Is the party over?

[MNwild10]

A missed factor here is hockey is out of season. Football is booming right now, and has been for a bit. I however can only buy singles as the prices on Panini products are absoluely insane, as I can guess most UD prices are unreasonable for most as well.

[doniceage]

@scarrman
https://www.sportscardforum.com/thre...1#post15136671

This new sponsor posted a video and it has the redwing young gun as a i.e. in how it has dropped. I mean it a big drop but as others say it shows a $100 drop if my memory serves me correctly. Watch the video in the link and see how much the Luka has dropped and you will see that it is insane. A lot of factors and this software will be well utilized by folks in the know. Kind of cool for those who truly like to utilize sales over ebay 90 days or terapeaks 1 year (unless it goes further).

DON

[pwaldo]

but he's so good looking and charismatic. I'm voting for him again because he's cool!

If you guys need to flee Canada you can always come to America. Just don't go to Martha's Vineyard....

A missed factor here is hockey is out of season. Football is booming right now, and has been for a bit. I however can only buy singles as the prices on Panini products are absoluely insane, as I can guess most UD prices are unreasonable for most as well.

Don't follow the football market and would like some insight into it but the market is already weak for it as it has one of the worst drafts in almost a decade. NBA stuff is disastrous and that could be blamed on the season just having started and people in the off season not wanting to pay those prices but some NBA stuff is down like 80-90%. That isn't offseason fatigue that's a tanking market. Baseball had a full season that was awful outside of a handful of guys. Unless you were having a historic season your cards were down pretty big. Even the guys having historic seasons only saw a modest or slight gain. If you had a card gain or lose nothing throughout the season that was a big win this season with baseball.

So yeah I'm going to continue to go with the poor economy for the US (don't know so much with Canada) is bringing down EVERYTHING and that includes sports memorabilia. So until I see evidence otherwise the party is unfortunately over.

[Drewk86a]

The cost breaking product is increasingly inaccessible. You're often paying more for less.

Raises many questions about the inceasing cost of poducts. I'm sure The Cup costs more to prodeuce than OPC, or UD Series 1 & 2. However, there is less quantity produced to offset the increased costs. As with many items, the entry level stuff probably has a slim profit margin which means there is not much room to lower the prices. The high end stuff, however, likely yields much more profit and could be reduced and still give UD a tidy profit. It seems, at least to me, that UD is pricing poducts on the value of the secondary market and not on the cost to produce.

If UD produces a card of The Cup 1/1 Wayne Gretzky Patch Auto, at a cost of $50 ( made up number) but that card sells for $2,000 on eBay, wouldn't UD feel like they should get a piece of that? So, they raise the price far above what the actual poduction cost + reasonable profit would dictate. They produce a $50 card that is "worth" $2,000.so they pice The Cup as if evey card is (could be) a $2,000 cardand the buyer is gambling on whether they get that $2,000 card

It would be easy to say, "Stop buying The Cup and it will force them to lower the cost" but I don't think it's that easy. Thee are still people with enough cash who arre willing to pay,

[doniceage]

Just some thoughts on the prices going down. I get may newsletters and here is how the price per sport was broken down in a recent e-mail.



@RGM81

Look at this price point so I think the price point is not inaccessible if you take the time to make the move at the right time.





I probably should have ordered more but I do not truly do the breaks anymore so there really no reason to order that many to have them sitting in a closet. I think that is a awesome price point in my opinion and any collector on here can afford that price.

Think Steel City Collectibles and Dave and Adams has them both for 45 each.

DON

[odjickfan]

Wow, 480USD for a case of Extended, that's a solid price! I bought some for 75CAD per box a little bit ago, and a bunch of retail for 50CAD per box, it was too cheap to pass over. It's always fun to open packs during a rainy day.

But, there's something else I noticed lately. It's much harder than it used to be to make low-end trades. Looks like the market is saturated, too many cards available. Also no one is set building, everyone is after the same few cards.

[RGM81]

Yeah @doniceage because Extended is over-produced and isn't particularly great. Cherry-picking ONE bad 2020-21 that was a dog isn't a reflection at all of pricing of new products.

Take a look at SP Authentic - my LCS was selling it at $350CAD for a while...they were getting calls from other shops across Canada because they all wanted to know how they were that low. For SPA, which was historically in the $150-$180 range. It has literally more than doubled and they're offering fewer autographs per box. SPA and the other higher-end products have increased significantly while delivering fewer hits. Shrinkflation, as they call it. You're paying more and getting less. It used to be that if you dropped $200 on a box of Ultimate and got skunked, it hurt but you can get over it. At $300 though, when your big hit is a Logan Stanley auto (no offence, Jets fans) that sells for $10....people aren't going to be going back to that well again.

They're saying that for the first time ever, you can probably expect that 2023-24 UD1 is going to be allocated because of Connor Bedard. The distributors are already telling the hobby shops that if they don't up their orders on stuff for 2022-23 products, they may not be able to get what they want for Bedard. Take a look at the very weak Series 1 checklist for this year....the shops are going to be sitting on it just like they are with prior years of Extended. And who is going to get the costs passed on to? That's right, the consumer.

20% increases (as your chart implies) at a time when people are already getting squeezed in their day-to-day lives is not sustainable and it is absolutely not accessible for the average collector.

[pwaldo]

But, there's something else I noticed lately. It's much harder than it used to be to make low-end trades. Looks like the market is saturated, too many cards available. Also no one is set building, everyone is after the same few cards.

Shipping rates went up again. Soon it isn't even going to be worth it to do a PWE deal.

[odjickfan]

Shipping rates went up again. Soon it isn't even going to be worth it to do a PWE deal.

Personnally, I switched to PWE for a lot of my lower-end deals. As a canadian, it's the only affordable way now to ship a couple of cards to USA, since a lot of people got their bubble-mailers returned to them, if they didn't pay 10+$ to ship as a parcel. Even within Canada, if the other side agree, I often go with PWE now. So far, it went well. I take the time to secure the cards in a taped sleeve between 2 thin cardboards.

[RGM81]

Shipping rates went up again. Soon it isn't even going to be worth it to do a PWE deal.

It is absolutely brutal. I've passed on many cards on eBay in recent months from US sellers. The sale price ends up being lower because Canadians aren't willing to pay $15USD on a $20USD card. It's lose-lose for everybody involved.