2021 NFL Weekly Pick Em Contest

[jplcom]

Week 12 totals are posted. Congrats to @clk823, @Davz13, and @SensSpezza for tying as this week's leaders.







Picking Trends:

1. The Bills were the most popular pick, with 94% of people picking them.
2. No one picked the Giants to win and they did. @clk823 (Raiders) and @SensSpezza (Broncos) were the only picks for these underdogs and were right!
3. The move divided game of the week belongs to the MNF game between the Seahawks (9) and the WFT (8)
4. Picking straight up, SCF went 134-118 for a .531 percentage
5. Long Shots went 1-1 this week.

Yearly Trends:
1. We are 1807-1220 with a .597 percentage
2. Long Shot picks are 35-26 with a .574 percentage*

*Week 9 saw the Chiefs garner 11 easy long-shots over a Rodgerless Packers.

@bigbenjobu @jplcom @rjabreu88 @don sanford @key2win @michigandan @clk823 @CMCFan22 @hobbyfan @pwaldo @cjs-sportscards @Tennelson55 @SensSpezza @jonsportscardz @steelers6 @royer33455 @jaswong785 @bakemeister52 @toddsr @Toe7685 @BogoMojo @51CardDeck @scottkoz20 @opulent jupiter @turnpipe @OriolesFan @Davz13 @BYUFAN

[jplcom]

Week 13 results are posted. Congratulations again to @cjs-sportscards for the top picks this week.





Picking Trends:

1. Easy pickings this week with the Cardinals, Buccaneers, Colts, and Rams all netting players an easy point.
2. Two brave people picked the winless Lions to win, and they did!
3. Fairly straightforward week for picks, the closest contested ones were the Chargers (6) vs Bengals (12) and the Patriots (12) vs Bills (6).
4. Picking straight up, SCF went 164-87 for a .653 percentage
5. Long Shots went 0-5 this week.

Yearly Trends:
1. We are 1971-1307 with a .601 percentage
2. Long Shot picks are 35-31 with a .530 percentage*

*Week 9 saw the Chiefs garner 11 easy long-shots over a Rodgerless Packers.

@bigbenjobu @jplcom @rjabreu88 @don sanford @key2win @michigandan @clk823 @CMCFan22 @hobbyfan @pwaldo @cjs-sportscards @Tennelson55 @SensSpezza @jonsportscardz @steelers6 @royer33455 @jaswong785 @bakemeister52 @toddsr @Toe7685 @BogoMojo @51CardDeck @scottkoz20 @opulent jupiter @turnpipe @OriolesFan @Davz13 @BYUFAN

[jplcom]

Week 14 stats are posted, Congrats once again to @bakemeister52 for grabbing the weekly award.






Picking Trends:

1. Everyone picked the Titans over the Jags, Chargers over the Giants, and Packers over the Bears and made it 3 easy points for everyone
2. The Browns over the Ravens and the Rams over the Cardinals were the least picked games, with 3 people picking the former and 4 people the latter. No surprise, Bake is the only one who picked both the Browns and Rams.
3. Toughest to pick game this week was the TNF with the Steelers (7) against the Vikings (9)
4. Picking straight up, SCF went 168-69 for an impressive .709 percentage
5. Long Shots went 0-7 this week.

Yearly Trends:
1. We are 2139-1376 with a .608 percentage
2. Long Shot picks are 35-38 with a .479 percentage*

*Week 9 saw the Chiefs garner 11 easy long-shots over a Rodgerless Packers.

@bigbenjobu @jplcom @rjabreu88 @don sanford @key2win @michigandan @clk823 @CMCFan22 @hobbyfan @pwaldo @cjs-sportscards @Tennelson55 @SensSpezza @jonsportscardz @steelers6 @royer33455 @jaswong785 @bakemeister52 @toddsr @Toe7685 @BogoMojo @51CardDeck @scottkoz20 @opulent jupiter @turnpipe @OriolesFan @Davz13 @BYUFAN

[jplcom]

And here's your Week 15 results. Congrats again for the players tying this week - @don sanford, @rjabreau88, @steelers6, and @jplcom. Contest is pretty tight so far, will be interesting to see how the final 3 weeks shake out.








Picking Trends:

1. Locks of the week were the Bills, Cowboys, and Rams with all 18 players picking them to win, and they did.
2. Only @hobbyfan was brave enough to pick the Saints over the Buccaneers and he got a point for that. @don sanford was a 2-point conversion away for the same thing for the Ravens upsetting the Packers.
3. Several divided games this week going 10-8, most interesting was the Browns/Raiders game. 10 people picked the Browns, and 8 people picked the Raiders and all 8 were long-shot picks!
4. Picking straight up, SCF went 182-105 for a .634 percentage
5. Long Shots went 8-2 this week.

Yearly Trends:
1. We are 2321-1481 with a .610 percentage
2. Long Shot picks are 43-40 with a .518 percentage*

*Week 9 saw the Chiefs garner 11 easy long-shots over a Rodgerless Packers.
*Week 15 saw the Raiders get 8 easy long-shots over a covid infected Browns..

@bigbenjobu @jplcom @rjabreu88 @don sanford @key2win @michigandan @clk823 @CMCFan22 @hobbyfan @pwaldo @cjs-sportscards @Tennelson55 @SensSpezza @jonsportscardz @steelers6 @royer33455 @jaswong785 @bakemeister52 @toddsr @Toe7685 @BogoMojo @51CardDeck @scottkoz20 @opulent jupiter @turnpipe @OriolesFan @Davz13 @BYUFAN

[jplcom]

I'll have the Week 16 write up later tonight. As for now I updated the OP to reflect the current leaderboard. Good luck everyone, we are closing in on the end! Remember for those who might be out of it you can still win weekly prizes.

[jplcom]

Oops, got behind again. And of all the times to do it, during the home stretch! Anyways, here's your Week 16 results. Congrats to @SensSpezza for taking home the bacon but SO RUDE for not sharing :).








Picking Trends:

1. Everybody was all about the Rams and Buccaneers winning which resulted in +2 for everyone.
2. Unfortunately everyone was ALSO all about the Chargers and every single person missed out on the Texans pulling this one out.
3. Coincidence? Only two people picked Chicago to win this week and even doubled down by making them long shots and they tied for the weekly high score.
4. The Indy/Arizona game was hotly contested, with 9 picking the Colts and 8 picking the Cards.
5. Picking straight up, SCF went 178-106 for a .627 percentage
6. Long Shots went 2-6 this week.

Yearly Trends:
1. We are 2499-1587 with a .612 percentage
2. Long Shot picks are 45-46 with a .495 percentage*

*Week 9 saw the Chiefs garner 11 easy long-shots over a Rodgerless Packers.
*Week 15 saw the Raiders get 8 easy long-shots over a covid infected Browns..

@bigbenjobu @jplcom @rjabreu88 @don sanford @key2win @michigandan @clk823 @CMCFan22 @hobbyfan @pwaldo @cjs-sportscards @Tennelson55 @SensSpezza @jonsportscardz @steelers6 @royer33455 @jaswong785 @bakemeister52 @toddsr @Toe7685 @BogoMojo @51CardDeck @scottkoz20 @opulent jupiter @turnpipe @OriolesFan @Davz13 @BYUFAN

[jplcom]

Week 17 delivered the goods with lots of correct picks and tons of fun with long-shots! Congrats again to @cjs-sportscards @don sanford @jaswong785 and @rjabreau88 for the top scores.






Picking Trends:

1. New England and the Rams were on everyone's nice list and Saint Gooddell brought them presents this year.
2. Unfortunately a lump of coal for everyone but RJ and Royer. Dallas lost to Arizona.
3. The four top players all had long-shots that paid off. The rich got richer here, they were already the scoring leaders this week with 13 then the Bengals, Raiders, and Cardinals gave an extra 2 points.
4. It was mostly consensus picks this week, with only Miami (7) and Tennessee (10) showing the closest margin.
5. Picking straight up, SCF went 203-84 for a whopping .707 percentage
6. Long Shots went 4-7 this week.

Yearly Trends:
1. We are 2702-1671 with a .618 percentage
2. Long Shot picks are 49-53 with a .480 percentage*

*Week 9 saw the Chiefs garner 11 easy long-shots over a Rodgerless Packers.
*Week 15 saw the Raiders get 8 easy long-shots over a covid infected Browns..

@bigbenjobu @jplcom @rjabreu88 @don sanford @key2win @michigandan @clk823 @CMCFan22 @hobbyfan @pwaldo @cjs-sportscards @Tennelson55 @SensSpezza @jonsportscardz @steelers6 @royer33455 @jaswong785 @bakemeister52 @toddsr @Toe7685 @BogoMojo @51CardDeck @scottkoz20 @opulent jupiter @turnpipe @OriolesFan @Davz13 @BYUFAN

[jplcom]

Alright, let's talk scenarios! Sort of like figuring out the playoff picture, but for PIck Em! With 16 games to pick plus potentially getting a long shot correct, the max possible points to score in a given week is 18. It's also possible to miss every single pick AND miss a long-shot pick, which would result in a score of -1. So at most there is a 19 point swing. Looking at a shorter list of the leaderboard below, Big Ben leads everyone with 161. With a 19 point swing, anyone who has at least 142 points as of Week 17 has a chance to catch up. Don is in 2nd place with 159 points, that means anyone with at least 140 points can catch 2nd place. With a 2 point swing between Big Ben and Don, it's settling in to be an exciting end to this race with some other folks still nipping at their heels. For those who don't have a chance to make the top 2, there is still Reward Points to play for during Week 18. Contest is still free and you can still earn some SCF RP!

We haven't discussed ties yet, for whatever reason it didn't enter my mind when I started up the contest. I'll consult with past years contests on SCF as well as other Pick Em sites to see what is typically done. My initial thought is if we have a tie, we do a tie breaker using the playoffs. For example, if Big Ben and Don both tie for first, then they are the two who are in the playoffs and the winner there gets first prize, second place gets second prize. If say RJ ties Don for 2nd, then Big Ben gets the first place prize and Don/RJ are playing for second.

	Name	Totals	Lowest	Contest Total	Points for 1st	Points for 2nd
1	bigbenjobu	167	6	161	0	0
2	Don Sanford	166	7	159	2.5	0
3	rjabreau88	156	0	156	5.5	3.5
4	cjs-sportscards	158	5	153	8.5	6.5
5	jplcom	150	0	150	11.5	9.5
6	key2win	156	7	149	12.5	10.5
7	michigandan	154	6	148	13.5	11.5
8	clk823	150	3	147	14.5	12.5
9	CMCFan22	154	7	147	14.5	12.5
10	pwaldo	151	5	146	15.5	13.5

[SensSpezza]

Thanks again for running this, JPL! And yes you are correct, I would share a win, but probably would not share bacon.

Love the stats, too!

[jplcom]

You are very welcome @SensSpezza :). Tomorrow I'll post my usual weekly write up but for now let's congratulate our two contest winners!

@don sanford made an incredible sprint the last two weeks, scoring 27 points to finish in first place with a contest total of 171 points! Don also lead with 5 weekly top scores during our season. They key to the victory came down to the Steelers upsetting the Ravens and Don doubling down by picking them as the Long Shot pick, grabbing an extra 2 points and winning by 1.

@bigbenjobu was a strong participant each week and and despite only getting high score once, he finishes in second place with a contest total of 170 points! The key to success here was consistency as Big Ben only dipped into single digit totals 4 times throughout the season, which lead all contest participants with fewest single digit weekly finishes. Had the Ravens taken care of business today we would be crowning a different champion.


Congratulations you two plus everyone else who participated in the contest this year. Thank you all so much being patient with me as I navigated my first contest. I learned a lot from this season and with a few minor tweaks I'm looking forward to what next year will bring. I'll work with other SCF staff to distribute weekly Reward Point totals to everyone.

As for our contest winners here, I'll work with @doniceage on the best way to deliver your prizes. I'm thinking it'll probably be via Trade Manager. As the contest manager I will pay for shipping costs.


@bigbenjobu @jplcom @rjabreu88 @don sanford @key2win @michigandan @clk823 @CMCFan22 @hobbyfan @pwaldo @cjs-sportscards @Tennelson55 @SensSpezza @jonsportscardz @steelers6 @royer33455 @jaswong785 @bakemeister52 @toddsr @Toe7685 @BogoMojo @51CardDeck @scottkoz20 @opulent jupiter @turnpipe @OriolesFan @Davz13 @BYUFAN