BGS Grading Averages (chart included) for Young Gun Rookies

[jcharles66]

Thought you might find this interesting . . . I recently had a few Young Guns graded and became curious about the percentage of cards graded at various levels. I took 6 of the more popular graded players and created a little chart below based on the Beckett Pop report. I left out anything under a 7. The odds are a little misleading because I think on average, people only send in high quality cards. So, of all the cards sent in, there's about a 5% chance of getting a 10 on a more recent Young Guns. Obviously the odds change dramatically depending on the card (e.g. UD Canvas cards have a high "10" %).

Interesting that Kane has no 10s :)

	BGS GRADE
Young Guns	7	7.5	8	8.5	9	9.5	10	Total*
Auston Matthews	3	7	15	29	227	1296	131	1,708
Connor McDavid	2	9	20	80	599	4057	350	5,117
Sidney Crosby	7	8	25	77	544	1615	106	2,382
Jack Eichel	2	9	7	23	179	1152	105	1,477
Alex Ovechkin	11	10	52	158	560	1389	51	2,231
Patrick Kane	1	4	9	72	387	365	0	838
Total	26	47	128	439	2,496	9,874	743	13,753
%	0.19%	0.34%	0.93%	3.19%	18.15%	71.80%	5.40%	100.00%

* Total doesn't include anything under a 7 grade.

[SportsCardCollective]

Yeah Kane's year was a hard year!
always nice to see posts like this..

thanks for taking the time to do the mathematical breakdown

[Taxi]

Definitely people only send in high quality cards for the most part. If collectors are just blindly sending in cards without inspecting them first, they are doing something wrong. I'm surprised the Matthews YGs are being graded so high though, as there are major centering issues there.

[jcharles66]

@CanadianCards no problem! @Taxi, I agree on the Matthews YG. When I sent mine in I estimated it would grade a 9 and forgot to put a min grade on the form. Got it back at a 9.5 which surprised me a bit. But, the opposite is true on a few other cards I sent so it's just part of the process I guess.

[pwaldo]

Thanks for the info and the chart! Very interesting numbers there.

[kovyheater]

Seems it has gotten easier to get a BGS 10 over the years....I have definitely seen more 10s then ever before and I can't imagine how much better the production process has improved to yield such pristine quality....

[gomaz]

Would be interesting to see Toews and Price added to the chart as they are also from the tough 2007-08 year and are key Young Guns. Any chance you can add them?

[pigskinpete]

you should do the breakdown of regular YGs compaired to canvas grades. I agree that the canvas tends to average better grades

[jcharles66]

@pigskinpete @gomaz it might be a day or so but I'll add Canvas and Toews. @kovyheater I wonder if that's why we sometimes see BGS 9 cards go for less than raw cards. That might speak to the expectation that cards are now generally going to be more pristine out of the pack. I've seen this several times with some of the more recent rookies.

[kovyheater]

Not to be too negative here, but there may also be a bit of quality erosion over the years with BGS. And I don't think this is specific to BGS as PSA is also notorious for this as well.

I know some on here argue the validity of third-party grading and sometimes I can see where they are coming from.