Has Certified hit the Fiscal Cliff?

[sedinfan]

In the past two years, when a parallel-heavy set like Certified hit the market, I've used up most of my ebay watch list tracking dozens of Sedin cards from the new release... this year it seems almost as if no wax has been broken - there are a grand total of 7 Sedin 2012-13 Certified cards on the 'bay right now (there are actually far more from the previous two years than the current year).

At least for my PC guys, I saw a large amount of Superlative singles hit the market, a decent number of UD I (though somewhat less than previous years), but nearly a complete absense of Certified - while it seems the lockout has had an impact across the hobby in general, Certified especially seems to have fallen off the cliff this season - are other folks seeing that too? Do you think we're just seeing a lull until the lockout is resolved, or have we finally hit the wall where 22 licensed releases per year is just too much, and are we going to see collectors focus only on breaking ITG (for the ITG fans), and say OPC/UD/SPA/Cup?

We've of course had numerous threads with folks bemoaning average box breaks returning little in the way of secondary market value for the past couple of years, but till now there's always been enough folks willing to bust boxes and try their luck. So I'm curious, have you broken Certified in the past, and decided not to this year - if so why? Is it a temporary thing cause of the lockout... or are you not impressed with the design / player selection / subsets in this year's edition... cutting back to the traditional hobby staples due to product fatigue (22 licensed releases per year)... or a combination thereof / something else entirely?

[jonpop]

Certified is 40$ more than a box of UD Series 1 here. And let's be realistic, this product is garbage and has nothing to do with collectors wallets. People that collect hockey are chewing up 500$ boxes of Topps Five Star.

[RGM81]

I think it's part of an overall beat-down on the box/case-breakers' wallets for the past few months. Consider all the products that have come out since, say, August:
Panini Prime
UD Ultimate Collection
Panini Dominion
UD The Cup
ITG Forever Rivals
UD Artifacts
UD O-Pee-Chee
Panini Score
ITG Superlative III
UD Series 1
Panini Certified

There are a lot of high-end products on that list, and there's virtually no recovery time for people who have been breaking product to recoup their costs to load up on the newer releases. Even UD1 seems to have fewer breaks than in the past. The lockout no doubt plays a role, as it's severely restricted the number of rookies available to be used, but 11 products in such a short period of time, especially given the price tag on a few of them with so little return in some cases, is just an overload on people. Something had to suffer, and it looks like Certified may be one of those products hurting the most.

[Estovia]

Major Factors -

As RGM pointed out, there flurry of high cost products to hit the market has all but the luckiest/richest folks strapped at the moment.

Also, indirectly related to the lockout, is the lack of star rookies in boxes. The price of certified hasn't changed, but there's no Yakupov or Murray or surprise calder candidates to chase.. and yes they may pack them as random rc redemptions (like Artifacts) and promise them at a later date, but I can think of very few people who buy boxes hoping for as many redemptions as possible so they can sit on the shelf.

[Vancollects25]

I think most of this years products will hit a fiscal cliff. Many collectors who bust wax, especially on a regular basis, try to hit the big rookies. However, there are none of the big names from the draft in this year's sets due to the lockout. I also agree that 22 licensed releases are also far too many for collectors. If there were half of that varying from low to high-end I could see there being less of an impact, but most collectors aren't made of money. I have focused on my Malhotra PC for the past year and have busted very few packs, but if I do bust any wax this season, it will probably be from a previous year.

[spg]

I buy a box or two of pretty much every new release, and I'm not going anywhere near Certified. My boxes last year were super underwhelming, the rookie situation is rough, resale seems low compared to comparable products, and it has sticker autos.

Even with all of this I'd probably still bust a box, but the biggest problem with Certified is the design. The die cuts and super shininess just seem lame to me, and not appealing visually at all. Totally gaudy and over the top, like a leather jacket with someone's name spelled out on the back with sequins or something.

Basically I'm skipping Certified because even if I pulled a nice card theoretically for my PC, I probably wouldn't even want to keep it.

[flopfish]

As SPG pointed out, Certified won and lost a few people this year. The design won over some, lost some others, and the value of the product just isn't the same in 2012/13 products, and personally in my opinion the value in a box went down slightly this year. From what I've noticed in 2011/12, you either got a card /25 or lower or a rookie, but in 2012/13 there seems to be more weak boxes as well. Also, since there is no rookie draw, a lot of people don't want to buy any 2012/13 product.

[neilnijjar]

with less and less being broken of each product (either due to lockout or too many products on the market) may we now see an increase in value for some stuff as it doesnt seem as if the market is flooded with multiple copies

I know I have noticed this with some of the new release stuff for Marleau stuff - stuff I could pick up for a buck or two is now going for 5-7 and same with stuff that is usually 10 now going for more

Neil

[dafoefan34]

Agreed, it certainly appears that Certified is being lightly opened this year. I consider myself as one of the collectors who traditionally liked Certified, but I will be passing on this years release. That is coming from somebody that opened 96-97 and 97-98 as well as Totally Certified.

Maybe it is the geometric design or the fact that the Mirror parallels were more subtle in years past. Call me strange, but I liked the parallels of the base with jerseys and I think that is a key reason why I won't be buying this years product. This year, all of the jerseys are subsets. I've never been a big fan of the Fabirc of the Game cards, they didn't really captivate my attention and they always felt out of place in Certified. Also, I'm not a big fan of the Path to the Cup Playoff jersey set, it looks too busy for me but that would be a challenging set to build and frame. For a set that built its name on Parallels, this is years release is going in a different direction.

I think the lockout and collector fatigue is also a major factor.

[ronfir]

Our local got in a case and in the first pack I hit a nice dual stick card. Ended up buying all the packs in the box and then a tried one more box. After that, I said enough. The hits seem pretty lame for the price and the design is getting very old and I hit that if you touch the card you get finger prints all over it. On top of that with no big rookies, why waste the money?

Needless to say after my purchase I said enough for 2012-13 on Certified for me. I must not be the only collector at our local who thought this because very few boxes have been sold at the local.

Time to move on to something else for me.