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Thread: Crash coming

  
  1. #1




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    Crash coming

    With the state of the current hobby in all sports I wonder if the hobby after the pandemic its is going to have a epic crash.? I'm sure that there will be a correction or crash in value and prices but how large is my question to everyone.
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    With boxes selling for way more then what the contents are worth. Were the sealed box or case is more valuable then what is inside most of the time. In hockey we are not seeing this as much but in other sports common singles of starts say like Jordan, Griffey JR, Trout, and others in Baseball, basketball and Football are selling at $ 2-8ea. most of these type of cards were found in .25, .50 or dollar bins just a over a year ago.Top rookie cards of McDavid, Crosby, Ovie, and others are selling or have been selling for top dollar.

    I know in hockey is has not seemed like the ridicules price increase has shown up as much as it has in other sports but we have seen it with some Rookies, Wax boxes. and some other cards. so im wondering is it me or does anyone else think the hobby is in for a epic value crash say in about 12-15 months from now if the vaccine can be given out to most everyone by then and life returns to 2019 normal.

  2. #2




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    I think so, too, but I'm not certain of it. The disposable income that used to pay for vacations, restaurants, etc. is now being spent on other things such as sports cards. When back-to-normal arrives, interest in the hobby may wane off. But it also might not, so who knows... I hate how unaffordable it's become to buy boxes, but when compared to the other major sports, hockey's been mostly spared.

    My junk cards which represent 95% of all I have still aren't worth the cardboard they were printed on.


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    I think so, too, but I'm not certain of it. The disposable income that used to pay for vacations, restaurants, etc. is now being spent on other things such as sports cards. When back-to-normal arrives, interest in the hobby may wane off. But it also might not, so who knows... I hate how unaffordable it's become to buy boxes, but when compared to the other major sports, hockey's been mostly spared.

    My junk cards which represent 95% of all I have still aren't worth the cardboard they were printed on.

    The correction will be when this part of the hobby gets out of it.

    The Chinese/Taiwanese/Philipino market loves the PSA slabs.

    . As you have seen grading growing at a ridiculous rate which has been fueled by these new players entering the market. If they buy the singles graded someone has to open the products and thus the boxes are selling for way more than what they did in the past. The correction will only come when the $'s chasing the graded cards fall as the boxes will no longer be in demand and thus domino's fall from the beginning to the end in the supply chain. That is just my take.

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    I suspect a crash but don't know when I suspect after the crash UD will lose its Exclusive it would only make sense Upper Deck is flooding enough for the 90s when multiple companies accomplished it

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    What we've seen happen this year, I think, has mostly to do with a lot of new people (and their money) getting into sports cards (in general) and then hockey specifically.

    If a Mike Trout Topps RC can sell for thousands, then it stands to reason that any player having sustained success.... his card should be able to get hundreds of dollars, at least. People start snapping up the singles... and suddenly the supply gets limited.

    Hockey has always been a distant 4th in terms of popularity in North America. Market size is tiny compared to Baseball, Basketball, and Football. I do believe a lot of the hockey price spikes we've seen are, in part, because "investors" that had been putting their money into other sports - they went to hockey looking for value. Find places where the room to grow was obvious, and they wouldn't have to wait years to see a big return. I'm guessing it's hard to make much money buying & selling Mike Trout RCs now - unless you're buying raw, grading them, and getting a high grade.

    I don't follow the other sports nearly as closely, but hockey (for years) has sold on hype. New rookie class comes along.... sells really well.... and most of them see their values crash the following season, because now everyone wants the newer & shinier player. Demand drops big time.

    I guess I would have to ask what you mean by a "crash" though. Do I see last year's top rookies like Cale Makar & Quinn Hughes maintaining their value? Not even close. If either goes on to win 3 Stanley Cups, a Conn Smythe, and 2 Norris Trophies.... he'll have had the career of Duncan Keith. Look what Duncan Keith's cards sell for. If Jack Hughes explodes... I think there's room for growth on his pricing. Kakko is the one from last year whose long term value might be much higher than current prices.

    Overall though? I don't think you're going to see the key RCs of McDavid, Crosby, Ovechkin, or Gretzky drop much. Maybe a small dip.... but those prices are not coming down much, IMO. McDavid, I guess, a career ending injury next season.... and never getting to the point of being an all-time great could tank his prices.... but the other three: I think the current pricing is here to stay, and will only go up.

    Some of the mid-tier guys who have seen their values jump - you might see a bigger dip on them. If the growth in value goes away.... speculators might get tired of holding them. If you bought Toews for $100, saw it jump to $200, and then see it going for $150... maybe you're incline to sell. If you bought McDavid for $800, no way you're letting it go for half that..... unless you're desperate for cash.... but even then, enough people have to be in that position for that to become a trend.

    The inflated wax prices, people buying out walmart retail products... and then flipping for 50% (or more) over the purchase price: That might be gone in 12-15 months..... I just don't see the prices on those big time cards coming down again.

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    I hope not! I see some people complaining about how expensive a Lafreniere YG is. Isn't it a good thing that you can get some value and even profit from buying and opening product? It is also nice to look through your stash and find some of your cards are actually worth something and gained value. An Ovechkin prizm card for example. Yeah people say you should not collect for value but honestly who wants to collect something that will eventually be worth next to nothing? The honest answer is not many people. I hope hockey catches up to the ther sports.
    I think for already established star players the boom will continue especially when supply becomes scarce.
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    I think while some single will crash, leaving a lot of people holding the back, I think 'safer' cards like the Crosby's, Gretzky's, Ovechkin's, etc. Will stay the course and keep their value. The cards that have been due for an increase will be fine... others... not so much. In hockey, I don't think we'll see too much of a crash aside from our usual hyped up rookies. Other sports are a different story.

    Great topic!!

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    As long as hockey doesn't turned into football and basketball, with prices for wax going to an insane level(Panini's fault?). I mean, when a box of Donruss sells for $350 + tax in Canada, I am priced out of the hobby. But with UD hobby now selling for almost $200 a box a week after releasing, I am afraid the same is happening in hockey too.
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    As long as hockey doesn't turned into football and basketball, with prices for wax going to an insane level(Panini's fault?). I mean, when a box of Donruss sells for $350 + tax in Canada, I am priced out of the hobby. But with UD hobby now selling for almost $200 a box a week after releasing, I am afraid the same is happening in hockey too.

    Same here, the hobby was already expensive enough haha. I don't think we'll see other sports' prices on wax, but who knows at this point.

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    Is 2020-21 series one $200 a box?? I can't see how that will last especially when they may not even be a season this year. Plus e-pack there will be lots of Laffy's available. Chalk it up to Covid madness or boredom. I thought of buying a box but nope I'm not that bored. lol

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