Is the party over?

[scarrman]

Sorry, lame title, but it seems like overall selling prices look to be coming back down quickly. We all know they blew up through the pandemic, held strong even early this year, but things have changed and it looks like it turned from the sellers market back to a buyers market.

Can it be as obvious as the COVID bubble popped, did we all run out of money, are people in general unsure about the economy and holding on to their money, did the hockey love go away, is it a reflection of the overproduction and long delays from Upper Deck that we are finally tired of? Or maybe it's just the end of summer and when hockey starts up again the market will rebound?

Just curious what others think. I sat on the sidelines forever waiting to finally start selling cards, jumped in this year, started out well, but feels like everything died off.

[doniceage]

I still think it a seller market. I think a lot of it is the higher end and more graded than ungraded imo. I still bid on a ton and I still lose a lot but I have seen the lower end stuff start to come down back in prices which is a good thing. I mean if you look at boxes and such they are still going for crazy prices. The newer retail has cooled off as only a few select products are snagged off the shelf soon as it it stocked. While as you said a few years ago the whole shelf would be bare no matter what the product was.

DON

[RGM81]

Higher-end stuff remains crazy high, which is great if that's the market you're dealing with.

For a lot of long-time collectors (in contrast with the new 'investors' who joined during the pandemic), there have been a lot of reasons they've slowed down:

1. The cost breaking product is increasingly inaccessible. You're often paying more for less. 2020-21 SP Authentic is currently $350+ a box. You get 1 FWA guaranteed per box now. I'm old enough to remember it at $150 and you get 2 FWA's + usually a 3rd auto.
2. Product delays have hurt a ton. With 2022-23 MVP coming out last week, UD currently has three different years of releases hitting the market: 2020-21, 2021-22 and now 2022-23. Lafreniere's Cup rookie won't be out on the market until he's well into his 3rd NHL season. Look how many of the rookies from that year have seen a change of scenery, plateau'd, or busted.
3. With the overall cost of living increases, coupled with 1&2, the natural inclination is to go to eBay/COMC/etc., and just get the singles you want. Well, sorry, but if less people are busting wax, and the price has gone up, those costs are getting passed along to you anyways. Polarization, bigly.

I think we will see an adjustment period in the months ahead. Will be interesting to see how UD manages to get back ahead of its schedule. I know they're working diligently to do just that, but it's tough when there are so many external factors at play.

[pwaldo]

did we all run out of money, are people in general unsure about the economy and holding on to their money

I don't know about Canada but in the United States the economy has been getting wrecked for awhile now. Stock market crashing, NFTs going bust, crypo market floundering. Gas and energy prices sky high. Cost of food, cars, and medicine hitting all time highs. And it is just going to get worse. Companies are either laying people off now or are waiting until after the election in November. It is going to be worse this winter because unless you have fantastic Black Friday and Christmas sales a lot of business are going to go under. Interest rates are expected to climb well into next year. I'm not seeing any good signs on the US economy and outside of the media doing a blackout on the poor results and the White House lying and saying there is no recession there is nothing being said by experts that is positive or to be hopeful about.

So when you have people and families unable to buy groceries or gasoline for their vehicles I'm not shocked by the low sales of hobby cards. And when people have to choose between paying a heating bill this winter or buying a rookie card I think we know that everyone is going to be picking the heating bill. So sadly I don't see this getting better anytime soon.

[icefields]

it is amazing to me that when the country (yours and ours) is going to h*ll people continue to support an obviously corrupt government.
justine turd-o won re-election last fall. we have another 4 more years of that &#%%%*@!! running our country.
at least more of the states have tolerable winters then us up here.
its scary when food and heat bills are greater than the mortgage payment
and dont forget the bugs they are gonna try to fool us with.
THEY ARE ALREADY ADVERTISING DOG FOOD MADE OUTTA BUGS.
i was born at nite but not last nite

[mooneyes]

Hard to say.

Hockey cards are an obvious non-essential, but...they are also a much needed happy distraction, which is very helpful for my mental health.

Who knows, if the world goes to heck maybe I will start a Phil Kessel game used collection or a 1st rd rookie bust pc. I will slow down but probably never quit.

[cjb]

Wonder if Fanatics is rethinking about their investment?

As long as UD is charging $120-140 for a hobby box of S1+2+E, as long as they're charging $350 for SPA, as long as they're charging $189 for Artifacts, the market has not officialy cooled down.

[pwaldo]

Wonder if Fanatics is rethinking about their investment?

Have you seen the debacle they had with 2022 Topps Chrome Baseball? Clearly they aren't happy about the current market and they are hoping it rebounds quickly (it won't).

[piper1]

it is amazing to me that when the country (yours and ours) is going to h*ll people continue to support an obviously corrupt government.
justine turd-o won re-election last fall. we have another 4 more years of that &#%%%*@!! running our country.
at least more of the states have tolerable winters then us up here.
its scary when food and heat bills are greater than the mortgage payment
and dont forget the bugs they are gonna try to fool us with.
THEY ARE ALREADY ADVERTISING DOG FOOD MADE OUTTA BUGS.
i was born at nite but not last nite

Some of us lived and worked through this over 40 years ago. I tried to warn everyone that Junior was an idiot which was going to be even worse for this country, but no one wanted to listen. Much of the damage will be irreversible this time and, if you think it is bad right now, wait until the Ontario rolling blackouts start in a couple of years.

Having said that I think the Hobby and the Sports will survive as everyone still needs both a pastime and a distraction from the aforementioned disaster. The one industry that is likely permanently damaged is tourism.

[cjb]

but he's so good looking and charismatic. I'm voting for him again because he's cool!