage true statisticians who "dig deeper", for your own peace of mind.

Good luck with the thread as well as Winston's pursuit of a ring and the HOF. Take care and wish things could have been different, but I can have a conversation without calling someone names.

I stand by every word I typed … have a great day … buh-bye.

[22emmittzone]

Bye

[jwlawrence06]

I've got a different spin on the stats game...now looking back at your original hypothesis that 'Jameis WInston is the most statistically accomplished QB in NFL history at his age', you may be correct but I felt that was a little skewed. I ran this result set based on the following criteria:

Games started: 1-53 (53 is the total number of games Jameis Winston has started in his career to this point).
Passing attempts: >= 1,000 (since I feel the numbers would be potentially skewed if a QB threw less than 1,000 career passes).

Sorted by QB rating, Jameis Winston doesn't crack the top-20, which is a fascinating contrast to the stats you have presented:

Jameis 1.png


So I ran a different result, this time being # games played by QB through the age of 24 (must've been no older than 24 on December 31st of that season to qualify). The result is that only 3 QB's in NFL history have played more games than Jameis Winston through their 24th birthday, thus Jameis is around 1/2-2 years ahead of all the other QB's on the list. As a result, the 'totals through x age' statistics are skewed in Jameis' favor.

Jameis 2.png

[jwlawrence06]

Side note: 22emmittzone needs to bring his saltiness to Facebook or something else, not here.

[22emmittzone]

Since people are going to talk about me, I will chime in again. Apparently you didn't read back through the entire thread. When he can't handle the exact point that you presented by the stats being skewed and resorts to name calling, then I will get a little salty. I believe anyone would. He is just as salty, if not more and resorts to calling people stupid or other similar terms which belongs on facebook and other sites. If you want to create a thread to discuss Jameis then be open to a differing opinion. Every time I post, he calls me something. I'm not the one writing a thesis paper every time someone contradicts a stat or statement made all while calling them stupid, or lacking the ability to comprehend things, etc.... If he could handle an intelligent conversation then I would stick around. Since he can't, I'm out, but wanted to address your comment towards me.

I would like to reiterate that I made the same stat point you just made and got obliterated about how I just don't understand. Hopefully he will be cordial with you. Later and good luck.

Side note: 22emmittzone needs to bring his saltiness to Facebook or something else, not here.

[jplcom]

looking back at your original hypothesis that 'Jameis WInston is the most statistically accomplished QB in NFL history at his age', you may be correct but I felt that was a little skewed.

Correct, it is truthful and accurate to state that Winston is the most statistically accomplished for his age. It means that his career has the trajectory towards high statistical achievement. He's got a massive head start over a lot of HoFers and future HoFers. If he continues as he does, he will break a ton of records.

It's not worth getting all up in a tizzy trying to cut down Winston's accomplishments. It's better to put them into context. Is statistical achievement at a certain age AS VALID as after a certain amount of seasons or a certain amount of attempts? I would argue the latter but in no way does it take away from the former.

Games started: 1-53 (53 is the total number of games Jameis Winston has started in his career to this point).
Passing attempts: >= 1,000 (since I feel the numbers would be potentially skewed if a QB threw less than 1,000 career passes).

Sorted by QB rating, Jameis Winston doesn't crack the top-20

This to me is a more relevant way to make comparisons between QBs.

So I ran a different result, this time being # games played by QB through the age of 24 (must've been no older than 24 on December 31st of that season to qualify). The result is that only 3 QB's in NFL history have played more games than Jameis Winston through their 24th birthday, thus Jameis is around 1/2-2 years ahead of all the other QB's on the list. As a result, the 'totals through x age' statistics are skewed in Jameis' favor.

This is exactly how two different groups of people can present seemingly two completely different set of facts about a subject yet both be correct. Sometime checkout the different types of Unemployment Rates the federal government uses to calculate and watch how politicians will slide up and down the different types to fit their narrative.


tl:dr - Winston is the most statistically accomplished for his age. Is being the most accomplished at a given age as significant as most accomplished through 1000 attempts or 50 games? I say age < attempts or games

[Jameis1of1]

Since people are going to talk about me, I will chime in again.

Ugh, just keep your word and stop even reading this thread … you've said many times you were never going to post again and did so multiple times unprovoked, and now are doing so because jwlawrence06 asked you to take your saltiness to Facebook … just keep your word and stay away from this thread for everyone's sake and your own peace of mind … there's plenty of other threads to read and comment on.

Apparently you didn't read back through the entire thread. When he can't handle the exact point that you presented by the stats being skewed and resorts to name calling, then I will get a little salty. I believe anyone would. He is just as salty, if not more and resorts to calling people stupid or other similar terms which belongs on facebook and other sites.

I stand by 100% of what I have posted … 100%.

If you want to create a thread to discuss Jameis then be open to a differing opinion. Every time I post, he calls me something. I'm not the one writing a thesis paper every time someone contradicts a stat or statement made all while calling them stupid, or lacking the ability to comprehend things, etc.... If he could handle an intelligent conversation then I would stick around. Since he can't, I'm out, but wanted to address your comment towards me.

Anyone following me on Twitter or reading through this thread can see you're lying … I am almost impossible to offend, try to answer everyone's comments and questions in detail and have fun doing so.

I would like to reiterate that I made the same stat point you just made and got obliterated about how I just don't understand. Hopefully he will be cordial with you. Later and good luck.

I answered your question in great detail, you should have thanked me rather than freaking out …

Side note: 22emmittzone needs to bring his saltiness to Facebook or something else, not here.

He just can't seem to pull himself away from this thread … he pretends he hates my stats, hates my comments, etc., but for some reason, he just can't seem to pull himself away, even when he has given his own word multiple times that he won't post here anymore … it cracks me up.

[Jameis1of1]

I've got a different spin on the stats game...now looking back at your original hypothesis that 'Jameis WInston is the most statistically accomplished QB in NFL history at his age', you may be correct but I felt that was a little skewed. I ran this result set based on the following criteria:

Games started: 1-53 (53 is the total number of games Jameis Winston has started in his career to this point).
Passing attempts: >= 1,000 (since I feel the numbers would be potentially skewed if a QB threw less than 1,000 career passes).

Sorted by QB rating, Jameis Winston doesn't crack the top-20, which is a fascinating contrast to the stats you have presented:

So I ran a different result, this time being # games played by QB through the age of 24 (must've been no older than 24 on December 31st of that season to qualify). The result is that only 3 QB's in NFL history have played more games than Jameis Winston through their 24th birthday, thus Jameis is around 1/2-2 years ahead of all the other QB's on the list. As a result, the 'totals through x age' statistics are skewed in Jameis' favor.

GREAT WORK sir. THAT is research I can appreciate as it took you some time. Now, as for your conclusions, I disagree with them and will explain why.

Firstly, please understand that I started making the claim that Jameis was the most statistically accomplished passer of his age in NFL history when he became #1 ALL-TIME in NFL HISTORY in both passing yards & passing TD's before the age of 24. This season has been a rough one for Jameis as he's only played in 6.5 of the teams first 13 games, and by the time this season ends I believe Jameis will probably be 2nd or 3rd all-time in passing yards by the age of 25 and 2nd all-time in passing TDs by the age of 25, so he won't be on as legendary a pace as he was going into this season, though he'll still easily be on a Hall of Fame pace, statistically speaking.

Secondly, I don't give that much credence to passer rating, at least not compared to QBR, as QBR is a truly comprehensive metric that puts the rather antiquated passer rating to shame … however, as QBR has only been around for 7 years, using passer rating is all one can do with the older QBs. Regardless, having a good O-Line and run game can greatly increase one's passer rating and Jameis has played behind a bad O-Line since he was drafted and with terrible run game support for all but his rookie year.

I honestly don't think there's a single person who appreciates stats that would value "passer rating" above QBR these days, and again, while Jameis' passer rating has gone down this season, he is 3rd in the entire NFL in QBR, behind only the top 2 MVP candidates, Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes, and that is quite amazing.

Thirdly, Jameis has played more "games" than most players of his same age in NFL history, however that doesn't "skew" the stats, it simply is what it is. I find it silly when people try to downplay statistical accomplishments of young players … back when I had a major financial investment in Kobe, I would post the same sort of "age-related stats" and people would freak out and say, "but, but, but, Kobe was 18 as a rookie and Jordan was 22" etc., but that was beside the point. I understood Kobe would never match Jordan's "per game" numbers as he did start as a mere teenager while Jordan was a man when he entered the league, but I also correctly predicted that Kobe would top Jordan's career points, assists and rebounds mark, in large part because he was so good, so young, and would be able to accumulate such stats … it's the same exact thing with Jameis Winston … he was good enough to be drafted #1 overall and handed the reigns to an NFL team at 21 years of age and that will help him compile career statistics that will likely blow most Hall of Fame QB's away.

Also, I find it interesting when people want to discount Jameis' stats because he started at a young age, but those same folks don't want to downgrade someone like Emmitt Smith's statistical accomplishments simply because he played 73 more career games than Barry Sanders and 108 more career games than Jim Brown … by the way, Emmitt was even younger than Jameis during his rookie year. Part of Emmitt's greatness was his longevity and the fact that he was able to start wracking up stats at such a young age, and there is a distinct possibility that by the time Jameis retires, he will be the all-time leader in passing yards and passing TDs and get into the HOF - just like Emmitt - but still never be considered in the class of Tom Brady or Otto Graham - just as Emmitt isn't considered in the same class as Jim Brown and Barry Sanders. And, I for one, will be A-OK with that. I am NOT a Buccaneers fan, nor a Seminoles fan and I root for a great many QBs in the NFL. Yes, I believe in Jameis' HOF future, but that doesn't mean I think he's the best QB in the NFL or even the best at any single aspect of QB'ing … I don't value "opinions", I value "data" and therefore I can appreciate your research.