Hurricanes tender $6.1M offer sheet to Habs' Kotkaniemi

[30ranfordfan]

@RGM81 - You really wanna give us 3 - 4 1st Rounders for Petty =P

What would Petty take on an offer sheet? 10.276 million per year would only cost 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Cut it down to 8.221 million, and it's just a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (though that would be INSTANTYL matched, I suspect).

Montreal is in a tough spot. Of course KK is worth more than those two picks they'll get back. The swap isn't a good one for MTL. Is KK worth $6.1 million today? No he is not. Do the Habs thing he will be? I would assume so.

I would think that paying him $6.1 million - if you do believe he simply needs time to get there - isn't the biggest problem. The issue is how much does that throw off the team's salary structure. Montreal loves the bridge deal. Play out your ELC, take a two year extension, then sign the long term deal. I'm guessing $6.1 million is all the Habs wanted to pay him for two years (maybe even less).

If they pay him $6.1 now, and qualify him at that next off season - how does that impact the negotiations with other players?

It's also not a lock that he costs them $6.1 long term. He could play out this season, and then sign a 6 year deal at $5m per (or something like that).

He could also ride out next season, and three more after that, simply taking the 1 year qualifying offer each summer. Make a little more than $24 million in the process, then be a UFA at 25. Depending on how much KK wants to bet on himself - he's in a great position salary wise.

[Fred Bear]

What would Petty take on an offer sheet? 10.276 million per year would only cost 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Cut it down to 8.221 million, and it's just a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (though that would be INSTANTYL matched, I suspect).

Montreal is in a tough spot. Of course KK is worth more than those two picks they'll get back. The swap isn't a good one for MTL. Is KK worth $6.1 million today? No he is not. Do the Habs thing he will be? I would assume so.

I would think that paying him $6.1 million - if you do believe he simply needs time to get there - isn't the biggest problem. The issue is how much does that throw off the team's salary structure. Montreal loves the bridge deal. Play out your ELC, take a two year extension, then sign the long term deal. I'm guessing $6.1 million is all the Habs wanted to pay him for two years (maybe even less).

If they pay him $6.1 now, and qualify him at that next off season - how does that impact the negotiations with other players?

It's also not a lock that he costs them $6.1 long term. He could play out this season, and then sign a 6 year deal at $5m per (or something like that).

He could also ride out next season, and three more after that, simply taking the 1 year qualifying offer each summer. Make a little more than $24 million in the process, then be a UFA at 25. Depending on how much KK wants to bet on himself - he's in a great position salary wise.

I agree. If the Habs were to try and offer sheet any of the big names, they'll get burned again. Vancouver will match just about anything for Pettersson and Ottawa will do the same with Tkachuk. A team looking to offer sheet one of those guys would have to come in with numbers bordering on (or fully into) ridiculous territory.

I'm not sure how KK's agent let's the Canadiens off for less than $6.1 for the next 3 years if they do match. That's the minimum they will pay to qualify him AND he will be arbitration eligible, so if he puts up numbers, he's eligible for a raise from there... Why sign for $5M for 6 years when you are 'guaranteed' $6M for at least 2 more seasons?

I think the question for Montreal is just what you pointed to, how does this throw off Bergevin's 'plan'? You've got Suzuki next year and Caulfield and Poehling (if they do something with him) the following year. He's, honestly, left the roster pretty fluid up until now. I think Carolina is going to force his hand on where KK fits. Do you commit now or keep the flexibility?

[30ranfordfan]

I agree. If the Habs were to try and offer sheet any of the big names, they'll get burned again. Vancouver will match just about anything for Pettersson and Ottawa will do the same with Tkachuk. A team looking to offer sheet one of those guys would have to come in with numbers bordering on (or fully into) ridiculous territory.

I'm not sure how KK's agent let's the Canadiens off for less than $6.1 for the next 3 years if they do match. That's the minimum they will pay to qualify him AND he will be arbitration eligible, so if he puts up numbers, he's eligible for a raise from there... Why sign for $5M for 6 years when you are 'guaranteed' $6M for at least 2 more seasons?

I think the question for Montreal is just what you pointed to, how does this throw off Bergevin's 'plan'? You've got Suzuki next year and Caulfield and Poehling (if they do something with him) the following year. He's, honestly, left the roster pretty fluid up until now. I think Carolina is going to force his hand on where KK fits. Do you commit now or keep the flexibility?

Agree very much. For any of the remaining top RFAs: 10.276 million would seem to be the magic number. Can you toss that dollar figure at someone, and have a reasonable chance of the other team not matching?

If Montreal really wanted to do someone dirty, Vancouver is the team you could pick on. Offer Hughes that contract. 10.276 million for one year. I assume that Vancouver would match.

After the Canucks match it, make the same offer to Petterson. Vancouver probably still matches, but having to shell out $20.5m to those two players would hurt. They would (at least) have to think about it.

If they let KK go, there's also a chance that could negotiate themselves into a more favorable deal. Suppose they follow that two-offer sheet plan. Vancouver is painted into a corner, and feels they have no choice but to accept the two 1sts, 2nd, and 3rd. Montreal having two picks in the 2022 1st round might be able to then say "take our two 2022, plus a player". While KK is worth more than the Carolina 1st & 3rd they'll get - would Montreal be getting good value if they effectively traded KK, Paul Byron, and 1st for Petterson and a 3rd? IMO, yes.

Would Minnesota match 10.276 on Kaprizov? Would Ottawa match 8.221 on Tkchuk? There's lots of offer sheet potential out there.

I'm betting Montreal matches..... but if they let him walk, I'm assuming they'll look to deal the pick and add another center somewhere else.

[Fred Bear]

Agree very much. For any of the remaining top RFAs: 10.276 million would seem to be the magic number. Can you toss that dollar figure at someone, and have a reasonable chance of the other team not matching?

If Montreal really wanted to do someone dirty, Vancouver is the team you could pick on. Offer Hughes that contract. 10.276 million for one year. I assume that Vancouver would match.

After the Canucks match it, make the same offer to Petterson. Vancouver probably still matches, but having to shell out $20.5m to those two players would hurt. They would (at least) have to think about it.

If they let KK go, there's also a chance that could negotiate themselves into a more favorable deal. Suppose they follow that two-offer sheet plan. Vancouver is painted into a corner, and feels they have no choice but to accept the two 1sts, 2nd, and 3rd. Montreal having two picks in the 2022 1st round might be able to then say "take our two 2022, plus a player". While KK is worth more than the Carolina 1st & 3rd they'll get - would Montreal be getting good value if they effectively traded KK, Paul Byron, and 1st for Petterson and a 3rd? IMO, yes.

Would Minnesota match 10.276 on Kaprizov? Would Ottawa match 8.221 on Tkchuk? There's lots of offer sheet potential out there.

I'm betting Montreal matches..... but if they let him walk, I'm assuming they'll look to deal the pick and add another center somewhere else.

I like the way you think, lol...

I see one flaw. Q. Hughes isn't eligible for an offer sheet. Even if he was, if you offer Q. Hughes $10.276M for 1 year, Vancouver won't match. You have to remember, it's really a 3 year contract since you have to qualify them the following season. Offer sheets have better potential on longer term overpayments rather than short-term overpayment. If you give Hughes a big number for 1 year, Vancouver will take the picks and let Bergevin eat the contract.

If you offer $10.276M to Pettersson, even for 1 year, it's an easy match for Vancouver, but I don't think Petey signs it with Montreal or anyone else. My guess is Pettersson ends up on a high-dollar bridge (or longer) contract. Q. Hughes will probably be on a more traditional bridge deal.

For the other suggestions, Kaprizov isn't eligible for an offer sheet and Ottawa will match anything Tkachuk gets offered. The Sens need to get to the floor.

I like taking oddball opinions. I'm betting Montreal lets him walk and Bergevin is looking for work before the end of 2021. Montreal can't afford $6M a year while the figure out where KK fits and having that contract on the books is going to create an awkward negotiation with Suzuki (and eventually Caulfield). Bergevin made a play for Aho and it turned out much worse than he probably anticipated. Worst case, in the short term, he's paying $6M for a third line center that he scratched in the playoffs last year. Best case, he 'traded' a #3 pick for a mid-round 1st and 3rd. I don't think Montreal accepts either of those outcomes without consequence...

[30ranfordfan]

I like the way you think, lol...

I see one flaw. Q. Hughes isn't eligible for an offer sheet. Even if he was, if you offer Q. Hughes $10.276M for 1 year, Vancouver won't match. You have to remember, it's really a 3 year contract since you have to qualify them the following season. Offer sheets have better potential on longer term overpayments rather than short-term overpayment. If you give Hughes a big number for 1 year, Vancouver will take the picks and let Bergevin eat the contract.

If you offer $10.276M to Pettersson, even for 1 year, it's an easy match for Vancouver, but I don't think Petey signs it with Montreal or anyone else. My guess is Pettersson ends up on a high-dollar bridge (or longer) contract. Q. Hughes will probably be on a more traditional bridge deal.

For the other suggestions, Kaprizov isn't eligible for an offer sheet and Ottawa will match anything Tkachuk gets offered. The Sens need to get to the floor.

I like taking oddball opinions. I'm betting Montreal lets him walk and Bergevin is looking for work before the end of 2021. Montreal can't afford $6M a year while the figure out where KK fits and having that contract on the books is going to create an awkward negotiation with Suzuki (and eventually Caulfield). Bergevin made a play for Aho and it turned out much worse than he probably anticipated. Worst case, in the short term, he's paying $6M for a third line center that he scratched in the playoffs last year. Best case, he 'traded' a #3 pick for a mid-round 1st and 3rd. I don't think Montreal accepts either of those outcomes without consequence...

What is the criteria that I'm missing on Hughes? Contract is up, he's played 80+ games in the NHL. Why isn't he eligible? Kaprizov, you're right. Not enough games played.

I think there are plenty of ways for Montreal to get creative here.... this doesn't have to end in disaster for them.

[mikecole141]

What is the criteria that I'm missing on Hughes? Contract is up, he's played 80+ games in the NHL. Why isn't he eligible? Kaprizov, you're right. Not enough games played.

I think there are plenty of ways for Montreal to get creative here.... this doesn't have to end in disaster for them.

Hughes is 21 and must have three seasons in order to become a Group 2 RFA, his 5 games at the end of 2018-19 didn't count, if he was 22 he would be eligible for an offer sheet, Hughes can only negotiate with the Canucks at this time. Kotkaniemi while only 21, has played in 3 NHL seasons thus was eligible for Group 2 status and the offer sheet.

As for Montreal's options:

Option 1: Match the offer and do qualifying offers for $6,100,015
Option 2: Match the offer and hope KK is willing to negotiate a longer term deal for a less AAV after next season
Option 3: Match the offer not qualify KK at the end of the season and he becomes a 22year old UFA
Option 4: Walk away and take the picks.

Option 1: The Habs are going to be in Cap trouble, they don't currently have the room to match without taking away ta lot of their LTIR flexability, keeping put Byron on LTIR until January helps but they would then have to clear ~4M in Cap space just for this season, they also cannot trade KK if they sign him until the contract expires and if he is qualified. They then still have to resign Suzuki for next year.

Option 2: This is viable, they have the same problems as above but after one season could make it work. On the other hand how willing is KK & Team going to be to negotiate when they willingly took part in a contract with the $20.00 signing bonus and ended in $15 for Aho's and KK's numbers respectively.

Option 3: This is hard but if they feel they can negotiate a lower AAV extension they can go this route if KK & Team are not willing to talk then not qualifying may be the option they choose.

Option 4: Taking the picks at least gets the club some compensation, if you are going on potential, what will likely be a late 1st & a late 3rd may not seem like enough for a kid with KK's upside potential. If you are going on results like half of the Habs fanbase, a 1st & 3rd and not paying +6M seems like a good return.

Either way, both Carolina and KK are the winners here.

KK is getting paid and for a pro player it is not about how much you are worth, it is what can you get paid.

Carolina is without a shadow of a doubt using a lucky scenario that allows an offer sheet to a player on a Cap strapped team, and they are doing it as payback for the Aho deal that Bergevin tried to be cheeky with by offering 5 years of almost 100% upfront signing bonus money hoping a small market team would not match and the Molson family can payout with the change in their sofa. Dundon doesn't spend money frivolously but he wasn't going to be made a fool as a new owner. Bergevin releasing the statement which challenged Carolina was also not smart and brought a lot of this on himself. Finally Carolina had been asking the Canadiens about KK in trade and Bergevin wasn't willing to talk to them. So if they over pay, the owner is OK with it as a power play, if they don't qualify him next year KK is a UFA, and I think there is a very high possibility that they already have an extension worked out with a lower AAV in return for term.

[RGM81]

KK is getting paid and for a pro player it is not about how much you are worth, it is what can you get paid.

This is exactly it. Dale Weise was talking about the offer sheet on his Habs Tonight podcast yesterday (after an awesome interview with Nick Suzuki) and the players don't hold grudges on these sorts of things like the fans do. "Oh you held the team hostage" blah blah blah no they are not interested in that. Weise said it'll be "hey next time, dinner is on you" because of the fat new contract but that's as far as it goes. They're all in the same PA, they all know there's only a limited window of opportunity to get your paycheque, so yeah, it's about getting yours.

I'll say this, too, there are a lot of Kotkaniemi sale threads happening on various channels.

[RGM81]

Less than 24 hours remain. Pretty quiet, not much emanating from the upper echelons of the Bell Centre in terms of rumblings.

I think the Habs are going to take the draft picks.

[subban7677]

Less than 24 hours remain. Pretty quiet, not much emanating from the upper echelons of the Bell Centre in terms of rumblings.

I think the Habs are going to take the draft picks.

Not without a trade for a 2C in place. I just can't see it.

[subban7677]

*Double post*