2021 Panini Prizm Draft Picks Football Hobby Box break values?

[crock77]

Thanks again for the responses in my first thread, Getting back into collecting.

For fun, I've decided to buy one hobby box a year and see what I get. National Treasures and the other super high end boxes are way out of my price range. I went with a Prizm Draft Picks hobby box (5 autos, etc.). The break was a lot of fun and I'm excited to see what may return value over the years. That said, it's not clear to me what I have that stands out right now.

Looking at the list on The Cardboard Connection, I assume value goes up based on the player and rarity of the card. For example, a Blue Ice Ja'Marr Chase is worth more than a base Ja'Marr Chase. Another example, a Crusades Trey Lance is worth more than a base Trey Lance. Is that correct?

PRIZMS PARALLELS:
Blue Circles
Blue Pulsar
Gold Ice
Gold Pulsar
Green
Green Wave
Orange Ice
Purple Wave
Red Circles
Red Ice
Red Pulsar
Red/White/Blue
Ruby Wave
Silver
White Sparkle
Red #/299
Blue Wave #/249
Blue #/199
Purple Ice #/149
Blue Ice #/99
Orange Wave #/75
Purple #/75
Purple Circles #/50
Orange Pulsar #/49
Green Pulsar #/25
Mojo #/25
Purple Pulsar #/25
Pink Circles #/20
Blue Shimmer #/13
Gold #/10
Black Gold #/5
Neon Green Circles #/5
Black 1/1

[doniceage]

Well you are correct in a sense.

I assume value goes up based on the player and rarity of the card. For example, a Blue Ice Ja'Marr Chase is worth more than a base Ja'Marr Chase. Another example, a Crusades Trey Lance is worth more than a base Trey Lance. Is that correct?

In your first example a blue ice variation will be worth more than the base as they are both rookie cards. So the rarer they get the more value they will hold.

Now with your next example in the Trey Lance crusade and a base card (which is a rookie card) would not hold true. As a crusade is a insert and not a true rookie card. So if he became a collected player the rookie base card will always book more even though the crusade is a insert.

Have any other questions feel free to ask.
@crock77

DON

[jplcom]

To add additional color to @doniceage's excellent explanation. Yes, a rarer parallel usually means a more valuable card but it's not always the case in the market place. Some people will pay a premium if the parallel complements the player team colors well. For example a Trey Lance in a college uniform, collector's will like a green or yellow parallel more than a red or orange. I've seen lower print run Patrick Mahomes rookies go for less on green parallels vs red parallels even when the print run on the red is higher #AnecdotalEvidence. Another one to consider is that some collectors prefer the basic silver parallel over the different color parallels. That can drive values up as well even if the silver is unnumbered.

The Crusades card you mention is a subset of the main set. The base set is 1-160, Crusades are 161-180, and All American is 181-200 Historically when looking at the Beckett price guide, those command about half than the base card does. Inserts such as Color Blast or On Campus will typically be numbered starting at 1 again or be some sort of acronym of the set and player name. An On Campus Justin Fields might be "numbered" OC-JF for example. Panini used to do that with all their inserts which is annoying to no end if you don't have a checklist handy. Inserts scarcity (or perceived scarcity) could lead them to being worth more than the base set card. The Color Blast cards for example average 1:10 cases, even unnumbered they are significantly short printed and will have a fairly high value.

Welcome back to the madness and enjoy the collecting journey!

[doniceage]

To add additional color to @doniceage's excellent explanation. Yes, a rarer parallel usually means a more valuable card but it's not always the case in the market place. Some people will pay a premium if the parallel complements the player team colors well. For example a Trey Lance in a college uniform, collector's will like a green or yellow parallel more than a red or orange. I've seen lower print run Patrick Mahomes rookies go for less on green parallels vs red parallels even when the print run on the red is higher #AnecdotalEvidence. Another one to consider is that some collectors prefer the basic silver parallel over the different color parallels. That can drive values up as well even if the silver is unnumbered.

The Crusades card you mention is a subset of the main set. The base set is 1-160, Crusades are 161-180, and All American is 181-200 Historically when looking at the Beckett price guide, those command about half than the base card does. Inserts such as Color Blast or On Campus will typically be numbered starting at 1 again or be some sort of acronym of the set and player name. An On Campus Justin Fields might be "numbered" OC-JF for example. Panini used to do that with all their inserts which is annoying to no end if you don't have a checklist handy. Inserts scarcity (or perceived scarcity) could lead them to being worth more than the base set card. The Color Blast cards for example average 1:10 cases, even unnumbered they are significantly short printed and will have a fairly high value.

Welcome back to the madness and enjoy the collecting journey!

@jplcom

Thanks for sharing more. As you mentioned in some instances there is no reason to the madness (sometimes).

DOn

[crock77]

Thanks @doniceage and @jplcom. Madness indeed! But fun as hell. Really appreciate the info, very helpful. I do have a few more questions.

1. I see penny sleeves and top loaders are a common way to store cards. For a really premium pull, would you recommend one-touch cases?

2. Is it known how many cases/boxes Panini produces of their card lines? Curious what the overall pool looks like for the sets that aren't numbered.

3. When does Beckett start listing values for 2021 sets?

4. What is the grading process like? I've read that PSA has a huge backlog of items to grade. I also see Beckett has gotten into the mix. Any insights or tips to share? (For the future 1/1 pull )

Thanks gents!

[jplcom]

1. I see penny sleeves and top loaders are a common way to store cards. For a really premium pull, would you recommend one-touch cases?
A: I don't usually use one-touch cases unless I'm displaying the card. My premium cards go into penny sleeve and semi-rigid cases, then into a sturdy box. Anything that's in a semi-rigid in my collection are ones that I could potentially get graded and that's how the big companies want anyways. You'll see them called Card Savers too. But that's how I roll ;)


2. Is it known how many cases/boxes Panini produces of their card lines? Curious what the overall pool looks like for the sets that aren't numbered.
A: They keep that secret on purpose. You'll note that they no longer show the odds of pulling any one kind of parallel, insert, hit, etc. They'll say "16 inserts per box" but no way to tell how much more rare any one insert is to another. They'll also have exclusive parallels for different box configurations (Target blasters get red circle parallels, Walmart blasters get blue circle parallels, Walmart fat backs get blue wave parallels, H2 gets orange mojo, etc etc). I suspect that they stopped all the brakes and they are printing A TON and they'll disguise how much is actually out there by having 40+ parallels in say a Prizm brand. I suspect years down the road cards from this era will have somewhat depressed prices due to quantity available. It'll take some time as people have sunk money into these products and want to get as much as possible out of it.


3. When does Beckett start listing values for 2021 sets?
A: I think it's usually 3-4 weeks. I think part of their challenge is that they don't always get complete or timely checklists from Panini. The other part is they'll say they are gathering market data but really I don't see why they need to for most cards. See below for my large explanation/speculation/rant*.


4. What is the grading process like? I've read that PSA has a huge backlog of items to grade. I also see Beckett has gotten into the mix. Any insights or tips to share? (For the future 1/1 pull )
A: SUPER expensive and time consuming compared to pre-2020.

Professional Sports Authenticator - PSA - is the oldest company in the game and in many corners the most well regarded. I think they started in the early 90s. On average they'll deliver the best resale bang for your buck.
Beckett Grading Services - BGS - has been grading cards since the late 90s. Searching for "PSA vs BGS" will yield endless debate over the two companies.
Sportscard Guaranty Corporation - SGC - was a good name in the industry for a long time that specialized in pre-WW2 cards, though they grade all cards.
Certified Sports Guaranty is another one, CSG. They are new to card grading but they have for a long time graded coins and other collectibles so they are not a fly by night operation. They also poached a couple of graders from BGS so they've got some quality on staff. Personally I don't like how "chunky" their flip is but that's an aesthetic. I think given their background they will one day be part of the PSA/BGS/SGC stable in terms of trust.
Hybrid Grading Approach, HGA, has interesting looking flips but they are a newcomer to the game and unknown how trusted they are compared to PSA/BGS.

All the other ones I haven't listed I would personally stay away from. If someone asked me what I'd spend my money on, it would be PSA for resale, BGS for personal collection, and SGC for resale of pre-WW2 cards. I would try CSG on some lower value cards to see how I like them. HGA, same story, I would try them out to see how I like them but CSG and HGA I wouldn't expect good resale returns on them as compared to PSA or BGS.

Opinion time: I prefer BGS. I grew up reading the monthly magazines, I've written in to the "readers write" (and been published!). I've been active on the message boards there since the late 00's and lurked since the late 90's. When BGS came out, I thought the flip (the header with information on the card and grade) looked cooler with a gold, silver, or white instead of the plain paper and red border of PSA. BGS also started with subgrades, showing individual grades on centering, corners, edges, and surface. They also assign a grade on the quality of an autograph. I have multiple registries setup. They also used to be slightly cheaper than PSA. However with how expensive they are now and the historically poor communication on when cards get graded and now the lethally long lead-times have sidelined my grading projects. One day I hope to return and specifically BGS but it'll be a long time.


*bonus rant time! I don't think it's all that difficult to price most cards quickly these days. I'll preface all values, prices, etc as theoretical book values. Discussions on "actual value based on sales" I'll leave out for now. Let's use Score as an example. Each year Panini releases a 400-odd card set, each year a large cast of rookies with a bigger checklist of veterans. What's the difference between a 2020 and 2021 Patrick Mahomes card, really? Aside from design, nothing. If a 2020 Score Mahomes card is valued at say $3, it's reasonable to think that the 2021 edition will settle at $3. Maybe it starts off at $5 as people are willing to pay more to fill sets or get the newest card but as time goes by, a 2019, 2020, 2021 Score base card is the same. Panini prints a bunch of it. Same goes for ALL veterans, stars, commons, etc. So when new product comes out for a given set, Beckett can easily set 2021 prices to equate 2020 or perhaps for the first 1-2 months, give 2021 a 10% bump is values, then bring them back as the product gets cold.

As for rookies, I look for examples. Joe Burrow was #1 overall pick and highly touted when he first came out. I think Trevor Lawrence would be valued the same as Burrow, so I'd consider what Burrow was valued at last year the same as what Lawrence is valued at this year. Now of course we've had a full year of Burrows in sets, saw him play, get injured, etc. So a 2020 Score Burrow vs a 2021 Score Lawrence today on 7/7/2021, I think Lawrence would book for more. But Burrow's value on 7/7/2020? The same as Lawrence today. So I look for similar same examples. Wilson, Lance, Fields would fall into what Herbert was doing at this time last year. Same for other position players at similar draft spots. It's not meant to be a hard and fast rule, but gives you a close value. Easy for Beckett to follow a similar rule to start pricing, then massage the data with any outliers.

This strategy can be used to futurecast sets not released yet. Eventually when Panini Prizm (not the Draft Picks version) comes out, I'd think Lawrence will book for similar to what Burrow early on or Herbert midseason were going for last year.

[crock77]

Amazing @jplcom. Really appreciate the answers here. Learning a ton!

1. I'll take a look at the Card Savers. What's the best way to store regular cards? Study cardboard boxes?

2. That makes sense based on what I saw in my break. Good to know.

3. I used to read Beckett too. I'll be sure to pick up a football copy in the coming weeks to see what 2021 looks like to start.

4. Great tips here. Hope to have some to send it down the road!

Thanks again for all the great info. I'm sure I'll be back with more questions. :)

[doniceage]

I use 3200 count boxes with low value stuff in soft sleeves only. I put all game used auto's in toploaders.

Hey, only way to learn is to ask questions. Glad to help out.

DON
@crock77

[jplcom]

@crock77 oh yeah no worries! I use a variety of 1-row, 2-row, and 5-row boxes.

https://www.bcwsupplies.com/5000-car...e-box-full-lid

https://www.bcwsupplies.com/graded-card-shoe-box

There's other brands outside of BCW. I used to go to my local card shop and pick up whatever boxes they had there, they'd be premade and I could toss them in my trunk. If you are storing cards in cases already, then really anything works. Old copier paper boxes, shoe boxes, buy a box of semi-rigid cases then use the box as a box :).

[doniceage]

Chris,
If you are going to be in the hobby for some time I buy a bulk of whatever you want to use. My purchases for 4 rows:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/38104573216...sAAOSwZqZaBMHr

Jplcom is saying he uses various rows of boxes. I guess for me it just nice for each box to fit perfectly on the next box so you can stack them. I used to have 5 rows in the past but they are very heavy and when mixed with 4 rows did not stack well. Hence, why I say find something and stick with whatever works. 2 rows could be nice as well but if you ever get a lot of base your going to want to probably do something bigger.

DON