Help with SPA numbers?

[Craig2]

I've been looking at the Global Chirography set from this year's SPA release, and I noticed that three of the cards (Jagr, Ovechkin, Selanne) are listed as being 1:16,000 packs.

I'm not sure how many packs were produced - I'm hoping someone knows, and can tell me how many of each of these autographs might exist.

[Cunnuc]

If there is one auto/patch in a case there are approximately 280,000 packs so 17.5 of each card being 1:16,000 packs.

That's a rough calculation though.

[RGM81]

So far I've seen varying numbers of auto patches in case breaks. Some will have just one and others I've seen three. Like you said, it's a rough calculation. Surprised that some of those cards aren't numbered.

[Craig2]

So far I've seen varying numbers of auto patches in case breaks. Some will have just one and others I've seen three. Like you said, it's a rough calculation. Surprised that some of those cards aren't numbered.

I would prefer it to the ratios!

[Goose97]

All I do know is that the Jagr is costly! $$$$!!

[mortuus]

at those odds it cant be more then 5 or even 10 max of those players produced.

[scarrman]

I did some math trying to figure some print runs also.

There are 61 FWA cards, #999 each = 60,989 FWA cards total. The pull rate is advertised as 1 per box minimum, watching several box and case breaks the average looks like 1.32 FWA per box (only an estimate). So 60,989 FWA cards divided by 1.3 per box = 46,165 boxes x 20 packs per box = 923,318 packs total. You can move the pull rate down to 1.25 or up to 1.5 and rework the total numbers, but generally within a few points estimate.

I pulled a Bobby Orr SOTT, A 1:22,247 pull. The number of listings on eBay did not correlate with some early calculations (not far off the above 280,000 packs), so I reworked the numbers based on the above. Based on nearly 1 million packs, with those odds, and 2 A cards, the print run is about 21 copies each for the Bobby Orr/ Wayne Gretzky A SOTT cards.

Your Global Chirography with 3 cards at odds of 1:16,000 would be a print run of about 19 cards each. Remember if the total print run is 1:16,000, and there are 3 cards, then each card is 1:48,000 odds.

These numbers are only an estimate, but I figure with the FWA print run and pulls per box, they should be somewhat close.

[steen101984]

I did some math trying to figure some print runs also.

There are 61 FWA cards, #999 each = 60,989 FWA cards total. The pull rate is advertised as 1 per box minimum, watching several box and case breaks the average looks like 1.32 FWA per box (only an estimate). So 60,989 FWA cards divided by 1.3 per box = 46,165 boxes x 20 packs per box = 923,318 packs total. You can move the pull rate down to 1.25 or up to 1.5 and rework the total numbers, but generally within a few points estimate.

I pulled a Bobby Orr SOTT, A 1:22,247 pull. The number of listings on eBay did not correlate with some early calculations (not far off the above 280,000 packs), so I reworked the numbers based on the above. Based on nearly 1 million packs, with those odds, and 2 A cards, the print run is about 21 copies each for the Bobby Orr/ Wayne Gretzky A SOTT cards.

Your Global Chirography with 3 cards at odds of 1:16,000 would be a print run of about 19 cards each. Remember if the total print run is 1:16,000, and there are 3 cards, then each card is 1:48,000 odds.

These numbers are only an estimate, but I figure with the FWA print run and pulls per box, they should be somewhat close.

I was playing with these too but your numbers need a little tweaking imo. There are only 60 FWA not 61 and there are only 949 not 999 of each (50 were inscribed) that brought me to around 17 each.

[scarrman]

Matt Murray was a late add-on to the FWA, so the 60 signed FWA did jump by 1. I was unsure about the #999, the advertisement shows as #999 for signed version, plus "There is also an Inscription Variation that is numbered #/50." So I figured the #999 were same as previous years, even the redemptions that show #/949, were confirmed to be #/999.

[atruong317]

that is also on the assumption that every 999 FWA are placed into the product, which based on previous years is not the case at all.

14/15 would be the prime example. You receive 3 non-Auto FW per box, each with a /999 count and 60 players.
However, you did not receive 3 FW Autos per box, each with a /999 count and 60 players. That alone shows that not all 999 FWAs were placed into the 14/15 product. Or at least not as many as the non-Auto FW.

The better estimate to use in the 15/16 year, is to count the non-Auto FW per case, which I thought was 12 (1 per box), but some have the non-Auto FW are replaced with a Limited non-Auto FW /25. I am also unsure if Matt Murray's "counts" as a non-auto FW.

This is again, dependent on UD actually putting all /999 of the non-Auto FW into the product which I doubt.

Making the assumptions of
1) hold back 5% for QA
2) Matt Murray counts as a non-Auto FW
3) 1 Non-Auto FW per box

35 Total non-Auto FW Players X 949 cards (assuming 5% holdback) = 33, 215 cards = 33, 215 boxes = 2767.92 cases

Using that estimate, and taking the longest odds cards - 13/14 Update Pavel Bure - SOTT or AM - 1:75,960 packs, there would be 8.75 SOTT and 8.75 AM Pavel Bure Cards.

And to count the Group A Global Chirography cards - 1:16,462, would be 40 Total Group A Global Chirography Cards. Assuming an even split, 20 and 20 for Ovi and Jagr.

Issues with the calcs above

1) that's an odd case number run. Would UD print a round number of cases? 2800 or 3000 cases?
2) I haven't watched enough breaks to know the mean or average for the non-Auto FW per case
3) Figuring out what they hold back is a crapshoot
4) assuming they do not make any mistakes while posting their odds.