2019-20 UD MVP Autograph Print Runs

[Rraincock]

What we know for sure:

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Overall Odds
Group A: 4 autos available, 1:27,404 1:109,616 for any specific Group A card
Group B: 4 autos available, 1:11,647 1:46,588 for any specific Group B card
Group C: 5 autos available, 1:4,904 1:24,520 for any specific Group C card
Group D: 6 autos available, 1:1,725 1:10,350 for any specific Group D card
Group E: 6 autos available, 1:810 1:4,860 for any specific Group E card
Group F: 6 autos available, 1:621 1:3,726 for any specific Group F card

Type Specific Odds
Hobby: 1:267 (roughly 1 per case)
e-Pack: 1:227 (roughly 1 per ... e-case)
Pack Wars (?): 1:1,200

20 packs per Hobby Box
20 boxes per Hobby Case

Checklist for the 2019-20 MVP Autograph Set

201 Henrik Lundqvist B
202 Joe Thornton C
203 Steven Stamkos A
205 Marc-Andre Fleury C
206 Sean Monahan D
207 Johnny Gaudreau B
208 Mitch Marner D
209 Connor McDavid C
210 Leon Draisaitl C
211 Max Pacioretty D
213 Carey Price B
214 John Tavares B
215 Nikita Kucherov A
216 Patrik Laine C
217 Auston Matthews A
218 Alexander Ovechkin A
219 Max Domi D
220 Brandon Gignac F
223 Filip Zadina E
227 Erik Brannstrom E
228 Taro Hirose D
231 Alexandre Texier D
233 Libor Hajek F
236 Max Jones F
238 Nathan Bastian F
239 Philippe Myers F
241 Rudolfs Balcers F
245 Vitaly Abramov E
246 Zack MacEwen E
248 Quinn Hughes E
249 Ryan Poehling E

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Let's play a numbers game.
Lets take the Alexander Ovechkin Group A autograph (arguably the most valuable of the Group A cards, comparable to the Matthews). How many total cards would there be out there? It all comes down to how many more times rarer The Cup is to MVP Hobby. Let me explain (and adjust my tinfoil hat):

• We know that the overall odds of a Group A autograph are 1:27,404. There are 4 autos in that group, making the odds of any particular card in that quartet 1:109,616. It doesn't look like there are autographs in the retail, blaster, or fat packs. Suck it Walmart!

• We will assume that the print runs of each card are equal within a specific group. I do this because should there have been a card that was within a specific group and a SSP compared to the rest of the group, it would easily be boosted up to the next group. If a group B card were half the print run of the rest (causing another to be of a larger print run in turn) they would very much line up with other groups. So for every 1 Group A we get 2.35 Group B, 5.59 Group C, 15.89 group D, 33.83 Group E, and 44.13 Group F. There might be minor variations within one group, but not significant ones. No Sean Avery stick waving action in the face of Martin Brodeur happening here!

• In order to make all pack types equal, we need to figure out the ratio of auto hits in the three streams. We know that (H):(E):(PW) is (267):(227):(1,200). If I normalize for the rarest pack type to hit an autograph (Pack Wars) and make that value a standard 1, the ratio of (H):(E):(PW) is (4.49):(5.29):(1.00). We predict that the overall odds of an Ovechkin autograph are 1:109,616 total packs. I shall assume that there is AT LEAST 1 in each of the Hobby (H), e-Pack (E), and Pack Wars (PW) streams - it keeps the odds goblins happy.

• If the overall autograph ratio of (H):(E):(PW) is (4.49):(5.29):(1.00), and we assume there is at least one Alex Ovechkin in each type (at overall pack odds of 1:109,616), we need at least 109,616 packs of each type. I think this is very low as 109,616 (H) packs only makes 5,480 (H) boxes and 274 (H) cases. Lets assume then that there are equal distributions of the Ovechkin card across the print run. This is to say that if you have one Ovechkin in all of the (PW) packs, you would need 4.49 in all of the (H) packs and 5.29 in all of the (E) packs to maintain the overall odds of 1:109,616 across all of the packs involved. If you cut the production of (H) and/or the (E), then the overall odds of finding an Ovechkin go down very quickly. This gives us 492,175 (H), 579,868 (E), and 109,616 (PW) packs to make the numbers work. Does 24,608 boxes (20 packs) of (H) make any sense? Cases are 20 boxes... so does 1,230 cases make sense? Maybe at first it looks ok... but then again, so did Patrick Stefan.

• The rarest cards UD makes are The Cup (at least I hope so!)... and there is at least 1 base card per pack (249 print run and 90 in the set for the 2017-18). That makes 22,410 boxes and in 6 boxes per case chunks, 3735 total cases (I know, I know, some packs have more than one base card... yadda yadda). There is NO WAY ON THE PLANET that there is 3.04 times the cases of The Cup than (H) MVP.... so lets make the VERY JUSTIFIABLE minimum assumption that there is twice as much (H) MVP cases made as The Cup. That puts us at 7,470 minimum total hobby cases of (H), with a minimum total (H) box count of 149,400, and a minimum total (H) pack count of 2,988,000. Remember that this nearly 3 million pack count total for (H) is assuming that MVP (H) has double the print run of 2017-18 The Cup.... I would suggest that it has more like 100 times, as MVP is as rare as first overall draft picks with Oiler's RCs.

• Lets go back to the initial assumption that there was only a single Ovechkin autograph in each of the streams (#/3 minimum). I think we can update this information with the assumed minimum pack outs for (H) of 2,988,000. In that many (H) packs you would be assumed to find 27.26 Ovechkin Autographs. If we reasonably assume that pack production of (E) and (PW) are at least that of (H) if not more, then there would be 32.06 Ovechkin cards in (E) and 6.07 Ovechkin cards in (PW). This would put the total print run of the Ovechkin autograph at least at 65.39. Sort of like landing Chicago in a group break - a not bad to meh.

• Filling out this same thought process for the others, each Group A has a projected print run of 65.39, Group B is 153.86, Group C is 292.32, Group D is 692.54, Group E is 1474.85, and Group F is 1923.72. This seems kinda reasonable... the Ovechkin Auto is probably going to go for between $100 and $200, which is reasonable for an autograph limited to about 65 that is a high profile chase card. I feel sorry for those rookies who have to sign pages and pages of sticker autos - remember they also have EVERY OTHER SET UD puts out to sign.

• SO (as I adjust my tinfoil hat a bit) I think it is reasonable to assume that these minimum assumed print runs are VERY LOW compared to what is really out there. We will never know. UD does a good job of hiding production runs. Would it hurt the hobby if we knew that a few hundred thousand (if not most of a million) copes of base cards were out there? MVP is the most printed of all the sets... sort of the modern Victory - but still nothing compared to ProSet!.

• I wonder how far off the print run of the flagship UD series 1 is from MVP.... I really don't care that much in the end, just as long as there are great looking and rare cards out there to chase. I love that there are autographs in this year's MVP set. I still think there should be a 1/1 hard signed auto parallel of which the silver autos were made. I know this isn't possible, as UD uses vectors of the autos (see Alexander Ovechkin MVP rookie). A nice selection of players... most of the E and F autos are rookies. Interesting that McDavid isn't in the rarest class.

Check my math... is my tinfoil hat a little tight?


Cheers, and GO REBELS GO



- Rob


* Disclaimer *

All of this is hypothetical and based on information released to D&A, Beckett, C&C, Cardboard Connection and Breakaway Sports Cards. If release information changes, then the information above would change. Please don't show up at my door with a hockey stick, Chris Carlin!

[jackpot]

For a product like this it's pretty easy to figure out the print run for a card, you look at how many super script /25 there is per case, from there you can calculate how much hobby packs there is.

[creasecollector]

Nice work, lots of math right here.

[30ranfordfan]

What we know for sure:

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• We will assume that the print runs of each card are equal within a specific group. I do this because should there have been a card that was within a specific group and a SSP compared to the rest of the group, it would easily be boosted up to the next group. If a group B card were half the print run of the rest (causing another to be of a larger print run in turn) they would very much line up with other groups. So for every 1 Group A we get 2.35 Group B, 5.59 Group C, 15.89 group D, 33.83 Group E, and 44.13 Group F. There might be minor variations within one group, but not significant ones. No Sean Avery stick waving action in the face of Martin Brodeur happening here!

Your math looks correct to me, at least at first glance. I want to bring up this above point.

If you look at past releases, when UD uses "groups", that assumption is pretty much categorically incorrect. There are almost always SPs within all groups.... but "SP" is relative to that group.

You came up with a print run of roughly 65.39, for each of the 4 Group A autos.... meaning there is approximately 261.56 total Group A autos out there. I'll bet your number is pretty close to accurate for the total, but I'll bet that at least one (if not all) of the cards have a different print run.

They do it on purpose, so you don't know how many copies of each are out there.

Last UD auto set I tried to build.... there were Groups A through G:

- Some A's harder to find than otheres
- There were B's harder to find than at least one A
- There were C's harder to find than some Bs
- There were a couple of D's harder to find than a couple of Cs
- Both E & F had cards that were more like a "common" D to find
- Even G had some cards tougher to find than Es and Fs.


The insertion ratio is correct, and your math for the total number in a particular group is correct.... let's say there are ACTUALLY 262 total Group A autos. There could very well be 100 copies of two of them, 50 copies of the 3rd, and only 12 of the 4th..... and UD will NOT tell you that.

[Rraincock]

For a product like this it's pretty easy to figure out the print run for a card, you look at how many super script /25 there is per case, from there you can calculate how much hobby packs there is.

That would be easy IFF (if and only if) UD supplied odds. It also gets complicated when you consider that there are some of the /25 cards in some of the other types of packs. Considering this, I would be surprised if a /25 card was any more common than 1:case.

Does this make sense to those folks who crack cases of MVP?

[Rraincock]

Thank you to everyone for putting in your 2 cents (or 5 cents in Canada) on this topic. Special thank you to those that checked my math. Keep it coming!!

[Rraincock]

Nice work, lots of math right here.

I only really collect Red Deer Rebels these days.... lots of time in my hands.

[jackpot]

That would be easy IFF (if and only if) UD supplied odds. It also gets complicated when you consider that there are some of the /25 cards in some of the other types of packs. Considering this, I would be surprised if a /25 card was any more common than 1:case.

Does this make sense to those folks who crack cases of MVP?

Super script and auto's are only available in hobby boxes, we don't need the odds, just watch a mvp break on youtube and look at how many super script are pulled

[Rraincock]

Super script and auto's are only available in hobby boxes, we don't need the odds, just watch a mvp break on youtube and look at how many super script are pulled

Hmmmmm.... the sales sheets say that Autos are found in Hobby, e-Pack, and Pack Wars streams. There is conflicting information on the /25 SS cards. Some flyers say hobby only and some say hobby + ePack.


The trouble is that if there is anything other than guaranteed numbers in a case for the SS and only a hobby insertion, calculations would involve a lot more guesswork. If there was a single SS in each case (20 boxes), and there is 250 cards in the set (SPs rookies As well as the base set), then you are looking at 6250 cases. This makes the print run if hobby MVP about 1.5x that of The Cup. I very much doub’t that a SS is in every case. Maybe 1:2, 2:3 or something like that?

This is part of UD’s smoke and mirrors with absolute print runs.

We might have better luck on the /249 rainbow sparkle dance parallels, but there again, we are looking at a maximum Hobby box print run of 62,250 (1:box), and a case print run of 3112. We run into the same ‘compared to the cup’ problem; a 1:box insertion of the /249 parallels gives a total case print run of just under what The Cup does.

If we assume 1:case for the /249, we get a total case run of 62,250 which is only 41.67% of what I had originally estimated the original print run of Hobby to be... It gets even worse if you allow some of the /25 and /249 to get into the ePack (and other) streams. The odds just fall of the table.

I will be watching case-break videos out of interest. My tinfoil hat is starting to warm up.

[Rraincock]

Your math looks correct to me, at least at first glance. I want to bring up this above point.

If you look at past releases, when UD uses "groups", that assumption is pretty much categorically incorrect. There are almost always SPs within all groups.... but "SP" is relative to that group.

You came up with a print run of roughly 65.39, for each of the 4 Group A autos.... meaning there is approximately 261.56 total Group A autos out there. I'll bet your number is pretty close to accurate for the total, but I'll bet that at least one (if not all) of the cards have a different print run.

They do it on purpose, so you don't know how many copies of each are out there.

Last UD auto set I tried to build.... there were Groups A through G:

- Some A's harder to find than otheres
- There were B's harder to find than at least one A
- There were C's harder to find than some Bs
- There were a couple of D's harder to find than a couple of Cs
- Both E & F had cards that were more like a "common" D to find
- Even G had some cards tougher to find than Es and Fs.


The insertion ratio is correct, and your math for the total number in a particular group is correct.... let's say there are ACTUALLY 262 total Group A autos. There could very well be 100 copies of two of them, 50 copies of the 3rd, and only 12 of the 4th..... and UD will NOT tell you that.

I am conflicted. I have noticed the issue of SP cards within a Group (especially in UD 1 & 2 Jerseys). Yet at the same time, why would UD make a Group B card as rare as a Group A when they could have just made it a Group A to begin with? If that is the case, then the group names are arbitrary and the relative print runs of all the cards in a group (compared to the average) would be random.

Hmmmmm.... I wonder if some cards are shifted into other pack streams... or even if some are held back for an unknown McWilliamsy reason.

Inconcievable.