A Man(ning) On a Mission

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A Man(ning) On a Mission
By Drew Pelto AKA *censored*

When I look at the 2016 incarnation of the Denver Broncos, I am reminded of Bill Simmons’ 2004 description of a legend. A legend who was known for his once-powerful right arm, who displayed great thinking on his decisions on throws, who has initials of PM, who would go on to battle injuries that altered his career, and who at the time was hunting for a championship.

That man was Pedro Martinez. This article is not about him.

If this were a Hollywood movie, he would have gone out guns blazing,
the old Pedro one last time—cracking 97 on the gun, mixing four
unhittable pitches and throwing at people's heads just for the sport of it.
But that Pedro has been gone for a while. The older version creaks along
and dances in and out of trouble, a constant tightrope walk, as nothing
ever seems to come easy anymore.
– (ESPN Page 2, The Surreal Life at Fenway, 10/19/04)

Like Pedro, Peyton Manning in 2016 is not the Peyton Manning I watched carve up the Detroit Lions like a turkey on Thanksgiving in 2004, when he completed 82% of his passes for six touchdowns—three each to Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokely as the Colts took home a 41-9 victory. A 2016 Manning is walking Pedro’s tightrope, completing fewer than 60% of his passes for the first time since his rookie season, and throwing only nine touchdowns to 17 interceptions. Watching him against my Browns in October was not the way I want to remember the legend. The Browns’ weak defense managed to pick him off three times including a Karlos Dansby pick-six to take a fourth quarter lead before Brandon McManus bailed Manning out in overtime. A 2016 Peyton Manning is the best offensive thinker on the field, perhaps in the entire league, but he no longer has the same ability to go with it.

Pedro picked apart the strike zone, Peyton picks apart zone defenses

And this is exactly why I believe Manning, six weeks shy of his 40^th birthday, will come out on top in Super Bowl 50.

Although Manning no longer has those previous abilities, he was able to do enough to beat the vaunted New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. We didn’t see the nearly ten yards per pass attempt that Manning had in five previous playoff victories, including the last time he outdueled Tom Brady in January. His 176 passing yards were the second lowest in a playoff victory in his career, barely surpassing a 2007 win in Baltimore en route to his lone Super Bowl victory. The biggest, most telling aspect of this is that Peyton Manning understands his physical limitations and throughout this season he has learned not to attempt to surpass them.

Manning struggled to come to terms with it earlier this season, much like another former Broncos quarterback, John Elway, did in 1998. In Elway’s final season, he threw for 2800 yards (one of only four seasons under 3000 in his career), struggled with a playoff completion percentage hovering around the low fifties, and ran for only 94 yards, which was tied for the lowest in his career. But Elway and the Broncos coaches realized he was nearing the end, thus planning their offense primarily around Terrell Davis who ran for 2000 yards and a Super Bowl MVP.

Not likely coming to a #18 jersey in a Super Bowl near you

The Broncos don’t have that same ground pounder, splitting time between Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson to the tune of 1500 yards, but what they do have are the minds of three quarterbacks—Manning, team president Elway, and head coach Gary Kubiak—and an offensive coordinator who was once a linebacker, so he understands offense through the eyes of what the defense sees and can plan effectively around that. What Manning may lack in ability at this point in his career he and his team make up for it in wisdom and experience.

Besides, the AFC Championship proved the whole cliché about defense winning championships. Wade Phillips drew up some incredible coverage schemes, bringing pressure without over-committing blitzes against which Tom Brady could easily audible, and Brady and the New England offensive line struggled to adjust. As much of a freak athlete as Cam Newton is, I’m sure they can draw up something similar to bring as much confusion as they can to a young quarterback playing in his biggest game since the 2011 BCS Title Game where his Auburn Tigers had to be bailed out by a last-second field goal.

The Broncos—and especially Manning himself—want to go out and get one final championship before he joins the Browns as Quarterback Yoda to tutor Carson Wentz or Jared Goff before moving into the front office as General Manager in 2017 (you laugh now, but just watch; he and Jimmy Haslam are buddies). The Panthers certainly want to cap off their near-perfect season, but they don’t have the desperation aspect—they are set up to be a powerhouse for several more years. If they don’t get it now, they will pretty soon. The desperation aspect can help teams. Baltimore went into XLVII as four point underdogs and won for Ray Lewis, the Saints were five point underdogs and won XLIV as the final rebound from Hurricane Katrina, and the Giants were whopping twelve point underdogs in XLII and spoiled New England’s bid for a 19-0 season. In five of the last seven Super Bowls (not counting last year’s New England-Seattle matchup where the line was a straight pick) the underdog has not only been the betting winner via the spread, but has won outright. Odds a week output Carolina in the driver’s seat by about six points.

I’m not ready to crown them with certainty yet, but I would certainly put a few dollars on it: your Super Bowl 50 champion will be the Denver Broncos.

About the Author: Drew Pelto’s childhood in Painesville, OH was ruined by John Elway, so it is incredibly hard for him to pick the Broncos in anything other than a poll of Teams You’d Most Like To See Run Over By A Truck, where they would rank behind Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and maybe New England, and his support of the Broncos has likely thus jinxed them. He lives in Arlington, TX with his wife, two cats, and a degree in journalism that he only uses on SCF.

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*crickets*

[hooters517]

Nice prediction! I hope he does retire, or he will have an awful season next year. He was so great, watching him throw, but he just doesn't have it anymore.