Connor McDavid OPC Platinum RC

[scarrman]

I was lucky enough to pull the McDavid OPC Platinum RC Auto, Rainbow Parallel, pulled it probably 3-4 years ago. Not looking to move the card, it's a keeper. But a question about the odds.

The odds posted for his Auto RC, the Rainbow Parallel, and Blue Retro Rainbow Parallel are as follows:

Rookie Autographs, 190. Connor McDavid - Edmonton Oilers C 1:704 (there are 3 C's)
Rainbow Rookie Autographs Parallel, 190. Connor McDavid - Edmonton Oilers B 1:10,201 (there are 2 B's)
Retro Rainbow Blue Autographs, R97 Connor McDavid - Edmonton Oilers B 1:5,800 (there are 2 B's)

So just trying to get an understanding of what ratio of cards are out there. Simplest math, his regular RC Auto is 1:704 vs the Rainbow Auto parallel is 1:10,201, would mean there are 14.5X more of his regular Auto RC. Or do you need the multiply the number of Cs and the number of Bs and recalculate, may drop the odds down to about 10X of his regular Auto RC the Rainbow.? I would think straight up odds between the Rainbow RC Auto and Retro Blue Rainbow RC Auto - there would be half as many of the Rainbow RC Auto.

Looking at some sales history, recent shows 7 of his Rookie Autograph, 3 of the Retro Rainbow Blue, 0 of the Rainbow Auto Parallel, although did sell 3/4 months ago, and another listing closed so a couple Rainbow sales.

Anyway, a bit of a nuisance thread, but wondering if anyone likes to, or has crunched the numbers, to get a sense of how these 3 may compare? The actual numbered parallels have very limited sales history, but overall compare in with the Blue Retro.

Thanks for read, look forward to any feedback or comments.

[30ranfordfan]

I was lucky enough to pull the McDavid OPC Platinum RC Auto, Rainbow Parallel, pulled it probably 3-4 years ago. Not looking to move the card, it's a keeper. But a question about the odds.

The odds posted for his Auto RC, the Rainbow Parallel, and Blue Retro Rainbow Parallel are as follows:

Rookie Autographs, 190. Connor McDavid - Edmonton Oilers C 1:704 (there are 3 C's)
Rainbow Rookie Autographs Parallel, 190. Connor McDavid - Edmonton Oilers B 1:10,201 (there are 2 B's)
Retro Rainbow Blue Autographs, R97 Connor McDavid - Edmonton Oilers B 1:5,800 (there are 2 B's)

So just trying to get an understanding of what ratio of cards are out there. Simplest math, his regular RC Auto is 1:704 vs the Rainbow Auto parallel is 1:10,201, would mean there are 14.5X more of his regular Auto RC. Or do you need the multiply the number of Cs and the number of Bs and recalculate, may drop the odds down to about 10X of his regular Auto RC the Rainbow.? I would think straight up odds between the Rainbow RC Auto and Retro Blue Rainbow RC Auto - there would be half as many of the Rainbow RC Auto.

Looking at some sales history, recent shows 7 of his Rookie Autograph, 3 of the Retro Rainbow Blue, 0 of the Rainbow Auto Parallel, although did sell 3/4 months ago, and another listing closed so a couple Rainbow sales.

Anyway, a bit of a nuisance thread, but wondering if anyone likes to, or has crunched the numbers, to get a sense of how these 3 may compare? The actual numbered parallels have very limited sales history, but overall compare in with the Blue Retro.

Thanks for read, look forward to any feedback or comments.

Yeah, you need to multiply out the number of Bs and Cs to figure out the odds.... but the whole grouping thing: You can never actually answer your question for sure.

Those two Rainbow Rookie Autographs Parallels (combined) are about 10.3 x as rare as the three base Rookie autos...... but that's all cards in the group, not a specific card within it.

They do these "Groups" on purpose, to make it impossible to know the true print runs. Not all cards within the group are printed in equal numbers (they could be, but we don't know, since UD won't say).

The 3 Cards that are seeded 1:704 packs: You would expect that if you were to open 2112 packs, you would get one of each. That may not be the case. Maybe McDavid is more short printed than the other two.... and you need to open an average of 4224 packs to pull a single McDavid, while getting multiples of the other.


I think your guess is a good one. It's probably 10x (ish) rarer than the base, and twice as rare as the Retro - but there is no way to crunch the numbers, and come up with a definitive answer.

[RGM81]

As far as actual print runs go, UD likes to stick to the mantra "we will let the market decide their scarcity" line.

[scarrman]

Yah, I kinda figured. No way to pin down an actual print run and I wasn't expecting to find out how many were made. But it is apparent the Rainbow is scarce, more than the actual RC auto and about half of the Retro Blue Auto. Based on sales I have been watching for a few months, the Platinum RC autos don't come up too often, and the Rainbow is rarely seen. Bonkers to see the jump in prices much like other top shelf guys, especially good when you have a copy - certainly one of the best pulls of my lifetime!

Thanks for the feedback, appreciate it.

[LecavalierFan]

Very nice, congrats! I opened a TON of 15-16 OPC Platinum, and never hit the McDavid base auto. I had to go online and get one of those, as well as the Retro Blue for my sets. I was lucky enough, however, to pull the Black Ice parallel /50(?). What I find weird about that is, though, it has the same "BV" as the White Ice, which has twice as many copies, and I think less than the Red Prism, which has half as many more copies. So, in short, I have no idea how rare the base and rainbow are, but they are nice either way :-)

Edit - NM, I was thinking about the Marquee Rookies. Which, for SOME reason, some are priced higher than the true RC counterparts. For example, the auto RC Black Ice /50 is $X (not sure if allowed to post BV's, but the point will stand), while the Marquee Rookie Black Ice /99 is $1.6X (meaning, 60% higher value than the auto, true RC parallel version). If someone could explain that to me, that'd be great.

[scarrman]

Nice pull yourself!

No idea on the multipliers question. Are you comparing your Black Ice Auto with a Marquee Rookie Black Ice? Would think the Black Ice Auto would be a multiplier against the actual RC, where the Black Ice MR would a multiplier against the Marquee Rookie base card.

The auto RC would have a much higher "base value" so a parallel may not fetch much more. Say the auto RC has a BV of $1,000, the Black Ice parallel, if it was 1X would be too low, more likely 3X to 5X.

The Marquee Rookie "should" be a low value insert, and a low # parallel should then be a higher multiplier. If the base insert had a BV of $50, the Black Ice parallel could make sense to be 1.6X, but again should be 3X to 5X.

Notwithstanding the fact that the sale values are growing exponentially, and the world has become very fond of any parallel of a RC, be it regular series, or an insert.

[LecavalierFan]

Nice pull yourself!

No idea on the multipliers question. Are you comparing your Black Ice Auto with a Marquee Rookie Black Ice? Would think the Black Ice Auto would be a multiplier against the actual RC, where the Black Ice MR would a multiplier against the Marquee Rookie base card.

The auto RC would have a much higher "base value" so a parallel may not fetch much more. Say the auto RC has a BV of $1,000, the Black Ice parallel, if it was 1X would be too low, more likely 3X to 5X.

The Marquee Rookie "should" be a low value insert, and a low # parallel should then be a higher multiplier. If the base insert had a BV of $50, the Black Ice parallel could make sense to be 1.6X, but again should be 3X to 5X.

Notwithstanding the fact that the sale values are growing exponentially, and the world has become very fond of any parallel of a RC, be it regular series, or an insert.

Perhaps I should clarify a bit more. I thought I had, but...anyways.

I'm not comparing the prices as multipliers to each other. I'm saying that the BV of the one happens to a 1.6X multiplier to the other, but they don't reflect on each other at all. More of an observation, albeit a confused one, than anything.

[michaelpatko]

I wouldn't trust UD in this scenario. 2 players in group B could still be 900 of player 1, and 100 of player 2, but overall seeded at the Group B ratio.

[scimo]

I've been looking for info about these McDavid Rainbow autos for a while, and finally found this 10 month old thread.
I tried to do the math myself and realized it's impossible. The print run for the Traxx is 125, so my guess for the print run is more than 125.
I had the choice between the ungraded/graded rainbow, or other numbered variations of the card a few years back, and I ended up having the ungraded, PSA and BGS rainbow.