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  1. #1
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    College hockey is churning out the NHL's top-producing rookie defensemen

    GRAND FORKS — Members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association recently cast their votes for the Calder Trophy, which goes to the NHL's top rookie.

    Their decision was an agonizing choice: They had the option of voting for Quinn Hughes, who tallied 53 points for the Vancouver Canucks. They also had Cale Makar, who racked up 50 points in an injury-shortened season for the Colorado Avalanche. Also lingering there was Adam Fox, who had 42 points for the New York Rangers.
    https://www.wctrib.com/sports/hockey...kie-defensemen

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    This makes me recall an article I read, ummmmm, 20 years ago? I couldn't tell you who wrote it, or for what publication (it was probably The Hockey News). It was predicting the decline in Canadians as NHLers (as a total percentage).

    One of the things it suggested would eventually happen, is a large percentage of NHL defenceman would be American (large is relative, I guess, but that more NHL dmen would be American, than any other country).

    Why? Well, one - as hockey gets more popular in the USA, it's bound to push more young people into playing the game. We're seeing that now. We've been seeing it for a while. No Gretzky in LA means no Phoenix Coyotes, which probably means not Austin Matthews. A large percentage of the USA following hockey isn't needed, for an eventual rise to the top for Americans: If 25% of the country was really into hockey, that would be dwarf the following it has in Canada.

    Anyway, defence specifically: It's the easiest position to teach, and at the time of this article (maybe it wasn't quite 20 years ago, but for sure more than 10) it talked about the entire development process for high-end hockey players in Canada vs USA. The American model is much more focused on practices, and skills development. The Canadian model includes practices, but has a much heavier game load.

    For the 18 year old stars, playing Major Junior vs NCAA: The Major Junior kids are playing more than double the games.... but the NCAA kids are getting more practice time. That trend continues right down to the younger ages.

    Age is a thing too, and the article mentioned that. Players who stick around for at least one more years of school after being drafted, are getting to the NHL at 19 or 20, instead of 18 or 19. That year helps.

    I was a little surprised to see how many of the top 10 rookie dman seasons have come from NCAA kids, but immediately that article I talked about came to mind.

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    Well at least we know your not suffering any memory loss at this point.

    Of course the percentages are going to up as more kids get funneled into hockey than ever before. If that trend continues of course you will have more U.S. hockey players but still will always pale into comparisons to those North of the Border. My biggest concern is the cost of playing hockey as those go up how many families can truly get their kids into the elite training and prep leagues they need to achieve the dream of playing in the NHL. If those numbers go down drastically that will only make the numbers for the U.S. and other countries to increase at a higher percentage of the overall NHL.









    From the high point to the last year it looks like a drop of a 100,000 which is a great decline.

    DON

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    This was pretty interesting to me, "Before the Blackhawks started its run of success, USA Hockey reported 22,222 registered hockey players in the state of Illinois from the adult level all the way down to 6 & Under in 2007-08. USA Hockey just released its membership figures for the 2014-15 season. Illinois has now home to 30,553 registered ice hockey players. That’s growth of more than 37.4 percent since 2007-08. Over that same span, the national average for growth nationwide is 13.8 percent" However, since that time period, the Hawks have had a string of down years
    And last year that number was down to 29,000 players. Americans seem to have swings based on popularity.

    Illinois is an interesting case, they have been producing some really elite talent, but lose all that talent to other NCAA schools. They are just now getting UofI a D1 team, and it'll be interesting to see how quickly they are able to get competitive.

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    Well at least we know your not suffering any memory loss at this point.

    Of course the percentages are going to up as more kids get funneled into hockey than ever before. If that trend continues of course you will have more U.S. hockey players but still will always pale into comparisons to those North of the Border. My biggest concern is the cost of playing hockey as those go up how many families can truly get their kids into the elite training and prep leagues they need to achieve the dream of playing in the NHL. If those numbers go down drastically that will only make the numbers for the U.S. and other countries to increase at a higher percentage of the overall NHL.


    DON

    I have always thought that "growing the game" in the USA, will eventually lead to America being the #1 producer of NHL talent, eventually.

    A big part of being a great athlete is genetics. Simply put: all the hard work in the work, dedication, an passion for the game: If you don't have the right naturally gifted body, you're not going to make it.

    I also believe that most "top" athletes could have been stars in other sports, if that's where their passion had been at an early age. Sidney Crosby probably would have made a heck of a baseball player, if he'd focused his efforts on baseball instead of hockey. While Jalen Ramsey oversimplified this concept (and sounded like an idiot when he did) - to a degree I do think what he said was correct. He could have been a hockey player if he'd wanted to, had he been into hockey as a kid instead of football.

    One thing that has always come across to me about the USA (true of most countries, but even more so for Americans) is that winning, and being the best, attracts eyeballs & interest. Simply being competitive does not. Hockey has always been popular in some American regions, but not nationally. When the Miracle On Ice game happened in 1980, that was a turning point for USA hockey. Think about which NHLers were 7-12 years old at that time. A big chunk of the 1996 World Cup roster. I don't think that's a fluke. By the late 80s you see this big uptick in American born NHL stars.

    By the mid-late 90s, those numbers had dipped again, but then you started to see another trend upwards - kids who would have been (in part) inspired by the 1996 team, being the best in the world.
    @sparty07 makes the point about Illinois. Doesn't surprise me at all. Blackhawks get really good, win some Cups, and there's a big uptick in local kids who want to play hockey. I would suspect you'd find similar spikes in other American cities.

    It's not a whole lot different than Basketball in Toronto. Basketball has never been a sport that Canada was traditionally great at. We've never been known as a country that produced more than the odd basketball player.... but getting the Raptors in the mid-90s put more eyeballs on the game. Vince Carter becoming a superstar for the Raptors put even eyeballs on it. Suddenly way more kids were playing basketball than ever before. The competition gets better, continues to get better, and over time.... the best of the best can make it in the NBA.

    I'm guessing for the next few years, you're going to see a higher number of Canadians drafted into the MLB than you did in years past. A 12 year old in 2015, getting caught up in Blue Jay Fever: He'll be 18 next year. If he was a great 12 year old in multiple sports, but shifted his focus to baseball after that - he's coming up for the draft soon.

    The USA has 10x the population of Canada. If hockey could ever become HUGE in half the country, it would only be good for the game - more and more high level (child) athletes will pick hockey, and the talent pool will get deeper.

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    This was pretty interesting to me, "Before the Blackhawks started its run of success, USA Hockey reported 22,222 registered hockey players in the state of Illinois from the adult level all the way down to 6 & Under in 2007-08. USA Hockey just released its membership figures for the 2014-15 season. Illinois has now home to 30,553 registered ice hockey players. That’s growth of more than 37.4 percent since 2007-08. Over that same span, the national average for growth nationwide is 13.8 percent" However, since that time period, the Hawks have had a string of down years
    And last year that number was down to 29,000 players. Americans seem to have swings based on popularity.

    Illinois is an interesting case, they have been producing some really elite talent, but lose all that talent to other NCAA schools. They are just now getting UofI a D1 team, and it'll be interesting to see how quickly they are able to get competitive.

    I'm from Illinois so I cant say I'm shocked... I mean there is plenty of ice here in the winter, not only that but rinks are being erected everywhere so hockey is becoming more relevant than it was when I was a kid - and obviously the Hawks 3 Cups helped. And yes indeed Illinois has been producing a lot of elite talent recently - or at the very least junior hockey clubs located in Illinois are producing some pretty good talent - like the Chicago Steel, among other smaller clubs few would know about.. I mean Alex DeBrincat played at Lake Forrest College, and I had the opportunity to see him play there on several occasions because my buddies son was on the team and DeBrincat just blew me away.. I was like "what is this elite small little dude doing playing here? he makes these dudes look like pylons", lol... I thought: "shouldn't this kid be playing up in Canada on a junior team where he will get more exposure"?... Of course he eventually signed with the Erie Otters - which was absolutely the right decision - had he stayed at Lake Forrest College he would have never been drafted, tho I'm shocked he didn't go to the USDP.... Obviously Alex Turcotte is another product of Illinois, Craig Anderson is another Illinois product - I believe he's from Northbrook, but yea - there is a ton of excellent talent coming out of Illinois and every year it grows.... Illinois is starting to become a hockey hotbed rivaling Minnesota.. Dustin Byfuglien, although not an Illinois native played his hockey here, Al Montoya as well.. Oh and how can I forget J.T. Compher?

    And it's kinda funny because when I was a kid not many NHL'ers were from Illinois. I mean off the top of my head I can think of Tony Granato (I believe he's from Buffalo Grove) and Rick Zombo, who was actually born in the same hospital I was born in....But now, Illinois is churning out some serious NHL talent...

    As far as NCAA division I talent, college hockey in the United States is a way different animal than juniors in Canada. College hockey is way more similar to the NHL than Canadian juniors and the age differences are night and day.. When it comes to college hockey you're talking about players between the ages of 18 and 22 or even 24 in some situations.. I mean it's a totally different path to the NHL.. Canadian juniors are more "teenage league(s)" while college and the NCAA division I is more of an adult league - men playing against men... I mean, yes I am aware there are some un-drafted men playing in Canadian juniors but the leagues are generally comprised of 16-year-olds to 19-year-olds. Of course if you're granted "exceptional status" you can play at 15 I believe.. But when it comes to NCAA hockey - like I said it's 18-19+ and even then if you're a teenager playing in the NCAA you'' be developed like an NHL prospect that played in Canadian juniors post draft unless you're a total elite talent that is ready to jump right into the NCAA... So yea, IMO - the NCAA is more similar to the AHL than any other league - not only that but there are some good NCAA programs out there that can develop and deliver NHL ready players... And as someone from the US I'm happy and proud that the United States has more of an influence in the NHL... Heck, half of the USDP was drafted in the First Round at the 2019 draft....And no offense to Canadians but I think that's going to be a trend that continues for quite some time.... You have to remember that the United States has 10x the population of Canada and statistically speaking factoring that you're going to see a lot more US born NHL players..

    I will concede that hockey is very cultural in Canada tho, much like baseball or football is in the United States, it's just that hockey is an expensive and time consuming sport to play - but programs sponsored by the NHL and NHL teams are making playing hockey a bit more affordable - but the United States as a whole is still a long way from reaching it's full "hockey potential" if that makes any sense.

    I will say I wish we had all of these programs when I was a kid - not to sound like an ™™™ or anything but I think if these programs were around when I was growing up I could have gone down a path that got me drafted - I was a pretty elite hockey player (compared to the competition)... I mean I was drafted in the MLB draft, so I was a decent athlete when I was younger.... I mean I still play beer league hockey, but I've been slowing it down recently - and sat out this past winter - I had a work injury in the fall anyways. I mean I'm almost 40, and I would still like to play, but I think I'm ready for a league that consists of players 40-60 years old, lol... But yea, on occasion I will go out to one of the outdoor rinks around here in the winter and play some pickup hockey with the kids - that's always fun....

    Anyway, hockey is indeed growing in the United States - especially Illinois - and it makes me kinda proud... I don't know how Canadians feel about it - hopefully there is no animosity there. I've talked to a few French Canadians, that apparently believe the United States is infringing on their turf, lol.. Not to be insulting or anything but French Canadians are "unusual" and have odd personalities to say the least, lol..

    Anyway that's just my opinion.

    - Nick

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    As far as NCAA division I talent, college hockey in the United States is a way different animal than juniors in Canada. College hockey is way more similar to the NHL than Canadian juniors and the age differences are night and day.. When it comes to college hockey you're talking about players between the ages of 18 and 22 or even 24 in some situations.. I mean it's a totally different path to the NHL.. Canadian juniors are more "teenage league(s)" while college and the NCAA division I is more of an adult league - men playing against men... I mean, yes I am aware there are some un-drafted men playing in Canadian juniors but the leagues are generally comprised of 16-year-olds to 19-year-olds. Of course if you're granted "exceptional status" you can play at 15 I believe.. But when it comes to NCAA hockey - like I said it's 18-19+ and even then if you're a teenager playing in the NCAA you'' be developed like an NHL prospect that played in Canadian juniors post draft unless you're a total elite talent that is ready to jump right into the NCAA... So yea, IMO - the NCAA is more similar to the AHL than any other league - not only that but there are some good NCAA programs out there that can develop and deliver NHL ready players... And as someone from the US I'm happy and proud that the United States has more of an influence in the NHL... Heck, half of the USDP was drafted in the First Round at the 2019 draft....And no offense to Canadians but I think that's going to be a trend that continues for quite some time.... You have to remember that the United States has 10x the population of Canada and statistically speaking factoring that you're going to see a lot more US born NHL players..



    Different animal, yes. Closer to than NHL than Major Junior in Canada? I would suggest not.....

    The CHL (which includes the three leagues: OHL, WHL, QMJHL) plays a 68 game regular season, followed by a 4 round playoff. The eventual winner (of each league) then plays a 5th round (along with the host city) for the Memorial Cup (winner of each league, plus host). Their regular season is only 14 games shorter than the NHL's, but the eventual winner of the Memorial Cup played 4 or 5 additional playoff games.

    There's a reason why many top prospects leave the NCAA after they've been drafted (high) and go to major junior. For the best of the best, it's better preparation for the NHL. No, the kids are not as developed.... as you pointed out: They're 16-19 (plus a couple of 20 year olds per team)... but there's many more high end players in this league (both quantity, and per capita).

    I have long thought that the NCAA makes a big mistake treating Major Junior players as professionals, and therefore NOT eligible to play D1, D2, etc. Eliminate that rule, and I think within 15 years the NCAA would become the top developmental league for hockey.

    Right now, a kid is 16 years old and he has to decide if he wants to play Major Junior, or NCAA. That's a huge ask. Junior is the quicker path to the NHL, and if you're Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid... there is no real risk in going that route. Heck, you could be like Auston Matthews and go make a million bucks in Switerland, and thumb your nose at both programs.

    But instead of focusing on the best of the best, just consider a player who beats the odds... and does actually get drafted, but in the 5th round. He's offered a contract that will pay him $30k a year, while he plays in the ECHL and develops. He's 19 years old. If he had the option to go play D1, maybe even on a scholarship (or partial one? the CHL also has a "we pay for school" program) he can suddenly go after a university education, that's often worth way more than $30k a year, while still developing as a hockey player. If a lot of players in this boat made their way into the NCAA, it would bring up the overall level too.

    To be totally honest: If I had a 16 year old son, who was a fantastic hockey player.... and bright enough that doing well at school is also a thing.... unless I felt like he was some kind of can't-miss prodigy, I'd be pushing the NCAA route, and not the CHL.


    I will concede that hockey is very cultural in Canada tho, much like baseball or football is in the United States, it's just that hockey is an expensive and time consuming sport to play - but programs sponsored by the NHL and NHL teams are making playing hockey a bit more affordable - but the United States as a whole is still a long way from reaching it's full "hockey potential" if that makes any sense.

    Bang on. This is what I was getting at with my other post. For the USA to become the dominant country in hockey, they need a greater percentage of their best athletes to want to play hockey when they're kids. In theory, it can happen overtime.... and i think you do see a greater percentage of it now.

    Canada also has the opposite to worry about. 30 years ago, most 8 year old boys (if they were good at sports) played hockey in the winter, and something else in the summer. Now? There's a lot more competition for those kids. Basketball has numbers way beyond what it once did. Soccer has actually been the most played sport in Canada for about 20 years now... and while not in direct competition with hockey (one is a summer sport, one in the winter) - it does become a competitor when the kids get a bit older, and have to focus on one.


    I will say I wish we had all of these programs when I was a kid - not to sound like an ™™™ or anything but I think if these programs were around when I was growing up I could have gone down a path that got me drafted - I was a pretty elite hockey player (compared to the competition)... I mean I was drafted in the MLB draft, so I was a decent athlete when I was younger.... I mean I still play beer league hockey, but I've been slowing it down recently - and sat out this past winter - I had a work injury in the fall anyways. I mean I'm almost 40, and I would still like to play, but I think I'm ready for a league that consists of players 40-60 years old, lol... But yea, on occasion I will go out to one of the outdoor rinks around here in the winter and play some pickup hockey with the kids - that's always fun....

    Anyway, hockey is indeed growing in the United States - especially Illinois - and it makes me kinda proud... I don't know how Canadians feel about it - hopefully there is no animosity there. I've talked to a few French Canadians, that apparently believe the United States is infringing on their turf, lol.. Not to be insulting or anything but French Canadians are "unusual" and have odd personalities to say the least, lol..

    Anyway that's just my opinion.

    - Nick


    You were taken in MLB draft? That's pretty cool. What team (if you don't mind my asking) ??

    Hockey is WAY too expensive for kids. Particularly the higher level stuff. I'm 40, I still play hockey (well, not since COVID 19, but that's another story). I'm only a few years removed from playing in 3 leagues during the winter, and 2 during the summer (each league would have been once a week). Since having a kid 4 years ago, I cut it all down to just 1 league year round. A 1 game per week rec league, depending on where you play it here.... will cost around $300 per "season". (Fall / Winter, and Spring / Summer being two different seasons). I don't think that's an awful price, but it's certainly not cheap.

    Anyway, the equipment is expensive, and the leagues are expensive, but I could write for hours talking about how they make in unnecessarily expensive.

    If you've got a 10 year old who is playing the 'AAA' team around here, you're looking at registration fees that will approach $1000. Now, they're getting a lot of ice time (games, and practices) and since this is supposed to be "high level" - I'll just accept this, and say that's what it costs.

    Equipment? There is no reason any 10 year old needs a $300 hockey stick, but if you're playing on the AAA team.... and all the other kids have one, do you want to be the one that doesn't? Of course you don't, and your parents don't either. Time to go buy two of them, and they'll be replaced a few times per year. Skates? Sure. New pair for $500+ and it MIGHT last you a year.

    Then there's the tournaments. There is no reason in the world that a team of 10 year olds from Toronto should be traveling to Pennsylvania for a hockey tournament.... but things like that are normal. Many of those AAA teams will cross in the USA at least once per season, host their own tournament at some point, and play in at least half a dozen other ones (in Ontario) that require traveling well over 100 KM (60 MI) and overnight stays. Of course your parents could opt to drive you to the tournament... home after you've played your three games that day... and back to it again the next morning - but do you want to be the only kid who didn't stay in the hotel with team? Of course not. These things add $1000s of dollars to the annual hockey budget for families.

    Is this sort of thing that's helping shrink the enrollment numbers in Canada. Combine that with the expectation that kids will play / train for hockey year round (burning them out, quickly) and Canada is going to run into problems in the future, I think.

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    Love reading a post morph into members laying out great thoughts and insights!



    Don

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