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Hawk in 2010

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The Baseball Hall of Fame. Perhaps the most debated topic in baseball since, well, there was no Hall of Fame and people debated about whether a Hall of Fame was even necessary. Since the inaugural class of 1936 to the most recent induction of Henderson, Rice and Gordon, we have debated not only the worthiness of the enshrined, but the merit of those not enshrined.

Amongst the most heated argument within the past few years has been the un-election of baseball great Andre Dawson. “The Hawk,” as they called him, conceivably has the most Hall of Fame worthy numbers, including 2774 hits, 438 homers and 1591 RBI’s. You could throw a rock into the Hall of Fame and hit at least a dozen or so players who have sub-superior numbers to Dawson. However, Dawson has patiently waited since 20o2 for his HOF call.

Will he get the call in 2010?

He should. Basically, if you sort through the mumble jumble mathematics of the voting results, you will see that every player since 1985 who has ever broken the 65% threshold has eventually made the Hall of Fame. The last one to break 65% and not be elected was Nellie Fox, who narrowly missed the vote in his final year of eligibility at 74.7% in 1985 (he eventually made it in as a Veterans Committee selection).

For most players with borderline HOF careers, it’s become a waiting game. Work your way up the totem pole of players until eventually the writers vote you in. Gossage. Sutter. Carter. Rice. They all waited their turn and made their way up the list and into the Hall of Fame. Now that Dawson in sitting in the drivers seat, statistics show he should get elected in 2010. No one since Tony Perez in 1998 has 67% of the vote not garnished a HOF induction the following vote, and the only reason Perez waited 2 years was the 1999 class was stocked with 1st ballot HOF’s Nolan Ryan, Robin Yount and George Brett, along with Carlton Fisk. There simply was not enough votes to get everyone elected in 1999.

The incoming class of 2010 includes Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez and Andres Galarraga, among a handful of others. Alomar is the only incomer with 1st ballot numbers, so Dawson should find his way atop the vote. Although I’m NOT a Cubs fan, a Hall of Fame induction for The Hawk is much needed. The vote comes out in early January, so we’ll wait and see. Let’s hope for “The Hawk”, it’ll be landing time in Cooperstown in 2010.
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