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  1. #1

    Does the time frame of vintage and not quite vintage change over time?

    Basically my question is, in 50 years will the cards we have now be considered vintage?

    Will a 2009 Topps Albert Pujols base card be worth $100 in 2059?

    lmk what you think

  2. Kronozio
  3. #2
    No, because of production levels. When the production boom in sports cards happened, a time shift for what is considered vintage became improbable, if not impossible.

    Vintage means the rarest as well as the first/oldest of something, not just something that is old. That's my opinion anyway.

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by sports collector View Post
    Basically my question is, in 50 years will the cards we have now be considered vintage?

    Will a 2009 Topps Albert Pujols base card be worth $100 in 2059?

    lmk what you think
    It will be fifty years old, but won't be any thing special. The amount of product being produced and who is collecting it and how its collected and protected will preclude any substantial value increases, so I guess the answer would be no.

  5. #4
    It will be vintage but not worth much for the reason others have pointed out (over production).

  6. #5
    Really that's two questions.

    No, the low-end base cards from this era probably won't be worth anything.

    But yes, the time frame does change on what's considered vintage. In 1980, cards from 1975 weren't considered vintage, but now they are. There will be cards from this era that are considered vintage, it just won't be base like vintage cards are now. It's like with classic cars...a 1974 Camaro is considered vintage, but a 1974 Mustang II isn't. The base cards will still be worthless, but nicer autos, GU, SP, maybe RCs probably will be considered vintage to some degree.

  7. #6

  8. #7
    Although it would be interesting to see what a HOF exquisite base card would go for 20 years from now. Who knows, but normal base cards will have the same value as they do now.
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  9. #8
    I don't think there is quite the over-production now that there was in the early and mid 90s! So, I think there is some hope for some base cards from this era to eventually be regarded as something "vintage".

    However, there is another factor that is being overlooked. The technology of today has made it easier to pull mint base-cards. Look at the number of cards from the 70s that are off-centered b/c the majority of the sheets were cut poorly. I had a 1990 Pro Set Barry Sanders in a wonderful stiff-arm pose (his right arm, I believe, pointing towards the left edge of the card). However, the card was so mis-cut that his arm pointed towards the left edge, and his hand was cut-off! The right hand from the next card over from the sheet was on the right edge of my card! It was really an amazing mis-cut (at least it seemed that way to me at 7 years old). So it's more than just over-production that will make the value of this era's cards increase slower, but it's partially due to higher quality production.

    But, 50 years from now, while any number of people may have a 2009 O-Pee-Chee Albert Pujols card, how many people will have the complete base set of 2009 O-Pee-Chee!? With God as my witness, I will (assuming I live to be 76)!... Otherwise, one of my children will have that set!

  10. #9
    I think base cards still won't really have any value 50 years from now. But I would be interested to see what something like a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning Contenders RC card would be worth 50 years from now. I think it could go two very different ways. Either a lot more or a lot less.

  11. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by dirtylittle87 View Post
    I don't think there is quite the over-production now that there was in the early and mid 90s! So, I think there is some hope for some base cards from this era to eventually be regarded as something "vintage".

    However, there is another factor that is being overlooked. The technology of today has made it easier to pull mint base-cards. Look at the number of cards from the 70s that are off-centered b/c the majority of the sheets were cut poorly. I had a 1990 Pro Set Barry Sanders in a wonderful stiff-arm pose (his right arm, I believe, pointing towards the left edge of the card). However, the card was so mis-cut that his arm pointed towards the left edge, and his hand was cut-off! The right hand from the next card over from the sheet was on the right edge of my card! It was really an amazing mis-cut (at least it seemed that way to me at 7 years old). So it's more than just over-production that will make the value of this era's cards increase slower, but it's partially due to higher quality production.

    But, 50 years from now, while any number of people may have a 2009 O-Pee-Chee Albert Pujols card, how many people will have the complete base set of 2009 O-Pee-Chee!? With God as my witness, I will (assuming I live to be 76)!... Otherwise, one of my children will have that set!
    Great point. Card tech stll wasn't the best in the early 90's even today there are condition sensitive sets (07 base Topps football comes to mind).

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