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10-16-2017, 12:18 AM #1
SP Authentic Gold Spectrum /50
Help required....
I'm trying to understand what may be the current values of these cards. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall reading somewhere that there may be approximately 200 of the Silver Spectrum cards produced...maybe more??? Anyone have an idea on that?
Is it too simple to state that if that were true then the /50 Golds would be 4X the book value?
I really like the look of the Gold Spectrum cards....but want to make sure I'm not blind to the "value".
For example....the Matthews Silver Spectrum has a BV of $250US. I've seen the /50 Gold go for anywhere from $400US to $800US. That's a pretty big spread...
Any thoughts? Thanks!!
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10-16-2017, 01:09 AM #2
I don't think UD has disclosed the print run on the Silver Spectrum cards. There are likely more than just the 200 suggested though. Have to imagine that lots of people have them with no intent to pursue the whole set for the Bounty program.
And yeah it's probably not just a simple 4x multiplier. With those chase sets the only way they can get a real idea of value is the market, and not many people are breaking up their limited sets.
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10-16-2017, 11:43 AM #3
I believe the Level 3 Future Watch Silver Spectrums were rumored to be less than 200 for what that's worth.
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10-17-2017, 02:54 AM #4
I suppose that number (under 200) is quite possible when you look at where Beckett has priced their BV's (assuming they have some insight!):
Marner Silver $200 vs. Marner SOTT /199 $150
Laine Silver $200 vs. Laine SOTT /99 $200
Nylander Silver $150 vs. Nylander SOTT /99 $200, Nylander FWAP /100 $200
Werenski Silver $100 vs. Werenski FWAP /100 $120
Vesey Silver $100 vs. Vesey FWAP /100 $125
Mantha Silver $80 vs. Mantha FWAP /100 $100
This is a small sample size...but...can one use this to guess at print runs?
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10-17-2017, 11:47 AM #5
200 is a fairly good guess for the Silver Spectrums based on odds and approximate case counts
Approximately 2250 Master cases is the number I came up with. Give or take a few % points.
Base - 1 in 18 Packs (40)
Level 1 - 1 in 36 Packs (30)
Level 2 - 1 in 90 Packs (20)
Level 3 - 1 in 360 Packs (9)
2250 cases = 36,000 Boxes = 648,000 Packs
Base - 648,000 / 18 Packs = 36,000 / 40 players = 900 Copies each
Level 1 Spectrums - 648,000 / 36 packs = 18,000 / 30 players = 600 Copies each
Level 2 Spectrums - 648,000 / 90 packs = 7200 / 20 players = 360 Copies each
Level 3 Spectrums - 648,000 / 360 packs = 1800 / 9 Players = 200 Copies each
And to further argue the 2250 Master cases.
Rarest card in the set
111 Auston Matthews "NHL Debut One for the Ages" A 1:129,600 Packs
648,000 / 129,600 Packs = 5 Copies of this card. I believe there's only been 2 or 3 on Ebay. So 5 isn't out of the realm of possibility.
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10-17-2017, 05:02 PM #6
Great analysis....thanks for that work!
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10-17-2017, 05:08 PM #7
The only thing this proves is that BVs have no real relevance in todays hobby.
"assuming they have some insight!" - As much insight as a drunk guy randomly throwing darts at a BV wheelLast edited by canucksfan007; 10-17-2017 at 05:11 PM.
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