Will the #Great8 catch Gretzky's NHL Goal Record?

[creasecollector]

I'm in the 50/50 camp. Still, for one of Gretzky's main records, that's pretty good. Age is a funny thing though, it can creep up on you out of nowhere. Either way, I'm pulling for him. Gretzky has enough records, time to share one.

That's the thing, just one major injury (or even one that nags) could affect the whole thing. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Still ways away at this point.

[30ranfordfan]

I'm in the 50/50 camp.....

The math is pretty simple:

Let's give him another 18 before the end of the season. That would be 52 on the year, and 710 career. I'm erring on the side of caution (he's actually scoring at a higher pace than that, right now).

That will also mean he's broken 50 goals in 5 of 7 seasons.... and one of the other two, he had 49.

How long can he keep this up? If he can do it at 34 years old... have to think he can do it at 35.... but at some point, he has to regress. That's what us old folks in their late 40s do.

Assume he ends this season at 710..... if he can pop another 140 over the next three years (ages 35, 36, 37) then he simply needs a couple of 25 goal seasons to do it, and I'd expect him to at that point.

Age will catch up to him. He's probably not going to fall off a cliff, and go from 50 to 20..... but if he's "only" a 40 goal scorer next year, he's going to be "only" a 35 goal scorer before you know it. Anyone who can pop 35 at age 36 is amazing in my books... but that makes the record harder and harder to break.

He needs two more seasons where he's scoring at his current rate, and a third where he's scoring at (about) 80% of this rate. If he can do that - he'll probably break 900.

It's not a question of "if" time will catch up to him, it's "when".


Personally, I hope he does it.... but I need another 24 months, or so, to have a strong opinion. lol

[TheLastOlympian07]

The man just scores goals. I think he will do it. Just think of the 04/05 robbing him of his true rookie season, we could add what do you think 30? 40? 50? then the 11/12 half lockout that robbed him of what 20? 30? goals when he scored 32 in 48 games.

[pwaldo]

I voted no but I'd say 50/50 is an accurate bet on this because unless a strike or injury happens he can always slowly chip away until he gets the record. Much easier to chase the record.

I'd vote yes now

[jameslacarte]

As much as i hate to say it i think he will do it. Its clearly on his mind & something he wants to do so i dont think anything short of a career ending injury will stop him. What is he now? 36? He is a physical specimen & i think he could play well into his 40's if he really wants to & at a high level. He is still scoring alot of goals & i dont see anything to make me believe that that will change anytime soon. As much as i hate it i think he will beat Gretzky's record if he can stay healthy though at the end of the day i hope he ends up #2 all time. I would like to see that record belong to a Canadian..

[Devlin]

As much as i hate to say it i think he will do it. Its clearly on his mind & something he wants to do so i dont think anything short of a career ending injury will stop him. What is he now? 36? He is a physical specimen & i think he could play well into his 40's if he really wants to & at a high level. He is still scoring alot of goals & i dont see anything to make me believe that that will change anytime soon. As much as i hate it i think he will beat Gretzky's record if he can stay healthy though at the end of the day i hope he ends up #2 all time. I would like to see that record belong to a Canadian..

I agree. I don't think he'll catch Gretz over all pts totall. Which i am not rooting for.

[cardscardscards]

Ovi has the drive, he's doing it. And he'll probably have a super long career like Jagr.

[MR.M's Cards]

I agree. I don't think he'll catch Gretz over all pts totall. Which i am not rooting for.

think that is pretty safe

[KleverRobot]

I think he keeps playing until he breaks it, only 145 to go! He should also be able to do it in less games...

[Fred Bear]

I voted yes.

It's not an unbreakable record as much as people want to believe. If Jagr had 4 more seasons during his prime in the NHL, 04-05 labor stoppage and 3 years in the KHL, we're talking about Ovi beating Jagr's record - not Gretzky's...