The Official JAMEIS WINSTON Thread

[Jameis1of1]

I have nothing against Winston at all but I disagree with this statement. I think he can succeed in this league if he can manage the game. I don't see him having success as a gunslinger at all. Needs to be around a team that has solid D, solid run game, and pass 30 or less times a game to win. There aren't too many QBs lately that get into the Hall of Fame with losing records.

Jameis Winston career record 23-37

Career TDs (passing, rushing, etc) / Career turnovers (interceptions/fumbles lost)

109 TD Turnovers 89



Career record and Passing TD/INT stats when throwing 35+ times a game

record 8-26

TD 57 INT 55



Career record and Passing TD/INT stats when throwing 34 or less times a game

record 15-11

TD 43 INT 13

Thanks for the comment and I respect that you came with stats! Nice work!

However ... we will have to agree to disagree. While I absolutely agree with you that he (as well as every other QB in the entire NFL) needs either a solid run game, or far more importantly a solid defense to "win", I don't think any coach or GM in their right mind will ever view someone with Jameis' arm talent as a guy that should pass less than 30 times a game.

I appreciate your stats but I believe you are seeing something in them that isn't there, especially as I think you could create the exact same type of list with the same type of outcome for even the greatest gunslingers of all-time in NFL history.

What I mean by that, is that you seem to be assuming if he throws more than 30 times a game, he will always have to do so with the historically porous defense the Buccaneers have had for years, and that certainly doesn't have to be the case. If the Bucs had a top 10 defense, JW's "team win %" would be far better whether he threw 30+ times or not. However, I'm sure you're aware that JW has thrown the ball so much, because (a) the Bucs defense gets shredded game in and game out and he and the coaching staff feels he needs to lead the offense to 30+ points to even have a shot at winning the game, and (b) the Bucs have had one of the league's worst run games for the past 3 + years, so he is forced to pass a lot.

I would maintain that nearly ALL QBs, not just in the game today, but that have ever played, would struggle to have even a .500 win percentage when being required to throw 35+ times a game AND have one of the worst run games in the league AND have one of the worst defenses in the league. In fact, I imagine you could count on your hands the amount of QBs in the history of the NFL that have won in that way ... and you might only need one hand!

The above said, of course I believe JW would be infinitely more "efficient" and have an infinitely higher passer rating and QBR (both Raw and Total) if he played on a team like the Cowboys or Titans, as he'd be asked to take far less risks ... however ... I also don't believe any GM, if they had a "talent" like Jameis, is going to ever take the ball out of his hands and ask him to be a game-manager if he has even a "league average" run game and defense. Sure, if he just happens to get a top 5 defense mixed with a top 10 run game one day, a smart coach would certainly ask him to play far more safe and "manage" the game, but as long as he has a mere average or worse run game and defense, every coach is going to try and ride his right arm to victory.

Turnovers are extremely over-rated by the media ... the juxtaposition between Jameis and Marcus Mariota is proof positive of that. Mariota had ZERO turnovers on the year coming into today's game ... and he was benched and may never play for the Titans again (while Arians is as committed to Jameis as ever despite JW turning the ball over SIX times in a single game ala Brett Favre)!

Why?

Because all Mariota is, is a "play it safe" "game manager" and a guy without the arm talent to even give coaches the confidence that he could possibly "sling them to victory". No GM wants a QB like that ... they will make do with one as the Jags did with Bortles and the Bears are doing with Trubisky and they'll try to build a great run game and defense around him (which the Titans did for Mariota), but in the big-picture, every coach and GM wants a Hall of Fame level "talent" like Winston that can give them a shot to win games they have no business winning ... and those coaches and GMs will hope against hope that one day such a QB will also have a decent defense and run game around him so he doesn't "have to" sling the team to victory.

That's my two cents anyways ...

[Rabs]

Looking more and more like both Jameis and Mariota may be on new teams next year.

[jplcom]

Turnovers are extremely over-rated by the media ...

Since 1990 a QB has thrown 5+ interceptions in a game 40 times and only 2 times did their team win. A turnover or two might be overrated by the media but teams lose 95% of the time when this scenario happens which is not overrated. If you include the lost fumble, that has only happened 13 times since 1990 and no team has won giving the ball away 6 times in that fashion. Add in the 7 sacks, that has only happened once since 1950.

Having said all that, it’s unfair to hold a QB’s body of work based off of one game. Players like Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Eli Manning (twice), Joe Flacco, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre (twice), and Troy Aikman have all have 5-pick games on their resume.

the juxtaposition between Jameis and Marcus Mariota is proof positive of that. Mariota had ZERO turnovers on the year coming into today's game ... and he was benched and may never play for the Titans again

I'm curious about the comparisons between Mariota and Winston. Aside from them being drafted the same year, they are two vastly different QBs. Why is anyone comparing these two still? Seems silly to me. I've also said it before, it's way too early in their careers to judge their historical standings.

Final quick hit thoughts:

1. Patrick Mahomes is Favre 2.0 BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!

2. Montana > Marino 4ver

3. Brady will change the BOAT and GOAT titles into "Best/Greatest of all-time outside of Tom Brady" or GBOATOOTB12 (the G and second B are silent)

[Jameis1of1]

Looking more and more like both Jameis and Mariota may be on new teams next year.

I HIGHLY doubt that in JW's case, as Arians still raves about Jameis and doesn't view turnovers the way the media does in the least. I'd be very surprised if the Bucs don't extend/franchise Jameis.

As for Mariota ... he looks done in Tennessee and for his sake, and I guess for the Titans' sake as well, I hope Tennessee TRADES him before the deadline, rather than just letting him rot on the bench for the rest of the year. If they've decided they have no intention of re-signing him, they might as well get something, even a 5th round pick, etc., in return, and at least give him a chance to go "compete" for playing time on another team. I could see the Dolphins trading a 5th round pick for him and giving him a chance to start, at least for the rest of this year ... I don't see another team that would give him a chance to start but I do think a team with the cap space to add him and who needs a better backup than they currently have, a team like the Cowboys or Raiders could also trade for him.

As for JW, like I said, I'd be very surprised if he isn't extended/franchised by Tampa, but if they are crazy enough to let a 25 year old with elite level talent hit free agency, he will easily be the #1 free agent available and there will be some teams that get into a bidding war to sign him imho, teams such as the Broncos, Bengals, Chargers (if they move on from Rivers which some in the media think is possible), Steelers (if Big Ben retires which I don't think will happen), Cowboys, Titans, Dolphins, Raiders and Saints (if Brees retires, which I do think will happen if the Saints win the SB this year), etc.

[Jameis1of1]

Since 1990 a QB has thrown 5+ interceptions in a game 40 times and only 2 times did their team win. A turnover or two might be overrated by the media but teams lose 95% of the time when this scenario happens which is not overrated. If you include the lost fumble, that has only happened 13 times since 1990 and no team has won giving the ball away 6 times in that fashion. Add in the 7 sacks, that has only happened once since 1950.

You completely misunderstood me if you thought I was saying a team can win turning the ball over seven times (Bobo Wilson also lost a fumble for the Bucs in that game). I was simply saying turnovers in general are over-rated as basically every single week in the NFL there are teams that win who lose the turnover battle, yet the media pretends turnovers are the end-all and be-all of football, when they are anything but.

Having said all that, it’s unfair to hold a QB’s body of work based off of one game. Players like Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Eli Manning (twice), Joe Flacco, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre (twice), and Troy Aikman have all have 5-pick games on their resume.

Favre even had a SIX INTERCEPTION game that featured THREE PICK-6s!

I'm curious about the comparisons between Mariota and Winston. Aside from them being drafted the same year, they are two vastly different QBs. Why is anyone comparing these two still? Seems silly to me. I've also said it before, it's way too early in their careers to judge their historical standings.

I agree with you ... it's like when people compared Drew Bledsoe (akin to JW) and Rick Mirer (akin to Mariota) ... everyone could see one was a gunslinger with elite arm talent and one was a mere "game manager", but it comes with the territory when you're the #1 and #2 picks and play the QB position.

I have little doubt JW will get a HUGE contract this offseason, and if I had to bet, I'd bet Mariota will sign a cheap contract as a backup ala Blake Bortles with the Rams this past offseason.

Final quick hit thoughts:

1. Patrick Mahomes is Favre 2.0 BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!

2. Montana > Marino 4ver

3. Brady will change the BOAT and GOAT titles into "Best/Greatest of all-time outside of Tom Brady" or GBOATOOTB12 (the G and second B are silent)

1. No. I love Mahomes but he doesn't remind me of Favre. He plays a much "safer" brand of football than Favre did, and seems more willing to "play within himself" and "live for the next play" than Favre did, or a guy like JW does ... and I say such as a compliment, not an insult. Mahomes reminds me more of Marino with added athleticism than Favre ... JW and Favre are the same dude.

2. No comment. :-)

3. Brady is not close to even equaling, let alone surpassing Otto Graham as the GOAT ... don't forget the legends of history:-)

[markw2856]

I really don't think it matters what anyone puts, but you have Jameis Winston on a pedestal. All good that you love the guy though. I really don't see the Favre/JW comparisons at all.

Tampa Bay would be smart to franchise Winston next year. One year deal with no future financial pressure on Tampa Bay and also get Winston a second year in Bruce Arians system.

You mentioned in your lengthy response to me that people forget about the poor D or OL in Tampa Bay. That is every team and happens to every QB in their career. Guys like Favre and Manning for example came into teams that didn't win in previous years and turned it around quick.

[Jameis1of1]

I really don't think it matters what anyone puts, but you have Jameis Winston on a pedestal.

That would be true ... if it weren't 100% false, I PUBLICLY called for him to be benched BEFORE Koetter benched him last season, as I thought such would be good for him (and I was right, as he played amazing football after he returned). I simply view things logically and in context, rather than just staring at box scores and spinning wild false narratives. I do the same thing with ALL the QBs I research, not just Jameis ... that is why I'm so much higher on Matt Stafford than almost everyone else and why I never crush any QB for throwing picks that are not truly "on them", etc. I'm not a "team fan" and don't get emotional about sports, which allows me to simply study QBs logically and in context.

All good that you love the guy though. I really don't see the Favre/JW comparisons at all.

Did you never see Favre play? They're the exact same guy.

Tampa Bay would be smart to franchise Winston next year. One year deal with no future financial pressure on Tampa Bay and also get Winston a second year in Bruce Arians system.

Honestly I think ALL teams would ALWAYS be smart to do such ... the Rams wish they would have done that with Goff ... the Eagles should have done that with Wentz ... and the Cowboys should do that with Dak. I've always thought is was an absurd business practice to pay players before you absolutely have to. Sure, I'd love to see every player get paid as much as possible and have the longest "term" contract as possible, but from a team's perspective, I've always thought they were insane to pay players before they need to.

As for Arians, he loves Jameis. The media tried to get him to trash Jameis after the 6 TO game and Arians brushed it off and said Jameis reminds him of a young Big Ben, who he coached, as Ben also refused to throw the ball away and always thought he could make every play ... but of course young Big Ben also had a far better OLine, far better run game, and far better defense than Jameis has had for the past 4 years ...

You mentioned in your lengthy response to me that people forget about the poor D or OL in Tampa Bay. That is every team and happens to every QB in their career. Guys like Favre and Manning for example came into teams that didn't win in previous years and turned it around quick.

Um, you might want to do some research ... I challenge you to give me just one, not 5-10, just one under 25 QB in NFL history that had a winning multi-season record on a team with a bottom 5 rushing attack AND bottom 5 defense ... sure, every QB deals with some issue at some time in their careers but I don't know many who go years in a row with no run game, a terrible defense, terrible special teams and terrible O-Line play ... the one and only year JW even had a "league average" defense the Bucs went 9-7 and only missed the playoffs on a tie-breaker ... and in THAT season the Bucs still gave JW no run support and he was an "offense carrier".

And, YES, there are some guys that experience great "team success" right away, but next to none of them do such with a bottom 5 run game AND defense, most do such as mere "game managers" when they're young, while being carried by a great defense and/or run game (ala Brady, Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson) ... even Dan Marino had an AWESOME defense when he was young which almost everyone has forgot about.

When I evaluate QBs I try to look at what all of them would do if EVERY teammate and coach was merely "league average", as otherwise you're not really comparing QBs against each other, and are instead comparing QB+Coach+Roster against each other and just pretending to be comparing QBs ... I find that sort of thing silly.

[markw2856]

Did you never see Favre play? They're the exact same guy.

I will agree with one thing you have said. We can agree to disagree.

[markw2856]

the one and only year JW even had a "league average" defense the Bucs went 9-7 and only missed the playoffs on a tie-breaker ... and in THAT season the Bucs still gave JW no run support and he was an "offense carrier".

The defense was very aggressive that year. The thing that killed them was inefficient run game, turnovers, and defense with penalties.

2016 Offense 29 Team Turnovers (Winston 24)

2016 Defense 29 Turnovers Gained

Run game was 24th in rushing yards, Passing game was league average, defensive penalties/yards top 5

[Jameis1of1]

The defense was very aggressive that year. The thing that killed them was inefficient run game, turnovers, and defense with penalties.

2016 Offense 29 Team Turnovers (Winston 24)

2016 Defense 29 Turnovers Gained

Run game was 24th in rushing yards, Passing game was league average, defensive penalties/yards top 5

Jameis was 22 years old that year, playing with no run game and behind a bad O-Line ... and he was 12th in the NFL in passing yards, 7th in TD passes and 11th in Raw QBR ... he was not a mere "average quarterback", and I'm not even talking about his ELITE advanced metrics. Also, even if you're just looking at "team stats" ... while the Bucs were middle of the pack in passing yards, they were 7th in passing 1st downs and 8th in passing TDs.

As for the rushing attack ... it was TERRIBLE ... 24th in total yards, 29th in yards per attempt, 31st in TD runs and 25th in 1st down runs.

As for Brett Favre ... in his 2nd season he threw just 19 TD passes to TWENTY-FOUR INTERCEPTIONS with an additional FOURTEEN fumbles!!!! However the Packers went 9-7 as they had the 2nd ranked defense in the entire NFL!

If Jameis ever has a season where he throws 5 more INTs than TDs and has 38 TURNOVERS the media will act like he is the worst QB who ever lived and should be run out of the league!

I watched Favre's entire career and am now having fun watching Winston's ... they are the exact same dude. I'm honestly shocked you don't agree with that. They don't just play exactly alike and have the same mental makeup on the field, they also are extremely similar off the field and in the locker-room from what I've read about Favre and understand about Winston.

If Favre was a young QB in the NFL today AND was saddled with a terrible defense ... oh my goodness would the media hate him and rip him incessantly ... as he would play exactly like Jameis and possibly have even more turnovers ... but man was he a blast to watch sling the pigskin; I miss Favre!