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yankeesfan1324

How Will PED's Affect Card Prices

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If you follow baseball, you likely heard that Ryan Braun is suspended for the rest of the season for his connection to the Biogenisis lab which gave him PED's. There are also 20 other players who will likely be punished for the same thing.

The first thing to look at is what fans think of them using PED's. The response seems to be fairly mixed. Some collectors are extremely disappointed in their favorite players who are caught with PED's, however it seems that most are accepting and willing to let it slide. It might be expected for prices to drop a little bit if collectors stop collecting certain players, but most of the players named likely have hundreds of collectors, so losing a few here and there is not a really big deal.

The next concern is lost playing time. A player is usually only in their peak until 32, when they start to drop off and usually around 40, star players either retire or end up on the bench. If a player misses a good chunk of a season because they are suspended, especially if it is in their peak years (Braun), it will hurt their lifetime stats. A would be 3000 hit player could lose 50 hits over a 50 game suspension. For long term collectors, every single hit, stolen base, win, save, or home run counts. Most of the players suspended will lose a decent chunk of their lifetime stats due to not being able to play.

The next concern is future suspensions. Sitting out 50 games hurts stats, but it won't kill a career. Sitting out 150 won't either, but it is essentially taking a whole year out of a career. Imagine if Barry Bonds had to sit out 150 games from the peak time in his career, Aaron would still be the HR king. Almost every single player is able to talk about how disappointed they are in themselves and how they will never make that mistake again, but we all know that isn't true. If you have 2 months to sit out, it is only logical to practice and get better. What is the quickest way to get stronger? Use some more PED's. The main player this concerns is Alex Rodriguez. Assuming he isn't done for life, he will be 1 step away from getting kicked out. That wasn't a deterrent for Pete Rose and won't be for Rodriguez. He will talk about how he feels shameful and do the same exact thing. Collectors will always have the fear in their minds that any day could be his last day in the MLB and any hopes for 700 HR's are completely gone.

The final concern is HoF status. Unless the MLB allows PED's, the HoF will likely never have a member who was suspended for PED's. There is always a jump in prices when a player joins the HoF. While none of the players listed were really likely to join the HoF, there was certainly hope. If they are suspended, all hope is gone.

Here are my predictions:
Alex Rodriguez's prices will fall a little bit, or a whole bunch if he is done for life. His prices have dropped, but they will drop more. If he is done for life, people will be dumping his cards right away. I would wait at least a month until the prices go back up a little bit once the market returns to normal. If he is not suspended for life, prices will stay near the same. Everyone knows he is caught, everyone knows his mistake, the suspension will do little.

If Bartolo Colon gets 100 games, his career is done. His prices will not drop very much, considering he has been suspended once so all of the collectors who would have left are gone, and it won't do much to hurt his lifetime numbers. If he isn't suspended (not likely but possible), then his prices could rise a little bit.

Gio Gonzalez is a whole different story. Somehow his name is on the list but that isn't considered bad. The collectors who would leave if he is caught are still here, which is a key point. If he isn't suspended, prices will not change much but if he is, they will fall for sure. At first he denied all connections to the lab but now it appears he did, and the story is changed. If he is suspended, his credibility is ruined and his prices will fall a good amount.

Everyone else will have their prices fall slightly if they are suspended. Their career numbers will be hurt, they might lose a few fans, and their longshot HoF chances will be gone, but their cards will still be desirable. People will still collect a star player who leads their favorite team to the playoffs even if he made a few mistakes along the way.

If you are a seller, I would not dump all of my cards once a player is suspended. This is likely the start and next year we could have an even longer list. PED's have changed from being shameful and horrible to just cheating but not a big deal. The culture will continue to change. If you are a buyer, this could be a great time. If you don't value a player based on if he was caught cheating or not, you will likely find some really cheap cards of some really good players because of their suspensions.

Do you agree with my analysis? Comment and tell me how you think it is, your predictions, and what you will do buying and selling.
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Comments

  1. demonhunter69's Avatar
    I think the cards of the suspended or potentially banned players are done. Values will plummet and they probably wont be in the Hall of Fame. Brauns stuff has already taken a hit. Look at Sosa, McGwire and Bonds cards, pennies on the dollar of what once was. Wait till Arod gets his suspension or worse banned for life. I hate that but its coming. He is able to play now but the Yankees don't want another circus so they wont play him. I see his sp Foil rookie dropping below 35 bucks before all is said and done. I personally don't mind peds because I like to see monster home runs. Steroids don't help you hit a baseball, they help you hit it harder and farther. Recovery time for someone on roids is virtually a day if that. Its when they get off the drugs when the problems begin. Look at Canseco and Mac, look at dare I say Griffey? WOW I KNOW. Its an opinion and only an opinion. When these players came off the peds, which were not banned at the time, they had chronic back injuries...etc. So just wait. When this cycle tumbles down, the cards of the suspended will be used as bike spoke motors. No offense.
  2. yankeesfan1324's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by demonhunter69
    I think the cards of the suspended or potentially banned players are done. Values will plummet and they probably wont be in the Hall of Fame. Brauns stuff has already taken a hit. Look at Sosa, McGwire and Bonds cards, pennies on the dollar of what once was. Wait till Arod gets his suspension or worse banned for life. I hate that but its coming. He is able to play now but the Yankees don't want another circus so they wont play him. I see his sp Foil rookie dropping below 35 bucks before all is said and done. I personally don't mind peds because I like to see monster home runs. Steroids don't help you hit a baseball, they help you hit it harder and farther. Recovery time for someone on roids is virtually a day if that. Its when they get off the drugs when the problems begin. Look at Canseco and Mac, look at dare I say Griffey? WOW I KNOW. Its an opinion and only an opinion. When these players came off the peds, which were not banned at the time, they had chronic back injuries...etc. So just wait. When this cycle tumbles down, the cards of the suspended will be used as bike spoke motors. No offense.
    True, but before McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, and Canseco were caught they were considered very likely to be in the HoF. It was almost expected, and missing out on that expectation hurt. Out of the names listed in this, none stand out as HoFers. A-Rod did 5 years ago but people have been thinking for a while he isn't going to get in, Braun is good but was never HoF likely, and with everyone else there is little chance. If players like Jeter were on this list than their prices would be impacted significantly.
  3. hobbyfan's Avatar
    Stick a fork in Rodriguez, he's done, SOL, etc.. He's bringing this on himself by being a defiant, petulent child about this. He knows he's busted, and yet, he's trying to weasel out. The worst part about that is the the tabloid media in NYC is eating it up and forcefeeding it to the masses because they think it sells papers.

    As far as card prices go, I'd say, sell now, because once Rodriguez gets suspended, be it for 100 games or permanently, the cards will crash faster than the stock market did nearly 100 years ago. I'm not joking. As for McGwire, Canseco, et al, their cards aren't even considered star cards by Beckett anymore, and this close to falling into the penny pile. A-Rod will join them soon enough. Braun, too.

    It makes you wonder about the players' agents and why they couldn't warn their clients about this fool's folly (Yeah, I'm looking at Scott Boras, the biggest con artist among agents on the planet). Were Boras and others looking the other way, more concerned with their profit margins than their players' future health? Probably. They've got to be held accountable, too.
  4. demonhunter69's Avatar
    Amen on the Boras comment but Beckett media needs to be held accountable too. They are like the futures market. There is no way a Yasiel Puig or Bryce Harper autograph is worth more than any Nolan Ryan, Willie Mays or Hank Aaron autograph. Gimme a break. I don't care if it's just a "guide" as people look at it as "set in stone." Ebay has more pull on price than Beckett.
  5. hobbyfan's Avatar
    Beckett focuses on the "trendy" or "hot" players of the moment. They don't think today's collectors are interested in older players, although, with Nolan Ryan an executive with the Rangers, you have to believe that there is a market for him in Texas, if not also nationally, because he's "still in the game".

    Back on point. Beckett will take a wait & see approach before deciding to drop prices on PED-tainted players. Meaning, it'll be after the season before the numbers drop at the earliest.
  6. jwgreen68's Avatar
    I think any player who does get a suspension, wont be the same player afterwards. The fans will always see them as liars and cheaters and by the reaction of the players, they seem to have had enough of this also. If the MLBPA hadn't agreed to the new drug policy, we wouldn't be having a discussion about 150 game or lifetime bans. In my opinion, there will be a huge dump of these players cards and the values will plummet. There will be a few collectors who are willing to take a risk , snatch these up cheap and play the waiting game. I did the same thing when Pujols made , what we then considered a huge mistake, the decision to leave my World Champion Cardinals. I didn't dump my PC but found a lot of disgruntled St. Louis fans who did and picked up entire collections for pennies on the dollar. I wont get rich from it but that wasn't my intention anyways. It gave me the financial opportunity to grow my collection . One man's junk is another man's treasure.
  7. Mr T Plush's Avatar
    Are you serious? Braun not likely to be in the HOF. Your so wrong it is funny...Ryan Braun was clearly paving a HOF career. His stats through the start of his career were some of the best EVER.

    5 straight SS
    5 straight AS appearances
    Rookie of the Year
    THREE top top three MVP vote finishes(1,2,3,11,15,24)<has gotten votes every year of career

    ....He was clearly headed towards a 1st ballot HOFer. Now he can only hope half a season of PEDs can be looked at less badly when he retires.