The Official JAMEIS WINSTON Thread

[Jameis1of1]

Correct, it is truthful and accurate to state that Winston is the most statistically accomplished for his age. It means that his career has the trajectory towards high statistical achievement. He's got a massive head start over a lot of HoFers and future HoFers. If he continues as he does, he will break a ton of records.

Exactly and I have always stated the same. Some people who I won't "name", read the stats I post and then automatically freak out because they think I am stating that Jameis is the "best QB" to ever play over his first 4 years in the league, or that I'm stating he's the "best 24 year old QB" ever, etc., yet I have never claimed either of those things. To me, Otto Graham is the GOAT, Tom Brady is the GOTSBE, Dan Marino was the greatest "phenom" as well as the greatest pure passer, Michael Vick was the greatest pure athlete, Josh Allen is the most naturally gifted QB in the NFL right now, etc., etc., etc.,. However, just as I don't personally think Emmitt Smith is even close to Jim Brown or Barry Sanders, we all know Emmitt is the stat king and an immortal RB legend … and I believe Jameis is on that sort of pace and the data backs that up.

It's not worth getting all up in a tizzy trying to cut down Winston's accomplishments.

Exactly. I mean, I'm no Terrell Owens fan but I'm not about to pretend he's not one of the 3 most statistically accomplished WR's in NFL history as he clearly is. Truth is truth whether one likes it or not.

It's better to put them into context. Is statistical achievement at a certain age AS VALID as after a certain amount of seasons or a certain amount of attempts? I would argue the latter but in no way does it take away from the former.

I can absolutely appreciate your opinion. I may even agree with it in regards to how good a QB is, but I would strongly disagree in regards to being able to predict a QB's future stats. For example, I imagine Baker Mayfield will have far better stats through his first 32 or 48 or 64 or whatever starts, compared to Sam Darnold, BUT, as Darnold is a full 2+ YEARS younger than Mayfield, it's also absolutely possible that he'll be the one to retire with more career passing yards & TDs …

For me personally, I like speculating and investing a great deal of funds into players I personally believe will make it to the HOF, and "age" simply plays a very real part in those projections. Had Kobe Bryant been a 23 year old 5th year senior instead of a 17 year old high schooler when he entered the NBA Draft in 1996, I doubt I would have invested in him … same with LeBron years later, but investing in those two guys paid off handsomely for me and now I'm onto Jameis and loving it. I know a lot of people have a bad case of schadenfreude and want to see Jameis fail and even see me lose money, but that's just silly … I don't want any player to fail and I definitely don't want any collector/investor to lose money … this is a fun hobby/investment and can be fun for everyone!

[Jameis1of1]

Those who enjoy this thread, do be sure to check out my THREE posts from today above and not think this was my only post/reply :-)

However, just for fun, I thought I'd post the following from a little Twitter conversation I just had ... a fella wanted to troll Jameis and many times when one wants to troll Jameis, they just troll me instead as many people believe I'm part of Jameis' "inner circle" or a relative ... this fella admits Jameis is an elite talent and all but basically wanted to focus on only his "deep ball" and how he "sucks" at throwing the deep ball ... so ... I just went straight to comparing him to Brady, just for fun ... and here is what I found:

On passes over 41+ yards since JW entered NFL in 2015:

Tom Brady: 7-36 for 367 yards w/ 1 TD & 3 INTs = 44.1 passer rating

JW: 7-31 for 317 yards w/ 6 TDs & 4 INTs = 69.7 passer rating

The guy then said that 41+ yard throw stats are dumb and that he meant 20 yard throws … I mean, um, okay … so I did a little research and posted these:

On passes of 21-30 yards since 2016:

Jameis Winston: 26-66-706-11/2 = 106.4 passer rating

Tom Brady: 37-88-1,122-7/2 = 106.3 passer rating

Now, I obviously am NOT claiming that Jameis has been a "better QB" than Brady for the past 4 years, but I think the above two statistical comparisons certainly at least prove Jameis doesn't "suck" at throwing deep balls, whether that means 41+ yard throws or 21-30 yard throws. Twitter cracks me up.

[22emmittzone]

I don't hate your stats. Don't worry, I'll stay away and participate in threads where people are not called stupid, dumb, lacking the ability to comprehend, and all the other names you have to resort to in an attempt to belittle someone. And because I simply make an opposing point (which is the exact point that was made above), you have to resort to those tactics, but somehow don't do it with him as I called you out on it, so you are ensuring that you respond in a very professional manner now. Anyone can go back and look at the previous posts. I don't resort to name calling because there is no place for it on social media. Never have name called and never will unlike you. However, I am the one that is labeled as salty. lol

And yes, I am going to respond when someone who is using a keyboard that calls me out and doesn't even have the context of the entire conversation.

I've pointed out the skewed stats. Others have pointed them out, to include Jplcom recently. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and I can respect yours even if you can't accept my differing one. Since you asked "real nice like" for me to leave your thread, I will. But remember that I am not leaving because you overwhelmed me with stats like you often claim to do with people. It is simply because you asked and I would rather not participate in a thread that people can't have a professional conversation. Good luck!!!

[Rabs]

Those who enjoy this thread, do be sure to check out my THREE posts from today above and not think this was my only post/reply :-)

However, just for fun, I thought I'd post the following from a little Twitter conversation I just had ... a fella wanted to troll Jameis and many times when one wants to troll Jameis, they just troll me instead as many people believe I'm part of Jameis' "inner circle" or a relative ... this fella admits Jameis is an elite talent and all but basically wanted to focus on only his "deep ball" and how he "sucks" at throwing the deep ball ... so ... I just went straight to comparing him to Brady, just for fun ... and here is what I found:

On passes over 41+ yards since JW entered NFL in 2015:

Tom Brady: 7-36 for 367 yards w/ 1 TD & 3 INTs = 44.1 passer rating

JW: 7-31 for 317 yards w/ 6 TDs & 4 INTs = 69.7 passer rating

The guy then said that 41+ yard throw stats are dumb and that he meant 20 yard throws … I mean, um, okay … so I did a little research and posted these:

On passes of 21-30 yards since 2016:

Jameis Winston: 26-66-706-11/2 = 106.4 passer rating

Tom Brady: 37-88-1,122-7/2 = 106.3 passer rating

Now, I obviously am NOT claiming that Jameis has been a "better QB" than Brady for the past 4 years, but I think the above two statistical comparisons certainly at least prove Jameis doesn't "suck" at throwing deep balls, whether that means 41+ yard throws or 21-30 yard throws. Twitter cracks me up.

The majority of Brady's passes are checkdowns to RBs or crossing routes over the middle. It's amazing to me how wide open the Pats players are each and every game. They go so much YAC which obviously adds to Brady's yardage totals. I credit this more to the gameplan/coaching than I do to Brady. Every QB can make easy throws to open receivers, which he does all the time. Not trying to take away from what Brady has accomplished, but if you watch any Pats games you know exactly what I'm saying.

[jwlawrence06]

The majority of Brady's passes are checkdowns to RBs or crossing routes over the middle. It's amazing to me how wide open the Pats players are each and every game. They go so much YAC which obviously adds to Brady's yardage totals. I credit this more to the gameplan/coaching than I do to Brady. Every QB can make easy throws to open receivers, which he does all the time. Not trying to take away from what Brady has accomplished, but if you watch any Pats games you know exactly what I'm saying.

I'll agree with you for the most part, but to continue the trend of what this post has become, which is a statistical deep-dive, Brady put up one of the best statistical seasons ever for a QB in 2007, and then again in 2010 and 2016. Thus, there are a lot of variables that go into this such as what kind of passing game you can/want to have with the talent around you. With Moss on the team, of course you wanted to go more vertical. With Gronk/Hernandez/Welker, of course you wanted to throw down the seams...so the notion of Brady being a 'gameplan QB/game manager/check down QB' has been dismissed several times over. He can play the QB position in any style, and has done it over his entire career. I would say the real revelation is how he is one of the (if not THE) most smartest QB's ever; why chuck the ball down the field 20 times a game when you can pick apart defenses with 10-12 play drives? Only a select few QB's in the game can actually have the patience and discipline to do that game in and game out.

[jwlawrence06]

GREAT WORK sir. THAT is research I can appreciate as it took you some time. Now, as for your conclusions, I disagree with them and will explain why.

Firstly, please understand that I started making the claim that Jameis was the most statistically accomplished passer of his age in NFL history when he became #1 ALL-TIME in NFL HISTORY in both passing yards & passing TD's before the age of 24. This season has been a rough one for Jameis as he's only played in 6.5 of the teams first 13 games, and by the time this season ends I believe Jameis will probably be 2nd or 3rd all-time in passing yards by the age of 25 and 2nd all-time in passing TDs by the age of 25, so he won't be on as legendary a pace as he was going into this season, though he'll still easily be on a Hall of Fame pace, statistically speaking.

Secondly, I don't give that much credence to passer rating, at least not compared to QBR, as QBR is a truly comprehensive metric that puts the rather antiquated passer rating to shame … however, as QBR has only been around for 7 years, using passer rating is all one can do with the older QBs. Regardless, having a good O-Line and run game can greatly increase one's passer rating and Jameis has played behind a bad O-Line since he was drafted and with terrible run game support for all but his rookie year.

I honestly don't think there's a single person who appreciates stats that would value "passer rating" above QBR these days, and again, while Jameis' passer rating has gone down this season, he is 3rd in the entire NFL in QBR, behind only the top 2 MVP candidates, Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes, and that is quite amazing.

Thirdly, Jameis has played more "games" than most players of his same age in NFL history, however that doesn't "skew" the stats, it simply is what it is. I find it silly when people try to downplay statistical accomplishments of young players … back when I had a major financial investment in Kobe, I would post the same sort of "age-related stats" and people would freak out and say, "but, but, but, Kobe was 18 as a rookie and Jordan was 22" etc., but that was beside the point. I understood Kobe would never match Jordan's "per game" numbers as he did start as a mere teenager while Jordan was a man when he entered the league, but I also correctly predicted that Kobe would top Jordan's career points, assists and rebounds mark, in large part because he was so good, so young, and would be able to accumulate such stats … it's the same exact thing with Jameis Winston … he was good enough to be drafted #1 overall and handed the reigns to an NFL team at 21 years of age and that will help him compile career statistics that will likely blow most Hall of Fame QB's away.

Also, I find it interesting when people want to discount Jameis' stats because he started at a young age, but those same folks don't want to downgrade someone like Emmitt Smith's statistical accomplishments simply because he played 73 more career games than Barry Sanders and 108 more career games than Jim Brown … by the way, Emmitt was even younger than Jameis during his rookie year. Part of Emmitt's greatness was his longevity and the fact that he was able to start wracking up stats at such a young age, and there is a distinct possibility that by the time Jameis retires, he will be the all-time leader in passing yards and passing TDs and get into the HOF - just like Emmitt - but still never be considered in the class of Tom Brady or Otto Graham - just as Emmitt isn't considered in the same class as Jim Brown and Barry Sanders. And, I for one, will be A-OK with that. I am NOT a Buccaneers fan, nor a Seminoles fan and I root for a great many QBs in the NFL. Yes, I believe in Jameis' HOF future, but that doesn't mean I think he's the best QB in the NFL or even the best at any single aspect of QB'ing … I don't value "opinions", I value "data" and therefore I can appreciate your research.

Certainly agree with you on QB rating vs. QBR; I don't like QB rating that much either. However, even when you look at other numbers through 53 games, Winston isn't in the top-5 in any of them. If we look at completion % he's 29th

Jameis 3.png

Total yards he is 7th:

Jameis 4.png

TD's he is 18th:

Jameis 5.png

Yards per attempt he is 19th:

Jameis 6.png

And adjusted yards per attempt he is 22nd:

Jameis 7.png

So a few findings from the above: Based on the stats, compared to other QB's in NFL history who have played the same amount of games he has at this point, he is statistically around a top-25, maybe top-20 QB. So, my whole reason for joining this debate is to reveal how the original angle for analyzing his stats doesn't paint the whole picture of how his stats measure up to other QBs. However, even for him to be in the top-20 in some of theses stats in NFL history is certainly an accomplishment.

FYI: I'm not a Winston hater, I do data analysis for a living and love this stuff so I totally geeked out when I saw your numbers. Love a friendly debate on stats!

[Rabs]

Big test this weekend vs. the Ravens defense. Curious to see how he does.

[jplcom]

Based on the stats, compared to other QB's in NFL history who have played the same amount of games he has at this point, he is statistically around a top-25, maybe top-20 QB. So, my whole reason for joining this debate is to reveal how the original angle for analyzing his stats doesn't paint the whole picture of how his stats measure up to other QBs.

I think the important thing to remember on Jameis1of1 point is that where Winston is at for his age, the trajectory of his career as a high ceiling. If the NFL ended today, yeah Winston hasn't done much and his age is meaningless. If we are looking at the stats, most of the folks here are looking at it like this:

..............X
2015 - 2018 - 2021 - 2024 - 2027 - 2030 - 2033

Jameis1of1 is future casting based on present age and present statistical accomplishment:

.................................................. ....................X
2015 - 2018 - 2021 - 2024 - 2027 - 2030 - 2033

There is room for both to be correct when looking at it in their particular lens. Here's an example. In 1984 the general consensus was Montana was the superior QB to Marino. Some guy named Marino1of1 would write in to a newspaper columnist and say that for Marino's age he is most statically accomplished QB compared to others like Montana, Fouts, Anderson, etc and that he is putting up HoF numbers. Marino1of1 was looking at where things are now in '84 and to where the career trajectory would be in the year 2000 when making the claim and they would be arguing with someone named 34walterzone about it ;).

[Jameis1of1]

I don't hate your stats. Don't worry, I'll stay away and participate in threads where people are not called stupid, dumb, lacking the ability to comprehend, and all the other names you have to resort to in an attempt to belittle someone. And because I simply make an opposing point (which is the exact point that was made above), you have to resort to those tactics, but somehow don't do it with him as I called you out on it, so you are ensuring that you respond in a very professional manner now. Anyone can go back and look at the previous posts. I don't resort to name calling because there is no place for it on social media. Never have name called and never will unlike you. However, I am the one that is labeled as salty. lol

Again, I stand by 100% of my posts in this thread, including every single word I typed in reply to you … you're right, anyone can go back through this thread and read my comments and see which one of us acted more logical, sensible and professional … I have no problem with people doing that and encourage everyone to read every page of this thread as it's an amazing thread filled with a great deal of info they won't see elsewhere.

And yes, I am going to respond when someone who is using a keyboard that calls me out and doesn't even have the context of the entire conversation.

Riiiiiight, because getting the "last word" is more important than "keeping your word", eh? You crack me up. No one said anything about you that you need to freak out and defend yourself over … stop taking yourself so seriously and just go participate in threads you enjoy, created by members you like …

I've pointed out the skewed stats. Others have pointed them out, to include Jplcom recently.

None of them are "skewed", they merely are what they are. A "skewed stat" would be something like trying to make a claim QB X is more accurate than QB Y by only using 3rd quarter passing stats … specifically stating that a stat is based on age and then posting said stat is not even close to using a "skewed stat" … if people don't understand this, that's fine … it doesn't bother me … it is what it is.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and I can respect yours even if you can't accept my differing one.

You still don't get it. I do NOT value mere "opinions", even my own. I value hard data … and when one has a problem with hard data I lose respect for that person. That is just the way I am and I like myself, so I'm not about to change, even if doing so means I may be able to get along better with someone like you. You are free to hold whatever mere "opinion" you want, just don't expect me to treat your mere "opinion" as a statistical fact, or to value it over a statistical fact that proves your mere opinion to be flawed.

Since you asked "real nice like" for me to leave your thread, I will. But remember that I am not leaving because you overwhelmed me with stats like you often claim to do with people. It is simply because you asked and I would rather not participate in a thread that people can't have a professional conversation. Good luck!!!

I don't care who reads, replies, leaves, doesn't read, etc., this thread … I created it for fun and have fun with it and many enjoy it as evidenced by it's insane 13,000+ views … I just found it hilarious that you, of your own volition, stated multiple times you would leave the thread and then kept coming back … I value my word … but to each his own.

[Jameis1of1]

The majority of Brady's passes are checkdowns to RBs or crossing routes over the middle. It's amazing to me how wide open the Pats players are each and every game. They go so much YAC which obviously adds to Brady's yardage totals. I credit this more to the gameplan/coaching than I do to Brady. Every QB can make easy throws to open receivers, which he does all the time. Not trying to take away from what Brady has accomplished, but if you watch any Pats games you know exactly what I'm saying.

I love watching the Patriots play and have "evolved" into a Brady fan … but you are 100% correct as well.

I'll agree with you for the most part, but to continue the trend of what this post has become, which is a statistical deep-dive, Brady put up one of the best statistical seasons ever for a QB in 2007, and then again in 2010 and 2016. Thus, there are a lot of variables that go into this such as what kind of passing game you can/want to have with the talent around you. With Moss on the team, of course you wanted to go more vertical. With Gronk/Hernandez/Welker, of course you wanted to throw down the seams...so the notion of Brady being a 'gameplan QB/game manager/check down QB' has been dismissed several times over. He can play the QB position in any style, and has done it over his entire career. I would say the real revelation is how he is one of the (if not THE) most smartest QB's ever; why chuck the ball down the field 20 times a game when you can pick apart defenses with 10-12 play drives? Only a select few QB's in the game can actually have the patience and discipline to do that game in and game out.

I don't disagree with the above. I do believe Brady was a mere "game manager" when he was a young QB but that he developed into a true superstar and maintained that elite level over the years … I personally think Brady would relish the challenge to play in a truly vertical passing attack even if his stats suffered because of it … regardless I do definitely view Brady as the GOTSBE (Greatest of the Super Bowl Era), so whether he's dinking and dunking or throwing bombs, his place in history is secure.