Edmonton Oilers: What would a dream off season look like?

[30ranfordfan]

I don't recall if I posted one of these threads last year or not, but I know I have in the past. I will mention that Ken Holland actually signed the two UFAs I most wanted to see last year (Barrie, Turris). One worked out great, the other did not.

What do I think the Oilers need to do? Mainly, they need to inject another "upper middle class" player into the top 6, they need to improve their depth (bottom 6 has to get better). The goaltending needs an upgrade (though I don't think it's the reason why they lost to Winnipeg). The team needs to get a little more tough, and a little more experienced. I want to see guys brought in that have gone deep in the playoffs before. Winners.

The Oilers have two of the best players in the world (I would argue THE best two). This is not the time to worry about developing players that will help the club in 4 or 5 years. They should be in win now mode.


I would have waited until after the finals are over to post this, but with RNH re-upping (Devin Shore did a little while ago too) I need to post this before Ken Holland takes away all of my flexibility :)

How realistic will any of this be? I'm not exactly going to be making EA Sports type moves. Trying to keep things realistic. Any signings (of course) aren't that easy. Do they really want to come to Edmonton? As far as the $$$ I attach to players - we'll find out very soon how realistic my numbers are. I'm mostly curious what people think of the trades I suggest. Am I being realistic, or out to lunch? Edmonton also has a glut of defensive prospects who are seem to be legit NHLers (not necessarily top line players) and will need roster spots in the coming years, or they risk losing them for nothing. Time to move out some of that surplus, for what they need now.

Anyway, here goes.

First up, Edmonton has to deal with their own free agents:

RNH was signed to an 8 year, 5.125 per season deal.
Devin Shore was brought back for 2 years, at 850k per season.
Joakim Nygaard has already left, and signed in Europe.
Gatean Haas has already left, and signed in Europe.

The remaining?
I would let Dominik Kahun walk
I would let Alex Chiasson walk
I would let Slater Koekkoek walk.
Resign Kailer Yamamoto (RFA) for two years, at 2.5 million per. Classic bridge deal.
Resign Jujhar Khaira (RFA) for two years, at 1.5 million per.
Resign Mike Smith (UFA) for 1 year, 1.5 million.
Let Tyson Barrie walk (I'd love to keep him, but I believe he's priced himself out of Edmonton).
Resign Adam Larsson (UFA) to a 4 year deal, paying 3.25 million per.
Resign Dimitri Kulikov (UFA) to a 1 year / 1m deal.

Next is the trades.....

Zack Kassian to Boston, for Jake deBrusk.

Bruins save a bit on the cap, get a player who has performed well in the past. Oilers take a guy that looks like he needs a change of scenery after a season that often saw him scratched.

Then give Jake deBrusk his change of scenery elsewhere. Send deBrusk, prospect Dmitri Samorukov (D) to Seattle, in exchange for Seattle agreeing to pick James Neal in the expansion draft.

Samorukov is a player that won't be available to them, but is considered an excellent prospect. He was a 3rd round pick in 2017, was very good in the AHL in 2019-20, and again in the KHL in 2020-21. He's considered "NHL ready" by most prognosticators. deBrusk would be an attractive player to have. Neal may not be someone that Seattle necessarily wants, but they'll need to get to the cap floor, and having a couple of Vets on the team is a good thing. My thinking is that deBrusk is a more attractive asset than Kassian for Seattle - but I'm essentially saying give away Kassian & Samorukov, to free up both Kassian & Neal's cap space.

Oilers trade Ethan Bear, Tyler Benson, Kyle Turris, and a 2022 4th round pick to the Detroit Red Wings for RFA Tyler Bertuzzi, then sign Bertuzzi to a 3 year deal, worth $10m ($3.333m is more than double what he made last year; a season when he was largely injured. This deal would eat up the first year of his UFA eligibility).

The Red Wings get a defenceman that will instantly move into their top 4, maybe even top 2. He's younger, and more controllable than Bertuzzi. They also get Benson, a former 2nd round pick, who was among the top scorers in the AHL last year. They take Turris off the Oilers hands (he can be a 4th liner in DET, making only $1.65m) and get a mid round pick next year. The Oilers get a forward who should add some much needed jam to the top 6... who comes with decent speed, and hands.

Oilers trade their 2021 1st, 2022 2nd, Philip Broberg, Mikka Kostkinen, and Cooper Marody to the Columbus Blue Jacks for Elvis Merzlikins and Seth Jones. This may not be enough to get that pair of players, but considering they're both only 1 season away from hitting UFA status - I think a package like this might be close to the right value. I'll also mention that I'd be happy with Joonas Korpisalo instead of Merzlikins - but I'm assuming the Jackets would rather deal the guy making 4 million, instead of 2.6 million, in a deal like this.

The Jackets get an extra 1st round pick this year, and a 2nd rounder next year. They get a recent 1st round pick (Broberg, D) and the guy who led the AHL in scoring this past season (Marody). They take Kostkinen and the 1 year left on his deal to get the trade done. The Oilers get a new goalie, and another horse on defense. They might have them each for just a single season, but perhaps the prospect of being on a team with his brother (and winning) will get Seth Jones to want to stay.

UFAs from other teams:
I'd be going after these four players. All of them are winners. All of them would improve Edmonton's depth. All of them help make the Oilers a contender next year:

Corey Perry, 1 year, 1m
Ryan Getzlaf, 2 years, 2m per
Tyler Bozak, 1 year, 1.5m
Alex Ovechkin 3 years, 7.5m per

(Before anyone else says it: No, I don't really believe Ovechkin will leave Washington, but I can dream!)

Why do these guys sign with the Oilers? They're joining a team with McDavid & Draisaitl. They help round out a roster and make it a contender. Getzlaf & Perry get to reunite, and take another shot at winning. Ovechkin? If he at least entertains the idea of leaving Washington - joining an Oilers squad that would certainly be a contender with him would be attractive. If he wants to push for the all time goals record, playing with Connor McDavid would certainly enhance his chances of doing it.


What does this leave for a lineup?

Ovechkin / McDavid /Puljarvi
RNH / Draisaitl / Bertuzzi
Archibald / Bozak / Yammamoto
Perry / Getzlaf / Khaira

Nurse / S. Jones
Larsson / Kleffbom
Kulikov / Bouchard

Smith
Merzlikins

The extras on the roster would likely be Devin Shore, Caleb Jones, and Kris Russel - Ryan McLeod, William Lagesson, and Alex Stalock would all be in the mix for those extra spots too (but likely AHL to start the season).

If I did my Cap math correctly, the total cap hit for the Oilers would be just a hair under $80m (that includes the buyout of Andre Sekera, and retrained salary on Milan Lucic). They'd have about 1.8m in wiggle room.

[Fred Bear]

The first thing the Oilers should do is cut Kenny Holland loose. I say that as a Wings fan who rode the wave of Holland's useful years. The game of hockey has moved on from where it was in the mid-to-late 90s, though, and the team gets better with better upper management. I won't say the RNH-deal was bad, but I don't think Edmonton is going to be 'happy' in 6-8 years paying a 34-36 yr-old RNH $5M per season and I guarantee Kenny Holland won't be around to take the heat... A 3-yr deal at $6M would've given Edmonton way more flexibility and shown that RNH was still part of the 'core'.

I agree with most of your assessments, though. The Oilers need to bring in some Cup experience (1-2 guys with deep playoff experience or rings), a top-4 defenseman, a top-6 forward, and a goaltender. I'm not sure if they have the space or the pieces to address everything this off-season. You definitely pieced together a dream scenario, but, in my opinion, if Bertuzzi is willing to sign a 3-yr contract for $10M, Yzerman would be an idiot to trade him for that package. I'm seeing rumors in the $4-4.5M per season for 4+ years which isn't unrealistic for the Wings given their current cap space.

Like you said, I don't think Ovi leaves Washington, but, if he does, I think it takes bigger money or a bigger opportunity. Edmonton would surely give him the opportunity to make the run for Gretzky, but at your estimated $7.5M, that's a pretty big discount from where he sits now. At that money, would Edmonton really be his first choice?

It's a cool exercise, though, and now when Edmonton fires Holland, you can step right in!

[RGM81]

It's fun to have fun, and you've really embraced the antithesis of "nothing changes if nothing changes," here. This would be one of the most dramatic overhauls of a roster in recent memory.

I do believe that the Oilers need to make some personnel moves...and it really does start in goal. They cannot continue to operate with either of Smith and/or Koskinen. They just can't. It's not easy to make deals for good goalies. It came up in my FB Memories today that #otd in 2013, the Canucks dealt Cory Schneider to the New Jersey Devils (leading to one of Luongo's all-time great tweets) - it's wild how that all unfolded as Schneider never really lived up to expectations. Maybe they reach out to get a younger goalie and someone a little more established to mentor him and carry the load if needed. Going to be an interesting market this summer.

Will Klefbom be back fully healthy this year? Always liked him and his offence.

[30ranfordfan]

The first thing the Oilers should do is cut Kenny Holland loose. I say that as a Wings fan who rode the wave of Holland's useful years. The game of hockey has moved on from where it was in the mid-to-late 90s, though, and the team gets better with better upper management. I won't say the RNH-deal was bad, but I don't think Edmonton is going to be 'happy' in 6-8 years paying a 34-36 yr-old RNH $5M per season and I guarantee Kenny Holland won't be around to take the heat... A 3-yr deal at $6M would've given Edmonton way more flexibility and shown that RNH was still part of the 'core'.

I agree with most of your assessments, though. The Oilers need to bring in some Cup experience (1-2 guys with deep playoff experience or rings), a top-4 defenseman, a top-6 forward, and a goaltender. I'm not sure if they have the space or the pieces to address everything this off-season. You definitely pieced together a dream scenario, but, in my opinion, if Bertuzzi is willing to sign a 3-yr contract for $10M, Yzerman would be an idiot to trade him for that package. I'm seeing rumors in the $4-4.5M per season for 4+ years which isn't unrealistic for the Wings given their current cap space.

Like you said, I don't think Ovi leaves Washington, but, if he does, I think it takes bigger money or a bigger opportunity. Edmonton would surely give him the opportunity to make the run for Gretzky, but at your estimated $7.5M, that's a pretty big discount from where he sits now. At that money, would Edmonton really be his first choice?

It's a cool exercise, though, and now when Edmonton fires Holland, you can step right in!

Holland, I'm still not sure what to think. I will say this though....... I always thought he was overrated in Detroit. He was given a ton of credit for drafting Superstars in the late rounds. There is no doubt that Zetterberg & Datsuyk panned out to be a couple of the best picks in history (when you consider the player, and where they were selected) - but I have never considered those to be genius moves. Quite frankly, if Ken Holland believed those guys would turn into Superstars - he would have picked them a lot earlier. Of course you do have to give him some credit: He hired good scouts, and he listened to them. He took late round fliers on guys that his scout(s) liked, another teams weren't interested in.

I also think that GMs and Coaches have a much easier time looking good, when they have one of the greatest players of all time on the team. Niklas Lidstrom made everyone's job easier.

I can't deny the success the Red Wings had, but a lot of the late 90s / early 00s success also stemmed from having an owner who was willing to spend more than most other clubs. I don't think it took a brilliant man to realize that signing future HOFers would be a good idea.

Of course there's plenty of room to screw things like that up, even if you've got great players & a big budget - and Holland didn't do that. He should get a lot of praise.

Of course once we got more than a few years into the Cap era, Detroit started on a downward trend, and Holland was never able to recover.

Major moves that he's made so far? Even thought I think James Neal is a player they should spend assets to get rid of, trading him for Lucic was a really good move. He's paid way too much for Zach Kassian. He was able to convince Puljarvvi to come back to North America. The RNH contract is the first real big signing he's made. He paid too much for a short-term rental in Andrea Athanisou, but I believe he intended to keep him, until the cap went flat. I think overall he's done okay, but he hasn't been as aggressive as I'd like. Where McDavid & Draisaitl are in their careers: There is no reason the Oilers should be worrying about picks, and players that will be good for them in 5 years.

The RNH contract - is it longer than I would have liked to have seen? Yes. Do I think it's a bad deal? No. Here's my thinking:

I do expect for the final 3 years (or so) it's unreasonable to think Nuge will be playing at the same level he is today. For the first 4 or 5 years? I think it's a safe bet he'll continue to be the player that we've seen. The Oilers locked him up at a reduced salary. $5.125m per season does seem like a bargain based on his current level of play. 5 years from now, I expect a low $5s contract to be what a mid-high $3s contract does to a team's cap hit today..... essentially that in 2026-27, and certainly 2027-28, RNH will be taking up roughly the same percentage of the cap that Zack Kassian does today. On top of that: If the Oilers win a Cup or two in the next 5 years, I don't care if they're overpaying Hopkins after the fact. If they don't win a Cup in the next 5 years - I suspect the team will have been blow up by then anyway.

The only think I'm interested in seeing the Oilers do, is commit to being the best team they possibly can during the prime years of McDavid & Draisaitl, and putting themselves in a position to resign those guys when their current contracts are up in 2025 (LD) and 2026 (CM). I think the RNH contract helps with both of those goals. Obviously a 6 year deal at $5.125 would be better, but I think this 8 year pact is preferable to 6 years at something like $5.75s.


Bertuzzi, I was guessing that 3 years / $10m would get it done - but I appreciate the insight there. After the 2019-20 season I would certainly have said that he was a $4m+ player. The injuries this past season, I don't know what he'll be able to command. The shorter term (3 years) eats up only 1 year of UFA eligibility - so hitting free agency at 29 instead of 30 could be an attractive way to keep his next contract a little bit lower, cap wise. If I were signing him for $4m+ I would definitely want a 4th year (hypothetically, I think the Oilers could absorb a 4 year $17m deal, instead of 3 year $10 - if that's what it took).

Ovechkin - I will be really interested. He's 35 years old, and coming of a deal that paid him $9.5m. I think he's still an elite talent, but at his age - I think he's certainly going to take a pay cut. How big? I don't know. I thought $7.5m / 3 years sounds about right for him, but maybe I'm low balling? I will just say it again though...... I don't really believe he'll leave Washington. I think he'll wait until after the expansion draft to resign.

If he entertains the idea though, I see these as being the things that would attract any player to sign a deal:

1. Opportunity for success (both team & personal. Have to think he wants to win another Cup or two, and wants to score another 165 goals).
2. Money
3. Location (weather? friends & family? privacy?)

Edmonton falls behind almost every other team when it comes to location. Playing with the best player in the world, on a team that should be a contender, is certainly an attractive opportunity. Money? I don't know what he's worth.

If it's simply about money, and Vladimir Putin offers him $20m a season to come home, and finish his career in the KHL - would he take it? If Seattle offered to make him the highest paid player in the league, would he take it? I don't know. I have no idea how much $$$ is a motivating factor for him at this point (while considering that's he going to get paid a large sum, no matter where he plays). He likely signs as a deal that worth between $7m & $9m - and I think that means that most teams could offer a contract in that range, if they get creative around what they do with their cap.

Of course you have to think that Washington provides a top notch location for him, and an opportunity that looks reasonably good - so for another club to pry him away, it's likely got to be a combination of $$$ & a better oppertunity.

[30ranfordfan]

It's fun to have fun, and you've really embraced the antithesis of "nothing changes if nothing changes," here. This would be one of the most dramatic overhauls of a roster in recent memory.

I do believe that the Oilers need to make some personnel moves...and it really does start in goal. They cannot continue to operate with either of Smith and/or Koskinen. They just can't. It's not easy to make deals for good goalies. It came up in my FB Memories today that #otd in 2013, the Canucks dealt Cory Schneider to the New Jersey Devils (leading to one of Luongo's all-time great tweets) - it's wild how that all unfolded as Schneider never really lived up to expectations. Maybe they reach out to get a younger goalie and someone a little more established to mentor him and carry the load if needed. Going to be an interesting market this summer.

Will Klefbom be back fully healthy this year? Always liked him and his offence.

For as big of an overhaul as that seems... I had 7 of 12 forwards as being return players, 5 of 6 D already being in the system, and 1 of the goalies staying the same. All three extras on the roster... regardless of which 3 of those 6 you take... were with the team last year.

Klefbom is supposed to be back. Sounds like they're expecting him to be.... but I really don't know. His injury is what freed up space for Barrie last year. If he's not coming back, then the Oilers need to find another top-4 blueliner.

Goalies, as you said, are a funny thing. To be totally honest, I don't think Koskinen is a bad goalie, I just don't think he's a great one. The team is clearly not confident in front him though, so it's time to move on. His contract is also a problem - but there's only one year left. He'll probably be bought out, rather than traded. The one year remaining thing is what makes me think he could be included in a deal for another player (or two) coming back this way. Not that I suggested it in my initial post - but would the Ducks entertain dealing John Gibson? If yes.... I think Koskinen would have to be part of a trade like that. It offsets the money, and gives them a vet to split time with a younger guy coming up, but only for a year.

Smith had a great season last year, but there is no way to expect he'll duplicate that. I'd be happy to bring him back, but that means you have to move on from Koskinen. It can't be the same pair again.

Give Alex Stalock a crack at it? Maybe. If you're bringing in someone like Gibson, and elect to have Stalock as the backup instead of Smith, I could support that (i.e. change BOTH goalies).

I also have no faith in the idea that Stuart Skinner is ready to come up and be a good NHL goalie. If they go that route, they'll be in trouble.

[30ranfordfan]

Rumor mill is churning, and it sounds like Duncan Keith is trying to engineer his own to trade to Edmonton (wants to be in Western Canada, Oilers would be the team he'd prefer - vs Calgary or Vancouver). Chicago, in turn, is apparently wanting to get Caleb Jones out of Edmonton, to help a trade & extend scenario with his brother Seth - who has told the Blue Jackets he won't be resigning.

I'm wondering if some kind of monster block buster 3 way could happen... keeping in mind the following:

Blue Jackets are rebuilding
Oilers are looking to improve, and get rid of some bad contracts
Chicago wants to move Keith (his salary makes him a negative asset at the age of 28) while landing a big piece in Seth Jones.

What about something like this?

To Columbus:
(EDM) James Neal (5.75 x 2 remaining)
(CHI) Duncan Keith (5.538 x 2 remaining cap hit, but only 3.6m in real salary left)
Edmonton 2021 1st
Chicago 2021 1st
Philip Broberg (EDM D prospect, was a 1st rounder in 2019, 3 years of ELC remaining)
Nicolas Beaudin (CHI D, NHL ready, 2 years of ELC remainging)

To Chicago:
(CLB) Seth Jones (1 year, 5.4m remaining)
(EDM) Caleb Jones (1 year, 850k remaining)
(EDM) Mikka Koskinen. Oilers retain 50% of the salary (1 year, 4.5 remaining)
(EDM) Kyle Turris (1 year, 1.65 remaining)

To Edmonton:
(CLB) Duncan Keith. Jackets retain 50% of his salary & cap hit
(CLB) Elvis Merzlikins (1 year, 4m remaining)
(CHI) Dylan Strome (1 year, 3m remaining)

Blackhawks then buy out Koskien, so both they and Edmonton split a $3m buyout, and each take a 750k cap hit for the next two seasons.
Blackhawks extend Seth & Caleb Jones to deals that makes sense.


Who wins? Everyone.

Blachawks get the best player in the deal (Seth Jones). They get a young blueliner who would be regarded as an upgrade on Beaudin for the Org, and would be a regular in their lineup next season. They unload Keith's contract, along with Strome. They get a cheaper player in Turris to fill Strome's roll (granted, he's not as good) - if he doesn't work out, he can effectively be buried in the minors anyway. Total Cap hit for next season increases by 0.388m, unless you count the cap hit of Nic Beaudin, then it's actually dropping by $475k

Edmonton add a vet 'D with 3 Stanley Cups under his belt. This is the kind of player they can use, so long as they're not paying him big buck or overplaying him. Since Columbus is eating half the cap hit, they get him at a manageable $2.77m per season. They improve their 3C slot with Strome over Turris, and upgrade the goaltending with Merzlikins over Koskinen. They also unload the Neal contract.... but pay dearly for those upgrades: Moving a 1st, one of their best D prospects, and a cheap NHL ready blueliner in Jones. They save 2.23m against the Cap next season, while checking off three boxes on their off season shopping list.

Columbus get four prime assets. Two defenseman that are former 1st round picks, and two 1st round picks for this year. They take on James Neal, but since they're under the Cap Floor right now, that shouldn't be problem. If they want him gone, he can be bought out cheaply after one more season. Retaining half of Keith's salary for two years actually saves them money, if they're going to be close to the floor (1.8m in real salary, 5.538 in Cap hit, over two years). They do lose arguably their best player (Seth Jones) but it sounds like he's leaving after one more season regardless. They move on from a goalie that could very well be taken in the Expansion draft.

[Nickwire]

Last summer I told my friend the Oilers should have taken a run at price. It was the lowest his trade value has ever been plus they just signed allen.. Nugent Hopkins and some other bits to make salary work. The way he played, the oilers would have won the cup

[Fred Bear]

Rumor mill is churning, and it sounds like Duncan Keith is trying to engineer his own to trade to Edmonton (wants to be in Western Canada, Oilers would be the team he'd prefer - vs Calgary or Vancouver). Chicago, in turn, is apparently wanting to get Caleb Jones out of Edmonton, to help a trade & extend scenario with his brother Seth - who has told the Blue Jackets he won't be resigning.

I'm wondering if some kind of monster block buster 3 way could happen... keeping in mind the following:

Blue Jackets are rebuilding
Oilers are looking to improve, and get rid of some bad contracts
Chicago wants to move Keith (his salary makes him a negative asset at the age of 28) while landing a big piece in Seth Jones.

What about something like this?

To Columbus:
(EDM) James Neal (5.75 x 2 remaining)
(CHI) Duncan Keith (5.538 x 2 remaining cap hit, but only 3.6m in real salary left)
Edmonton 2021 1st
Chicago 2021 1st
Philip Broberg (EDM D prospect, was a 1st rounder in 2019, 3 years of ELC remaining)
Nicolas Beaudin (CHI D, NHL ready, 2 years of ELC remainging)

To Chicago:
(CLB) Seth Jones (1 year, 5.4m remaining)
(EDM) Caleb Jones (1 year, 850k remaining)
(EDM) Mikka Koskinen. Oilers retain 50% of the salary (1 year, 4.5 remaining)
(EDM) Kyle Turris (1 year, 1.65 remaining)

To Edmonton:
(CLB) Duncan Keith. Jackets retain 50% of his salary & cap hit
(CLB) Elvis Merzlikins (1 year, 4m remaining)
(CHI) Dylan Strome (1 year, 3m remaining)

Blackhawks then buy out Koskien, so both they and Edmonton split a $3m buyout, and each take a 750k cap hit for the next two seasons.
Blackhawks extend Seth & Caleb Jones to deals that makes sense.


Who wins? Everyone.

Blachawks get the best player in the deal (Seth Jones). They get a young blueliner who would be regarded as an upgrade on Beaudin for the Org, and would be a regular in their lineup next season. They unload Keith's contract, along with Strome. They get a cheaper player in Turris to fill Strome's roll (granted, he's not as good) - if he doesn't work out, he can effectively be buried in the minors anyway. Total Cap hit for next season increases by 0.388m, unless you count the cap hit of Nic Beaudin, then it's actually dropping by $475k

Edmonton add a vet 'D with 3 Stanley Cups under his belt. This is the kind of player they can use, so long as they're not paying him big buck or overplaying him. Since Columbus is eating half the cap hit, they get him at a manageable $2.77m per season. They improve their 3C slot with Strome over Turris, and upgrade the goaltending with Merzlikins over Koskinen. They also unload the Neal contract.... but pay dearly for those upgrades: Moving a 1st, one of their best D prospects, and a cheap NHL ready blueliner in Jones. They save 2.23m against the Cap next season, while checking off three boxes on their off season shopping list.

Columbus get four prime assets. Two defenseman that are former 1st round picks, and two 1st round picks for this year. They take on James Neal, but since they're under the Cap Floor right now, that shouldn't be problem. If they want him gone, he can be bought out cheaply after one more season. Retaining half of Keith's salary for two years actually saves them money, if they're going to be close to the floor (1.8m in real salary, 5.538 in Cap hit, over two years). They do lose arguably their best player (Seth Jones) but it sounds like he's leaving after one more season regardless. They move on from a goalie that could very well be taken in the Expansion draft.

If I'm Chicago, there's really no way I agree to this. An argument can be made for trading Keith and a draft pick for Jones, but I'm not sure Chicago gives up a 1st to make it happen knowing Jones wants out and will be available as an UFA next season. I could see a 2nd or 4th where Chicago has 2 in each round, but probably not their 1st.

So, does Chicago give up a 1st, Beaudin, and Strome (3 first round selections) for Caleb Jones, Kyle Turris, and the opportunity to buy out half of Mikko Koskinen? Like I said, if I'm Chicago's GM, no way.

This deal fixes a lot of holes in Edmonton for very little in way of real assets. You get rid of 3 bad contracts / underperformers along with a 3rd pair defensemen / depth player for a defensive prospect and a late 1st rounder and replace them with a top pair defensemen, a solid young goalie, and the guy taken 2 slots after McDavid in the 2015 draft? I'm not sure God himself could pull off that deal let alone Kenny Holland...

[30ranfordfan]

If I'm Chicago, there's really no way I agree to this. An argument can be made for trading Keith and a draft pick for Jones, but I'm not sure Chicago gives up a 1st to make it happen knowing Jones wants out and will be available as an UFA next season. I could see a 2nd or 4th where Chicago has 2 in each round, but probably not their 1st.

So, does Chicago give up a 1st, Beaudin, and Strome (3 first round selections) for Caleb Jones, Kyle Turris, and the opportunity to buy out half of Mikko Koskinen? Like I said, if I'm Chicago's GM, no way.

This deal fixes a lot of holes in Edmonton for very little in way of real assets. You get rid of 3 bad contracts / underperformers along with a 3rd pair defensemen / depth player for a defensive prospect and a late 1st rounder and replace them with a top pair defensemen, a solid young goalie, and the guy taken 2 slots after McDavid in the 2015 draft? I'm not sure God himself could pull off that deal let alone Kenny Holland...

Regardless of where he goes (if he goes?), and irrespective of this trade... I think in the year 2021, a fair trade for Duncan Keith would be similar to what the Leafs got from Carolina for Patrick Marleau, after a 37 point season: Marleau, a 1st, and a 7th..... for a 6th. Nobody is going to take Duncan Keith in a trade, and give up something for him. He's a negative asset, at this point in his career.... because he makes far more than he's worth.

Word is that Chicago won't take a bad contract back for him, and won't retain salary - if that's the case, I suspect he's not going anywhere..... unless they find a middle team to work with.


If Columbus hangs onto Jones, and then deals him at the deadline - they'll get two or three assets, including a 1st round pick. I would expect the cost to acquire him now, would be slightly higher.

Easy to say "why would you trade a lot for him, if he's going to be a UFA anyway" - but the reason is that you would get him for sure, if you trade for him.... and then you have a chance to work out an extension. If he goes to UFA, there is no telling where he lands. Chicago would have zero control.

If Chicago wants to rid themselves of Keith's contact, without retaining any salary, the cost is going to be a 1st +
If Chicago wants to get Seth Jones via trade, it will cost them a 1st & a couple of other assets.


Beaudin & Strome are recent(ish) 1st round picks - but would either of them be worth a 1st round pick in trade today? I don't think they would be.


Chicago getting both Jones brothers (with extensions) and getting rid of Keith's contract with no retention...... and the cost being only a 1st, and two former 1st rounders... and taking on 750k in dead cap space for two years - I think that's a pretty good deal for them. Of course if you believe Keith is still worth assets (i.e. there is a cost to acquire him, not a cost to get rid of him) or you view Strome as something more than a "middle 6" forward - then I can see my suggestion being too much.

Of course Turris might be seen as a negative asset too, so perhaps "closer to even" if he's pulled from the deal? He comes off as a player that a team would think "I can fix him", he's cheap, easy to burry in the minors if he's no good.... and there's only 1 year left on his deal anyway.

For Edmonton - They're getting rid of two bad deals (Neal, Koski) - but the Turris one, see my comments above. Are they giving up enough? Well, again, I don't believe Keith is a top pairing defenceman. I believe they're doing Chicago a favor by taking him.... but it's manageable if Columbus eats half the salary. Taking Keith should reduce their overall cost in the trade. Caleb Jones, Phil Broberg, and a 1st are all good assets. I would argue that's a better collection of three assets than Strome, Beaudin, and a 1st (though not by a lot, and the Chicago pick is higher). Is Merzlikins worth a lot? He's one year away from UFA, and already makes 4.0m. He's not a game breaker in anyone's eyes (is he a top 10 goalie in the NHL, that will steal you games consistently? Probably not).

Being rid of Neal and Koskinen, without massive buyout penalties, is a bigger add IMO than Keith or Merzlikins.

[Fred Bear]

Regardless of where he goes (if he goes?), and irrespective of this trade... I think in the year 2021, a fair trade for Duncan Keith would be similar to what the Leafs got from Carolina for Patrick Marleau, after a 37 point season: Marleau, a 1st, and a 7th..... for a 6th. Nobody is going to take Duncan Keith in a trade, and give up something for him. He's a negative asset, at this point in his career.... because he makes far more than he's worth.

Word is that Chicago won't take a bad contract back for him, and won't retain salary - if that's the case, I suspect he's not going anywhere..... unless they find a middle team to work with.


If Columbus hangs onto Jones, and then deals him at the deadline - they'll get two or three assets, including a 1st round pick. I would expect the cost to acquire him now, would be slightly higher.

Easy to say "why would you trade a lot for him, if he's going to be a UFA anyway" - but the reason is that you would get him for sure, if you trade for him.... and then you have a chance to work out an extension. If he goes to UFA, there is no telling where he lands. Chicago would have zero control.

If Chicago wants to rid themselves of Keith's contact, without retaining any salary, the cost is going to be a 1st +
If Chicago wants to get Seth Jones via trade, it will cost them a 1st & a couple of other assets.


Beaudin & Strome are recent(ish) 1st round picks - but would either of them be worth a 1st round pick in trade today? I don't think they would be.


Chicago getting both Jones brothers (with extensions) and getting rid of Keith's contract with no retention...... and the cost being only a 1st, and two former 1st rounders... and taking on 750k in dead cap space for two years - I think that's a pretty good deal for them. Of course if you believe Keith is still worth assets (i.e. there is a cost to acquire him, not a cost to get rid of him) or you view Strome as something more than a "middle 6" forward - then I can see my suggestion being too much.

Of course Turris might be seen as a negative asset too, so perhaps "closer to even" if he's pulled from the deal? He comes off as a player that a team would think "I can fix him", he's cheap, easy to burry in the minors if he's no good.... and there's only 1 year left on his deal anyway.

For Edmonton - They're getting rid of two bad deals (Neal, Koski) - but the Turris one, see my comments above. Are they giving up enough? Well, again, I don't believe Keith is a top pairing defenceman. I believe they're doing Chicago a favor by taking him.... but it's manageable if Columbus eats half the salary. Taking Keith should reduce their overall cost in the trade. Caleb Jones, Phil Broberg, and a 1st are all good assets. I would argue that's a better collection of three assets than Strome, Beaudin, and a 1st (though not by a lot, and the Chicago pick is higher). Is Merzlikins worth a lot? He's one year away from UFA, and already makes 4.0m. He's not a game breaker in anyone's eyes (is he a top 10 goalie in the NHL, that will steal you games consistently? Probably not).

Being rid of Neal and Koskinen, without massive buyout penalties, is a bigger add IMO than Keith or Merzlikins.

I'm not as down on Duncan Keith. Dude can still put up minutes as a 37-yr old, at even strength, on the PP and on the PK. His contract is rough, but his actual salary isn't. Do I think he's worth a 1st rounder? No. But do I think Chicago needs to give up multiple assets to move him? No. I think, if anything, they retain 50% of his cap (costing them $0 real dollars) and they have loads of space in a year without real expectations. The upside for Edmonton here is that Keith is exactly the type of player they need in the locker room. He's a stabilizer who has won multiple championships and significant personal hardware. Chicago wants to do right by him at the end of an amazing career, but he doesn't want to hurt the team.

In 2 years, Chicago is also about to open up to a rebuild situation with all the big names coming off contract. Of the players you have going to Chicago in your scenario, Seth Jones is the only I can see them 'wanting' to move forward with. Sure, Keith wants to 'return home', but Strome is only a year removed from a 1/2 pt/game season and Beaudin still has upside as a young player (10 pts in 9 games in AHL last year). So, if I'm evaluating this trade:

To Chicago:
Seth Jones, D
Caleb Jones, D
Mikko Koskinen, G
Kyle Turris, C

Out of Chicago:
Duncan Keith, D
Nicolas Beaudin, D
Dylan Strome, C
2021 1st Round Pick

I don't think Chicago can do this. To use your terminology, Jones, Koskinen, and Turris would all be negative assets for Chicago. The wild card is if they could sign Seth Jones to an extension, but, overall, I think this trade makes Chicago a worse team going into the season. A straight-up buyout of Keith would make more sense and I don't think Chicago saves enough money to make that worthwhile.

The NHL is a business first, fortunately or unfortunately. And, right now, Columbus is in a rough spot with Jones. Yes, if a team can get him on an extension, he's worth more (likely a conditional draft pick), but his comments are that he wants to test the FA waters. No GM is willing to pay big assets for a guy who is going to walk at the end of the year. You're right, his value will peak at the trade deadline when GMs are willing to pay for a rental.

Look at the other two teams as you set this up:

To Columbus:
James Neal, RW
Edmonton 1st Rd Pk 2021
Chicago 1st Rd Pk 2021
Phillip Broberg, D
Nicolas Beaudin, D

Out of Columbus:
Seth Jones, D
Elvis Merzlikins, G

I think this is borderline before Kivlenieks' passing. You won't confuse Merzlikins with Carey Price, as you said, but he's a solid netminder and I think you get a little more for him. This is probably missing a mid-round draft pick or an NHL ready forward prospect (somebody who projects as middle-6).

To Edmonton:
Duncan Keith, D
Elvis Merzlikins, G
Dylan Strome, C

Out of Edmonton:
James Neal, RW
Kyle Turris, C
Mikko Koskinen, G
Caleb Jones, D
Phillip Broberg, D
2021 1st Round Pick

In contrast to the Chicago end, this makes Edmonton a better club immediately and they get even better through the roster subtractions. Maybe Duncan Keith is too old to be a top pair defenseman, but he's still top 4 when healthy and is still an upgrade over a depth guy like Caleb Jones. Merzlikins may not be an every night goalie, but he's a significant upgrade to Koskinen. And, for either Chicago or Edmonton, Strome is likely a mid-6 forward like you said (I think he would be top 6 for several teams), but that's substantially better value than the $7M in healthy scratches James Neal and Kyle Turris, currently represent. The 'cost' of Broberg and a 1st to fix 3 roster holes and eliminate 3 bad contacts is pretty low.

Again, in the business of the NHL, you can't expect other GMs to fix your roster (a Kenny Holland issue during his time in Detroit, too).

In seriousness, I could see something like:

To Edmonton:
Duncan Keith, D
2nd Round in 2021

To Chicago:
Philip Broberg, D
Chicago retains 50% of Keith's cap hit

or swap the 2nd for a 4th and swap Broberg for Evan Bouchard. To me, this helps both teams. Chicago is probably worse near-term, but they give Keith what he wants without sacrificing the well-being of the franchise. And Duncan Keith for $2.7M cap hit ($3.6M total) gives Edmonton some serious leadership which they currently lack at a very reasonable price.

Just my opinion.