A lesson why you should never throw away junk wax

[Savard18]

Some of those odd cards do well today. I mean "well" is relative..... you're not going to retire on them, but I suspect the Mr. Rogers Platinum card started doing well when the movie came out. It wouldn't surprise me if the Larry King was suddenly worth a few bucks when he died. Celebrities like that: Not like they had a lot in the way of collectibles (at least not that I'm aware of) - so that someone would get all nostalgic and want to spend a few bucks on one doesn't surprise me.

And yeah, the Barilko card wasn't an insert. Just part of the "legends" subset (like the Howe). I could have sworn that even 20 years ago, it took a bump in value. Beckett listed it for $10, and also listed a complete set for $10. lol

The fact these cards have any interest at all is good, let alone "collectors" paying bonkers money for them..

It's really weird because these cards that collectors are buying up for crazy money are random.. It's like if one collector sees a card that went for crazy money, they will find another auction of the same card and bid crazy money on it thinking that's what the card is worth... It's like that 1990 Fleer Jose Urbe phenomena - where some eBay seller listed a 1990 Fleer Jose Urbe "error" for like $1,999.99 and someone bought it then everyone started paying ridiculous amounts for the card when in reality the card is nothing more than a common - the only truth is that it's an error but an uncorrected error...

Look, I don't want to sound like a ™™™™™™™ but I honestly believe the hobby is being flooded once again by a bunch of yahoos that know nothing about the hobby at all and literally and figuratively believe their investment in any card is a good investment - so they're essentially shooting at fish in a barrel and paying ridiculous amounts of money for common cards.. Unfortunately there are people out there with way too much money on their hands that aren't knowledgeable about the hobby and think they can just buy cards as a long term investment -- and that is true, they can however they're buying the wrong cards because they don't know what they're doing...

IMO, the best investment right now are raw rookies from the 80's. Well any vintage HOF'er rookie is a good investment at the right price but right now raw 80's rookies for some reason are criminally undervalued. Even rookies from the 70's as well.

[30ranfordfan]

What? ugh, smh lol... That card was worth nothing a few years ago - nor do I see it being worth anything a few years down the road... And why Bill Barilko? I mean I'm pretty certain anyone could pick up an authentic vintage low grade Bill Barilko for less than $7 bucks, lol - I have picked up quite a few over the last few years for less than $10 and only then because I collect Hawks, HOF'ers and vintage cards.. Barilko is a pretty obscure player these days, so I wonder why the sudden interest?? If Barilko is booking for $8 then what's the Howe booking for?? $20.00??

I'd love to know what 90-91 Pro Set cards are booking for and who is leading the pack in that set?? I'm certain it's Jagr's rookie, but that set also has a "retired stars" subset with Howe, Sittler, Mikita etc along with the officials subset.. I mean if Barilko's 91-92 is booking for $7 then I can only imagine that Howe's 90-91 Pro Set is booking for $25, lol..

It's almost like junk wax era cards are starting to fall into the "vintage" category or something or at least are starting to be valued similar to pre-80 vintage. I suppose cards from the early 90's technically are "vintage" by definition, however I've always viewed and treated them in their own separate category... Could that be the reason for the spike in junk wax era cards?? I mean unopened junk wax has gone through the roof over the past year. What was once a $5 box of cards for a decade has become a $20+ box of cards overnight... So yea, I suppose if you're shelling out $20 bucks for junk you're going to want a return on your investment and that's causing the spike??

As far as Beckett, well they shouldn't even exist anymore - at least not as a price guide. I don't even know how Beckett comes up with their prices anymore. Obviously before eBay, Beckett claimed they concluded their values based on surveys and hitting the pavement at card shows, however it's clearly obvious that's not how they get their card values - at least not anymore - unless they want to claim their values are based on in person transactions - which would make no sense anyway... I mean I'm kinda thinking that Beckett has been pulling card values out of their butt ever since they became the authority on card values...

Look, I'm just perplexed and fascinated by all of this.. I originally went to school for economics and so I find this trend in junk wax card values very odd and unprovoked just due to the fact that the supply is way more than the demand could ever be - and I would say there should be some sort of a market correction down the road but that is difficult to forecast considering the amount of money "collectors" have tied up into what would otherwise be considered worthless cards.

But yea, I find this spike in junk wax very interesting because even if you start some of these cards off at a penny on eBay it seems the auctions all end up in the same place - so it's not like there is price fixing going on or collusion. The only explanation I can conclude is that the hobby has gained hundreds of thousands of members overnight...

Read the first couple of posts again.....

I'm going to assume you're not familiar with the song "50 Mission Cap" by The Tragically Hip. It's a song about the story of Bill Barilko.

Most of the lyrics have to do with Barilko, his cup winning goal, disappearance, etc. A "50 Mission Cap" has nothing to do with hockey, it was a cap given out to WW2 Bomber Pilots, after they completed 50 bombing missions.

One line in the song (which is sung more than once) is "I stole this from a hockey card, I keep tucked up under". According to the song, the card is tucked up under his 50 Mission Cap. The hockey card that inspired the Barilko lyrics, and he was singing about, is the 1991-92 Pro Set card.

The Pro Set Barilko has little value as a hockey collectible. The value is to Tragically Hip fans. People paying $10 or $20 for these are not typical hockey card collectors... they're music fans that have decided they want to own this particular hockey card.

If you're not familiar with the Tragically Hip, or how popular they were at their peak in Canada, the best comparison I can come up with is to picture how popular Bruce Springsteen was at the height of his popularity, in the state of New Jersey. Then double it.

Their album sales make them a Canadian version of Michael Jackson (in terms of sales volume. The music isn't similar at all).

If you look at Jackson's four main albums, he went 9x Platinum, 33x Platinum, 10x Platinum, and 8x Platinum (that's Off The Wall, Thriller, Bad, Dangerous). 1 Platinum = 1 Million Copies sold, worldwide.

The Hip, of course, never sold near that number of albums.... but their first three albums all broke 1 million copies (Diamond, in Canada) and their next two went to 6x & 5x Platinum (1 Platinum = 100k sold in Canada).

Thriller (of course) blows all of Jackson's other albums out of the water.... but each of the The Hip's first three albums have sold more than one tenth the copies of Jackson's other albums, in a country with one tenth of the popular.... and almost no sales outside of Canada.

I'm not trying to turn this into a Michael Jackson (or Bruce Springsteen) conversation, I'm just trying to illustrate how big that band has been in Canada..... because I would argue that it's more remarkable to have sold 1 million copies of an album to Canadians.... by a band that is not a big name anywhere else in the world.... than it was to sell 10 million copies of an album globally, but an international superstar.


Just rounding things back to the card (instead of album sales): It's music fans buying a card, not card collectors chasing copies. The Hip were a HUGE act in this country, and continue to be popular even after Gord Downie's (the lead singer / song writer) death a couple of years ago.

Heck, we can use his death to illustrate how big the band was. He announces that he's got a brain tumor, and will die from it. Can't be saved. They're going to do one last tour. The scalping that went on, for tickets, because such a national issue - that scaping was address in the House of Commons..... and their final show (in Kingston, Ontario.... where they were all from) was broadcast on the CBC, and I'm reasonably certain is the most watch non-Sporting even in the CBC's history.

[cjb]

yea savard you're right, that's what i've been doing now. Loving buying those raw 80's cards.

Seems like most of the overpriced cards are for PSA 10 graded cards from this era.

Remember the junk wax era? Welcome to the junk slab era!

[Savard18]

yea savard you're right, that's what i've been doing now. Loving buying those raw 80's cards.

Seems like most of the overpriced cards are for PSA 10 graded cards from this era.

Remember the junk wax era? Welcome to the junk slab era!

Yes, absolutely..

It's nuts. The population reports on some of these modern cards and even junk wax era cards in PSA 9 or 10 is absolutely stunning yet collectors are still shelling out good money for PSA 9's and 10's.. I mean look, when there are 8,000 PSA 10's out there then that card certainly isn't "rare" by any means - as a matter of fact PSA 10's become the standard - not the exception..

If someone wants to invest in graded cards or get raw cards graded then find cards with low pops. I mean I haven't gotten anything graded in a while because of how insane and overloaded the grading system has been over the last year, however I have been targeting and buying high grade raw vintage cards with low pop reports that I do plan on having graded eventually...

But yea, you're absolutely right - there is going to be a "junk slab era" - especially with modern cards. I mean yes I expect a pack fresh modern card to be a PSA 10 out of the pack and I don't need PSA to confirm it - so why the heck should I waste $20-25 bucks to ensure Upper Deck's quality control department is doing it's job?? if it's not a PSA 10 then it's Upper Decks fault not mine, lol.

I mean I get it when it comes to high value cards - it's more about confirming the authenticity of the card than the grade - but not base cards or insert cards unless they're super scarce.

Obviously having vintage cards graded pre-junk wax era is an entirely different situation because you can't expect cards from that era to be gem-mt 10's out of the pack because collecting "mint cards" really wasn't a "thing" like it is now so Topps/OPC had lesser quality control standards... I don't know how old you are but back in the early 90's "grade" was pretty subjective or based on flimsy criteria to say the least, lol.. I mean back then a "mint card" depended on what card you were comparing the other card to - and even then cards that would be a PSA 6 or 7 today were valued the same as a PSA 9 or 10 would be. So there was a lot of leeway there.. If a flaw wasn't noticeable or barely noticeable then it didn't exist, lol... Heck, gum stains were often overlooked unless the stain was profound, same with centering and even corners - the two "big flaws" were surface and creases. If the card was clean, crease free and had 30/70 centering but slightly rounded corners and wear on the edges - that was a "mint" card 30 years ago but today it would grade a PSA 6...

Of course that's why if collectors are going to have cards graded for investment purposes collectors should stick to cards pre-1990, and even then try to find raw cards with low populations - not just in high grade but in general - and have them graded if you think they will grade high enough.. I mean at least when it comes to vintage - high grade cards are the exception not the rule or standard unlike modern cards.

So yes I'll say within 5 years there will be a "junk slab era" just due to the amount of cards being graded and what they're graded at.

[doniceage]

The problem with most of the junk is you have to be able to store it. When you have issues storing it time to throw stuff away.


DON

[cjb]

I never saw the point of grading or overpaying for modern graded cards.

Obviously the majority of these cards are 9's and 10's and I don't think faking is a huge problem these days like it was in the past (although i might be wrong)

[odjickfan]

yea savard you're right, that's what i've been doing now. Loving buying those raw 80's cards.

Seems like most of the overpriced cards are for PSA 10 graded cards from this era.

Remember the junk wax era? Welcome to the junk slab era!

I slowly started growing a collection of raw 80s rookies in the past year. Guys like Chelios, Hull, Stastny, ... Affordable and fun!