Pain for Shane - Draft Lottery Today

[RGM81]

Y'all be having fun with your "playoffs" and such, for those of us supporting teams not participating this is our Christmas in spring event.

Here's the odds & the draft lottery itself explained: https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...hing-need-know

In March 2021, the NHL Board of Governors approved a few new rules regarding the draft lottery.

Move-up limitation. Starting with this season's draft, the number of spots that a team can move up if it wins the lottery has been limited to 10 picks. So, bad news for teams Nos. 12 to 16 in the lottery: You can't win the first overall pick.

Limits on lottery wins. Beginning this season, no team will be able to move up the draft board by winning a lottery more than two times in a five-year period. In the last decade, the Edmonton Oilers, New Jersey Devils and Buffalo Sabres have won lotteries for the first overall pick multiple times in five-year spans.
Which teams are in the 2022 draft lottery?

The NHL draft lottery is comprised of the league's 16 non-playoff teams. They're ranked from worst points percentage in the standings to the highest. Here is the field for the 2022 NHL draft lottery, including their odds of winning the first lottery draw.
Montreal Canadiens 18.5%
Arizona Coyotes 13.5%
Seattle Kraken 11.5%
Philadelphia Flyers 9.5%
New Jersey Devils 8.5%
Chicago Blackhawks 7.5%
Ottawa Senators 6.5%
Detroit Red Wings 6.0%
Buffalo Sabres 5.0%
Anaheim Ducks 3.5%
San Jose Sharks 3.0%
Columbus Blue Jackets 2.5%
New York Islanders 2.0%
Winnipeg Jets 1.5%
Vancouver Canucks 0.5%
Vegas Golden Knights 0.5%

For the 16 teams who didn't make it to the playoffs, today is the day they all find out if it was worth the "Pain for Shane."

[doniceage]

As you say we can only hope for our team. Good luck to you.

DON

[RGM81]

It's all been worth it. He's gonna look great in a Habs uniform.

[PRoy33Collector]

Dam, Flyers get jumped by Jersey again. It's OK, I have no faith in Chuck picking any NHL-level talent in any spot 2-5.

[subban7677]

Well now, this certainly is exciting.

[odjickfan]

It's all been worth it. He's gonna look great in a Habs uniform.

Can we make some guesses on the price of its YG at release? It will be expensive!

[KingKuba]

$500 +

[jverreault]

Will be in Serie 1 or 2 ??

[RGM81]

Will be in Serie 1 or 2 ??

Presumably it'll be 2022-23 Series 1.

But there's potentially a few factors to consider:
1. The UD release timeline is still very badly messed up.
2. This year's S1 YG's were all holdovers, and there will be many of those again this season, so they may go that route once more.
3. He of course still has to play.

[30ranfordfan]

Presumably it'll be 2022-23 Series 1.

But there's potentially a few factors to consider:
1. The UD release timeline is still very badly messed up.
2. This year's S1 YG's were all holdovers, and there will be many of those again this season, so they may go that route once more.
3. He of course still has to play.

I made my guess known elsewhere already, but I'll write it again here too.

There is a very good crop of hold overs, including the top two picks from the 2021 draft (Power, Beniers) and another top 5 (Kent Johnson). UD could have included rookies like Mason McTavish or Lucas Raymond in this year's Series 1 but didn't. They limited it to holdovers only.

Of course it helped that Caufield, Zegras, Knight, and Swayman (amoung others) gave them a strong group of holdovers.

If I were betting: Power, Beniers, Johnson, Boldy, Kallgren, etc will be the big rookie hits from Series 1. Hold Wright & other new players back for Series 2, and keep a couple of bigger names back for extended series.

This does two things. It will boost interest in Series 2 (and Extended, if they also hold some names for it). Neither usually get the love that Series 1 does. Second, it makes things easier to plan. They could be (and I bet are) already putting together the checklist, and getting their print order in. It will give them a shot to have things out on time for the beginning of November.


What will Shane Wright be worth? If it's available at the start of the season, I think the over/under is around $350 CND.... and I'd take the over. If it's released in February or later, it depends on how he's playing. If he's a Calder favorite: $500 might be more realistic. If he's having a first season like Laffy, then it probably drops to $150.