Smitty's Guide to Buying Retail

[thesmith00]

Admit it. It's ok, everybody does it. What is it? Buying retail cards. Boxes, packs, whatever. We know it drastically reduces your chances of a hit, but we always go back to Wal-Mart or Target or wherever. For some reason, we feel as though today is the day we pull that sick auto. But it never comes for 99% of us. Buying retail is fine, so long as you know what you're getting and what to look for. Getting value out of retail is what's really important. I hope this guide helps you out with regards to buying retail, so that weekly trip to Target doesn't always have to end in dissapointment.

Rule 1- Know your chances!

The most important thing about retail boxes is what's on the back. The hit ratios are the single greatest asset you can have. Use math to your advantage. It's like pot odds in poker. Figure out by how many packs you have in the box what your chance is of getting a hit. And you can then figure out, how much money you will spend on the box (retail is usually $10 or $20) and what kind of value you could realistically get on the box. For more on that, check out Mikes guide to the WPB theory.

Rule 2- You almost never get hits from Topps!

Especially from retail, Topps boxes are generally full of crap. There are some, like Bazooka, that actually guarantee a hit in every box. Those are the boxes you should give your attention to. Also, boxes like Throwback Threads, guarantee a blue proof #'d parallel, and they also only cost $10. Look at the relationship between 1. The number of packs vs hit ratio
2. The number of packs vs cost of box
Many Upper Deck boxes guarantee a gu, but they're generally $20 rather than 10. If you can find a UD box for 10, get it. But for my money I'd get a Donruss box. Just keep the relationships in mind and you should be ok.

Rule 3- Boxes are ALWAYS SEARCHED!

It's a sad fact, and a frowned upon practice, but to be realistic, all boxes are searched. The only time you'd get an equal chance at a hit from a loose pack is if the box is new. You have a chance if more than 2/3 of the box is still there. One thing that does help is if you drive to the retail store every day for about a week, you can catch the rotation cycle of the fresh boxes. I almost never buy retail packs, the only way you can truely be sure is to buy the sealed boxes. Or buy a bunch of packs from the fresh box. For loose packs I would always buy hobby.

Rule 4- Mixed boxes are your friend!

It may come as a surprise, but mixed boxes yield more than single-product boxes on average, because the mixed packs are, more often than not, hobby. Retail packs will almost never get hits, but you have a shot with hobby packs. Plus, you can get 12 mixed packs for 10.99 at your local Wal-Mart.

That's all I have for now. If I ever have another addition I'll post an update. Thanks, and I hoped it helped.


-Smitty

[meuandthelot]

More good info. Smitty!

First making collectors aware of the different boxes, and what to expect-
Hobby, Jumbo, HTA & Retail