Can Shohei Ohtani make it to the HOF?

[Deckard7]

There are crazy prices on Shohei Ohtani stuff right now, and after some thought, I'm not sure what the huge appeal is for his cards. At least on a possible future value basis.

As a combination pitcher and hitter, he only plays 4 out of every 5 games for the Angels. He plays 3 out of 5 as a hitter, sits completely the day before a pitching start, then pitches 1 out of 5 days as a starter (standard 5-man pitching rotation). Given that, he's unlikely to accumulate enough hitting stats to be considered Hall of Fame worthy purely based on his hitting. He'll never get enough at-bats to qualify for a hitting title, and it's unlikely he'll ever have a high home run or RBI total either.

It's possible that he could become a dominant pitcher and have a long career as such, but we all know how rare that is due to injuries and other factors, like simply remaining good for enough years to accumulate a lot of wins while keeping a respectable ERA. With pitch counts being part of the game these days, I doubt we'll ever see another 300 game winner in baseball.

Seems to me the excitement over Ohtani is the novelty of having a pitcher who hits well and with power. If he does have a long career but continues to have the dual role of hitter and pitcher, I think he'll have to get there based on a combination of his pitching stats and his hitting ones.

In other words, would the baseball writers who vote for the HOF elect a player with 200+ wins as a pitcher, 200+ home runs, and 1,600 or so hits? What kind of combo stats would get him in?

Thoughts?

[pwaldo]

People sell for a lot of money even if they don't make the Hall of Fame. Especially players from the Far East since they have big fan bases in Japan, South Korea, etc that really only collect that player. As more players from places like Japan come here I guess the novelty will ware out because there will be more options but until then the guys will still be very popular even if they don't make the HOF. See Hideo Nomo as a good example.

Also the general rule of thumb with a lot of these Japanese pitchers is they start off really good but then fail apart once hitters catch onto them. So you should be able to tell if he has to switch to full time hitter after awhile pretty soon if it does happen.

[camsue]

Very Interesting question i have to agree with pwaldo

[Deckard7]

People sell for a lot of money even if they don't make the Hall of Fame. Especially players from the Far East since they have big fan bases in Japan, South Korea, etc that really only collect that player. As more players from places like Japan come here I guess the novelty will ware out because there will be more options but until then the guys will still be very popular even if they don't make the HOF. See Hideo Nomo as a good example.

A good point. As far as I know, Ichiro is the only player from the Far East to have a long career in pro baseball with HOF worthy stats. Even today his cards are relatively cheap, including most of his rookie cards unless they're professionally graded with a high grade and/or rare. His autographed items command a premium though.

By the same token, there are are many HOFers or future HOFers who've never been that popular with collectors. Randy Johnson and Adrian Beltre are two that immediately come to mind.

Also the general rule of thumb with a lot of these Japanese pitchers is they start off really good but then fail apart once hitters catch onto them. So you should be able to tell if he has to switch to full time hitter after awhile pretty soon if it does happen.

Yes, or they get injured and require Tommy John surgery. Yu Darvish is a perfect example there. He came to American with a lot of fanfare in 2012 and did well at first, but after injuring his arm he was never the same, and now he's struggling with the Cubs.

I hope Ohtani gives up pitching and becomes a full-time hitter. He'll be more likely to have a long career that way.

As a side note, it's interesting to speculate what Babe Ruth's career batting stats would be if he'd never pitched and was simply a position player his entire career. Best I can tell, he lost at least 4 seasons to being mostly a pitcher. He did bat those years too, of course, since there was no DH, but he didn't play every game like a position player would. Amazing.

[Rabs]

What we are seeing with Ohtani is something none of us have ever seen before. It is quite impressive and he could be the most talented player in all of baseball currently. He has proven he can hit thus far and he throws 100mph!

His prices are nuts right now. If I pulled a nice card of his I would sell for sure. Yes there is always a chance he ends up a HOFer, but it's more likely that he won't than he will.

[pwaldo]

Ohtani was just placed on the DL....

[Rabs]

Ohtani was just placed on the DL....

Yep...UCL. Let's hope it doesn't lead to surgery!