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Thread: The Future of the Hobby

  1. #1

    The Future of the Hobby

    I would like to get various opinions on how everyone feels on the future of the hobby. Who will be worth money 10 years from now for each draft class 1998-2012. Many flash in the pan players come and go but, who will sustain. Even a successful career does not guarantee hobby love. With mass production of autos and patches in various sets the market is diluted. Many sets look very nice, but will cards be sustain value in the future. From my view, it seem a few players from each draft class hold value and increase over the years while the others fade away. Post your opinions on this subject if you could -

  2. #2
    i agree with you that only a select few guys will hold value and maybe increase, guys like manning and moss from 98 sell very well and i think that will be true with the likes of adrian peterson calvin johnson and a few qb's like luck and maybe ryan or flacco depending on who wins super bowls. for the most part though you are correct and only a couple from each draft keep value over the years. i find this to be an interesting conversation so im going to break it down from 1998. please throw some names in if i miss someone.

    98 - moss, manning
    99 - none? mcnabb maybe.
    00 - brady
    01 - tomlinson
    02 - ed reed
    03 - andre johnson, polamalu
    04 - eli manning, roethlisberger, fitzgerald
    05 - aaron rodgers, d ware
    06 - anyone??
    07 - adrian peterson, calvin johnson
    08 - flacco, matt ryan,

    this is just guess work really and im sure ive missed plenty of guys that still sell well. im just trying to think of guys thats cards still hold considerable value. ofcourse it could all change given some super bowl rings.

    i still think its to early to tell on guys like sam bradford, cam newton, luck rg3 etc.

  3. #3
    just to clarify i dont think its fair to judge cards earlier than 98 in this conversation since 98 was when on card autos first started to appear in quantity

  4. #4
    Man it is weird to see nobody emerge from that 1999 draft class given that there was so much hype at the time. It was hyped as bigger and badder than the 1998 draft which was one of the better draft years at the time for the NFL.
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  5. #5
    some solid players came out in '99, edgerrin james had an excellent career and ricky williams even had some good years. torry holt was far from a scrub to but in terms of card values their autos can be had fairly cheap.

  6. #6
    Great thread, and I do agree with most of the points stated. A few of the guys that sell well, and will continue to, that have been missed are

    1999 - Kurt Warner
    2001 - Drew Brees, Reggie Wayne (he doesn't sell extremely well, but his rookie stuff does and he is a lock for the HOF)
    2003 - Jason Witten (I almost put Romo on this list becuase he will certainly retire with most of the Cowboys passing records and Cowboys stuff always sells well, but no doubt he will go down as a goat, unless he puts together a remarkable playoff run in the next year or 2, if he actually wins a SB his cards would be crazy valuable {I know, I chuckled when I wrote it}).

    I try to make it a point in my PC to have an AUTO RC of all the guys that seem to be HOF locks, and some of my favorites that are cheaper, but guys i enjoy(ed) watching (i.e. Ricky Williams, Roddy White, etc.). The main reason is because I love collecting cards of players I like and know should maintain at least a semblance of value, but a little part of me likes to know that if I ever got in a spot where i needed some cash I have some reserves in terms of my hobby:D:
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  7. #7
    i completely forgot about warner maybe because he didnt come into the nfl the same way guys like mcnabb did but i do agree there. not sure how i forgot about brees either but another good one and i almost put reggie wayne on there originally.

    it seems like the only players who's values are maintained are hall of fame type players and pretty much everyone else burns out over time.

    to me it is a hobby that i spend extra cash on when i can and in no way am i planning on making profit from it. there are better investments out there, if you want to maintain or make money sports cards will let you down 99% of the time.

  8. #8
    2006 had Maurice Jones-Drew. He has shown he has great potential. If he were on a contender, and regular playoff team, his cards would likely sell higher. If he could land on a team that makes it to the Super Bowl or playoffs and if he could add up the yards and what not, he'd be a memorable name for a few years at least.

    I always enjoy watching the most hyped college players flop. It's not fun, and it's not good for them, but usually it's the lesser known players that make a name for themselves in the league.
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  9. #9
    Well current card values i think everyones covered. My worry for the future of the hobby is whether or not there will be one in 20+ years. Right now most collectors started collecting when we were kids and we could walk into a store and buy packs of cards that held the possibility for pulling the best, hottest cards of the year. Now kids can't do that. the most sought after, valuable cards come from packs that cost $300+ and that is causing ALOT of kids to not care about cards. Then you add in computers, video games and other hobbies and there may not be much of a market for cards once the kids born before 2005 ( or whenever the first "high-end" sets were released) start getting old and dying off.
    Greed turn cards from a mostly kids only hobby to a more adult hobby and then that greed brought us these "high-end" sets and that has removed almost all chance for kids to have a chance at pulling anything but what most would consider crap or second tier cards. I know when I first started collecting part of the thrill besides pulling my favorite players was also the chance to pull the most sought after and valuable card/s of the year. When I bought a pack I had just as much of a chance at pulling the top rookies best card as the 40 year old guy next to me at the store. I had the same chance of pulling the most desired inserts and hitting the 1 in 1000 pack auto as the adults.
    Now kids can buy packs and even boxes but when they can only afford stuff like Score and Topps and at best Chrome and Contenders, while the most sought after cards are in NT and 5-Star it completely takes alot of the thrill out of it for kids. Even the base cards in the high-end sets are alot nicer than those the kids can get of their favorite players in score.

    Finally rookie cards aren't what tey once were either. Way back in the day a player had 1 maybe 2 cards their rookie year. Then it became 5 and maybe 10. Now, well most of the cards produced in a players rookie year aren;t ever "true" rookies and the fact we have a term like "true" to describe a rookie is bad enough. So on top of not having a chance to get the best cards, kids are also confused at heck. A kids opens a pack and pulls a card that has a rookies picture they think they got that players rookie card but no it could be an insert or a parallel and then depending on what company it may not even be a licensed product so even the base wont count as a true rookie.
    The hobby is not what it used to be and becoming less and less interesting and esirable for kids. Eventually that decreasing interest is gonna lead from a decreased market to a non-existent market. Maybe once that happens all the big money hungry comapnies will leave and we will go back to 1 company producing basic cards for the very few people interested and they will have isane odds at pulling something like an auto or jersey/patch card.
    Unless the companies abandon the high-end crap and go back to the basics I don;t see a long-tern future for the hobby. Kids are the future of this hobby and while some here may have their kids interested in it, its far less than it was when I was a kid and eventually the decreasing numbers WILL hit a point to where its next to noone interested in this hobby. Maybe not in the next 2 years but 50-100 years from now, unless things change drastically, I don't see the hobby making it that far.
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  10. #10
    Alfred Morris has very few rookie autos so his price will probably stay high for a while as long as he keeps performing. And he is a flat out beast.

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