Beckett: Stars, Semi-Stars, Commons - How About Hall of Famer's?

[30ranfordfan]

If Beckett wasn't assigning the values arbitrarily and does base them on actual sales data, how do you explain them releasing pricing on products that are just days old and haven't even hit the secondary market yet? Then, after these prices are assigned, they are never updated except on only the most popular players or sets (Young Guns).

With that in mind, the only explanation for them assigning values of $5 to $8 on Canvas/Portraits inserts is that they're either working in UD's interest or that they're completely careless/incompetent.

2013 Edmonton Oilers collection: I am more than willing to pay 1.5x Beckett HI value for any of the Franchise Inks I don't have. I think the Cujo books for $40 (HI). I'm happy to pay $60, and I will take as many copies as I can find for $60.

..... Beckett's formula works okay most of the time, but my point is: Some sets break those trends.

[Maggot]

2013 Edmonton Oilers collection: I am more than willing to pay 1.5x Beckett HI value for any of the Franchise Inks I don't have. I think the Cujo books for $40 (HI). I'm happy to pay $60, and I will take as many copies as I can find for $60.

..... Beckett's formula works okay most of the time, but my point is: Some sets break those trends.

Definitely works both ways. As a whole I think that they grossly overvalue inserts and undervalue GU/AU cards (comparatively).

[cygnusx1]

Another reason (for me) to bash Beckett.

I have a Beckett print version, and Beckett's unlisted card designation(s) frustrate me.

Now obviously Beckett is profoundly flawed to begin with

Lol just don't buy one/rely on one; it's clearly useless

[Savard18]

Lol just don't buy one/rely on one; it's clearly useless

I don't hate Beckett, I find their articles to be interesting reads - their assessed values are garbage tho.

[Savard18]

Definitely works both ways. As a whole I think that they grossly overvalue inserts and undervalue GU/AU cards (comparatively).

I agree..

They undervalue serial numbered cards and SSP's as well.

How is a 2014-15 UD Game Used base Mario Lemieux Jersey limited to xx/66 only worth $8 low and $20 high?... Look, if you collect Mario Lemiuex then this card should be a mandatory add to your collection, but there are only 66 of them - and there are a hell of a lot more than 66 Mario Lemieux collectors out there... That card should sell for nothing less than $50... It should book $50/$100.

And it's odd because there are other SSP Lemieux's like Donruss Press Proofs for example which are scarce (xxx/250) but not as scarce as the UD Game Used that sell for $25 all day when they pop up.. How does a card that is limited to /250 have more value than a card that is limited to /66?..

Of course a card is only worth what someone will pay for it however when it comes to scarce SSP's there is no way Beckett can assess a value because there are only a handful of examples, hence a handful of sales - so IMO Beckett is merely making recommendations and in some cases it's far too low and others far too high..

At the end of the day tho if you have a SSP superstar or HOF'er with high demand in the hobby you shouldn't allow Beckett to determine what it should sell for based on their "formula".. If the card has a print run of less than 100 you will eventually get what you want out of it - because in situations like that the demand by far outweighs the supply and there will always be a collector out there that has to have it..

[30ranfordfan]

I agree..

They undervalue serial numbered cards and SSP's as well.

How is a 2014-15 UD Game Used base Mario Lemieux Jersey limited to xx/66 only worth $8 low and $20 high?... Look, if you collect Mario Lemiuex then this card should be a mandatory add to your collection, but there are only 66 of them - and there are a hell of a lot more than 66 Mario Lemieux collectors out there... That card should sell for nothing less than $50... It should book $50/$100.

And it's odd because there are other SSP Lemieux's like Donruss Press Proofs for example which are scarce (xxx/250) but not as scarce as the UD Game Used that sell for $25 all day when they pop up.. How does a card that is limited to /250 have more value than a card that is limited to /66?..

Of course a card is only worth what someone will pay for it however when it comes to scarce SSP's there is no way Beckett can assess a value because there are only a handful of examples, hence a handful of sales - so IMO Beckett is merely making recommendations and in some cases it's far too low and others far too high..

At the end of the day tho if you have a SSP superstar or HOF'er with high demand in the hobby you shouldn't allow Beckett to determine what it should sell for based on their "formula".. If the card has a print run of less than 100 you will eventually get what you want out of it - because in situations like that the demand by far outweighs the supply and there will always be a collector out there that has to have it..

Not the same card you mentioned, but similar:

https://www.ebay.ca/itm/MARIO-LEMIEU...gAAOSwdxVcWJWK

Falls right into that range of $8 - $20 USD (close to the high end, but doesn't quite hit it).

I saw three copies that sold sort of recently..... that was the mid-priced one.

You point out that there are a lot more than 66 Lemieux collectors out there. I agree. How many out there collect EVERYTHING of Lemieux though?? The number of people making an honest run at "I want one copy of every single unique card" for Mario Lemieux??? I bet there isn't more than a handful.

The way cards have gone over the last decade (or two) - manufacturers have all but ensured that NOBODY will collect players like that anymore. It's just not possible.

So for any of those SPGU Base Cards /66. How many people, when the set comes out, do you really think have that Lemieux card circled as a "must have" ?? I bet the number is less than two dozen. That's why it's not worth much.

Some of those older 90s press proofs, golds, etc.... they still go for really good bucks for a few reasons:

1. While not as limited as today's cards, they're still limited enough that you never see them. A card /250 from the mid-90s is incredibly tough to find (online) today. You might see 1 or 2 copies of it surface in any given year.... with the rip & flip crowd.... you're going to see at least half the print run of a the SPGU base show up.

2. Nostalgia. Plenty of people wanted that card in 1997, and now have the means to get it - if it comes available. Almost nobody wanted that SPGU base


I'll come back to this:

At the end of the day tho if you have a SSP superstar or HOF'er with high demand in the hobby you shouldn't allow Beckett to determine what it should sell for based on their "formula".. If the card has a print run of less than 100 you will eventually get what you want out of it - because in situations like that the demand by far outweighs the supply and there will always be a collector out there that has to have it.

See, I disagree there. I don't think it matters that the card is /66, because I don't believe that even for Mario Lemieux, there are 66 people who have that card as a MUST have. This works in Basketball or Baseball or Football, where the number of collectors are a lot more (look at comparable cards between Jordan & Gretzky, Brady vs Crosby, etc).

I think Beckett's formula works in most cases.... but there are outliers. I don't think SPGU base cards are one of those outliers though. Beckett says a card is $8 - $20... and it goes for $20ish, then I think they're doing their jobs okay. If they listed it for $20 - $40.... I don't think that would make even a little bit of difference in the final price.

Maybe I'm just biased because of how I do things..... but I have been active on eBay for nearly 20 years. Beckett's price on a card has NEVER factored into the 1000s of bids I've placed. Not once.

[Savard18]

Not the same card you mentioned, but similar:

https://www.ebay.ca/itm/MARIO-LEMIEUX-SSP-66-2018-19-UPPER-DECK-SP-GAME-USED-BASE-PARALLEL-PENGUINS-HOF/401701056196?hash=item5d873faec4:g:VigAAOSwdxVcWJW K

Falls right into that range of $8 - $20 USD (close to the high end, but doesn't quite hit it).

I saw three copies that sold sort of recently..... that was the mid-priced one.

You point out that there are a lot more than 66 Lemieux collectors out there. I agree. How many out there collect EVERYTHING of Lemieux though?? The number of people making an honest run at "I want one copy of every single unique card" for Mario Lemieux??? I bet there isn't more than a handful.

The way cards have gone over the last decade (or two) - manufacturers have all but ensured that NOBODY will collect players like that anymore. It's just not possible.

So for any of those SPGU Base Cards /66. How many people, when the set comes out, do you really think have that Lemieux card circled as a "must have" ?? I bet the number is less than two dozen. That's why it's not worth much.

Some of those older 90s press proofs, golds, etc.... they still go for really good bucks for a few reasons:

1. While not as limited as today's cards, they're still limited enough that you never see them. A card /250 from the mid-90s is incredibly tough to find (online) today. You might see 1 or 2 copies of it surface in any given year.... with the rip & flip crowd.... you're going to see at least half the print run of a the SPGU base show up.

2. Nostalgia. Plenty of people wanted that card in 1997, and now have the means to get it - if it comes available. Almost nobody wanted that SPGU base


I'll come back to this:



See, I disagree there. I don't think it matters that the card is /66, because I don't believe that even for Mario Lemieux, there are 66 people who have that card as a MUST have. This works in Basketball or Baseball or Football, where the number of collectors are a lot more (look at comparable cards between Jordan & Gretzky, Brady vs Crosby, etc).

I think Beckett's formula works in most cases.... but there are outliers. I don't think SPGU base cards are one of those outliers though. Beckett says a card is $8 - $20... and it goes for $20ish, then I think they're doing their jobs okay. If they listed it for $20 - $40.... I don't think that would make even a little bit of difference in the final price.

Maybe I'm just biased because of how I do things..... but I have been active on eBay for nearly 20 years. Beckett's price on a card has NEVER factored into the 1000s of bids I've placed. Not once.

I agree with you that due to the 1/1 or the rise of numerous low numbered cards by various brands that the concept of collecting a "master set" of a particular player is all but impossible to achieve. However it really comes down to what standards or goals you have set for your particular collection... I mean IMO, anything higher than /10 should be doable if you stay on top of it, and IMO if presented with an opportunity these player collectors will generally take advantage of the situation when one presents itself... When it comes to lower numbered cards or unique cards I think a lot of player collectors just give up looking for them because the opportunity to obtain these cards rarely presents itself, but like I pointed out - when they do have the opportunity they will jump on it.. And IMO, a /66 is really an ideal number/print run - it's not too scarce for it to be impossible to find, and it's not too "over-printed" to make it "nothing special"... That's why the UD SP GU Lemieux in my opinion is profoundly undervalued by Beckett - it is absolutely possible to obtain, it's a "high end" product, it's a major brand, it's a major player in high demand... The card has a lot of factors going for it. Me personally if I was a hard core player collector and Mario was one of those guys - the SP GU Mario would absolutely be a "must have" for my collection..

Obviously I cant speak for all collectors because every collector is unique and has different tastes when it comes to brands and scarcity so all these ideas are subjective...

As for older "scarce" cards like the Press Proofs - I totally understand why they're valued, they're 20+ years old and in comparison to the base cards are 100x more rare and many of them have found themselves in personal collections or are spread out sitting in sealed boxes/cases.. At the same time there are still 250 of them and from a scarcity perspective these days that is "a lot" even when factoring in the era, and also they're a parallel, however the same factors that make the Press Proof desirable now, will make the Lemieux UD GU /66 desirable in the future - especially if your goal is to make UD GU sets.. I mean that would be a tough set to make hence ideal considering set collectors appreciate a challenge (which is why they make sets).

Back to the Press Proofs and other parallel cards that come one per box or case, I think a lot of factors play into their desirability, however when it comes to these "limited" cards from the 90's I think Beckett misses the mark.. I mean you have cards out there (for example) that are serial #'ed to /7,500 that sell for some serious money still... I get it, back in the 90's when a lot of these cards came out they were tough pulls and when you consider 7,500 cards isn't a lot compared to all the collectors and the limitations in communication between collectors - these cards were considered "profoundly rare" but the evolution of the internet, ebay, message boards and other trading sites really killed that - because now the card collector community is national, instead of regional and if you're looking for a particular card that is over /100 it shouldn't take that long to track one down... I mean there isn't one card that is higher than /10 that I couldn't find in an hour - now other factors may prevent me from obtaining the card but I could find a collector that has one and the higher the print run of a card the easier it will be for me to track one down... I suppose my point is that regardless of other factors the /66 will always be harder to find than the /250 and basic supply and demand should indeed be considered and reflect that on a basic level..

I mean a good example is this:

2015-16 SP Game Used Zdneo Chara xx/33 BV: $30.00

That is a scare card of a future HOF'er and I'm sure many Bruins collectors would welcome that card into their collection, why does it only book for $30.00 in comparison to the following:

2015-16 UD SP Game Used Petr Straka RC xx/51 BV: $80.00

Which card would you rather have?

I don't even know who "Petr Straka" is, any relation to Martin Straka?

He played 3 games for the Flyers in 2015, so in what universe is this card (which is more common) worth more than the HOF'er?

It doesn't make much sense..... I could give a collector - even a Flyers fan - the option to pick one between the 2 and you can bet the majority of even Flyers fans would take the Chara, so how is the Chara book for $30 while the Straka books for $80...

Of course in realty you could toss both up on ebay with a starting bid of .99 cents and regardless of Beckett the Chara will go for more every single time..

I guess my point is that Beckett really doesn't reflect reality very well..

[30ranfordfan]

I agree with you that due to the 1/1 or the rise of numerous low numbered cards by various brands that the concept of collecting a "master set" of a particular player is all but impossible to achieve. However it really comes down to what standards or goals you have set for your particular collection... I mean IMO, anything higher than /10 should be doable if you stay on top of it, and IMO if presented with an opportunity these player collectors will generally take advantage of the situation when one presents itself... When it comes to lower numbered cards or unique cards I think a lot of player collectors just give up looking for them because the opportunity to obtain these cards rarely presents itself, but like I pointed out - when they do have the opportunity they will jump on it.. And IMO, a /66 is really an ideal number/print run - it's not too scarce for it to be impossible to find, and it's not too "over-printed" to make it "nothing special"... That's why the UD SP GU Lemieux in my opinion is profoundly undervalued by Beckett - it is absolutely possible to obtain, it's a "high end" product, it's a major brand, it's a major player in high demand... The card has a lot of factors going for it. Me personally if I was a hard core player collector and Mario was one of those guys - the SP GU Mario would absolutely be a "must have" for my collection..

If you search "Bill Ranford" in the SCF inventory, you'll see that the vast majority of cards he's ever had, have pictures beside them. I put them in there :) I know the pains of modern day player collectors... collecting someone who can probably be described as a semi-star, it's still impossible to hit 100%. I stopped believing I could about 20 years ago.

For cards #ed higher than 10? Sure. That's totally doable, for me & my PC. I looked at 2014 for an example. Bill Ranford had 30 cards that year... including Artifacts (lots of parallels) Masterpieces (same thing), OPC (same thing), and a few UD Series 1/2 cards. I've got all of them but one (an Artifacts parallel #/5)

That was a busy year (when I look at the last 10 years) for UD cards of Bill Ranford.

In 2014: Mario Lemieux had 331 cards. Some of those were ITG / Leaf (not all UD) but he had 11x as many unique card as Ranford did.

I'm just pointing this out because I have a hard time believing there are many people out there that are plunking down the money to get ALL of Lemieux's cards. There's just too many. So the real serious Lemieux collector's... they have some kind of niche within Lemieux cards to chase. "Hard Signed Autos", "Unique Patches", "Auto / Patch", maybe they do a rainbow or two each year.

So why I'm going on about that.... for that SPGU /66 Base Card: IMO it comes down to "how many people actually WANT to own that card?". I bet on this entire planet, there are less than 66 people who write that one down on a checklist each year. A lot less.

Obviously I cant speak for all collectors because every collector is unique and has different tastes when it comes to brands and scarcity so all these ideas are subjective...

As for older "scarce" cards like the Press Proofs - I totally understand why they're valued, they're 20+ years old and in comparison to the base cards are 100x more rare and many of them have found themselves in personal collections or are spread out sitting in sealed boxes/cases.. At the same time there are still 250 of them and from a scarcity perspective these days that is "a lot" even when factoring in the era, and also they're a parallel, however the same factors that make the Press Proof desirable now, will make the Lemieux UD GU /66 desirable in the future - especially if your goal is to make UD GU sets.. I mean that would be a tough set to make hence ideal considering set collectors appreciate a challenge (which is why they make sets).

Back to the Press Proofs and other parallel cards that come one per box or case, I think a lot of factors play into their desirability, however when it comes to these "limited" cards from the 90's I think Beckett misses the mark.. I mean you have cards out there (for example) that are serial #'ed to /7,500 that sell for some serious money still... I get it, back in the 90's when a lot of these cards came out they were tough pulls and when you consider 7,500 cards isn't a lot compared to all the collectors and the limitations in communication between collectors - these cards were considered "profoundly rare" but the evolution of the internet, ebay, message boards and other trading sites really killed that - because now the card collector community is national, instead of regional and if you're looking for a particular card that is over /100 it shouldn't take that long to track one down... I mean there isn't one card that is higher than /10 that I couldn't find in an hour - now other factors may prevent me from obtaining the card but I could find a collector that has one and the higher the print run of a card the easier it will be for me to track one down... I suppose my point is that regardless of other factors the /66 will always be harder to find than the /250 and basic supply and demand should indeed be considered and reflect that on a basic level..

Yup. I agree there. I think the Pro Set Stanley Cup Hologram was limited to 10,000 - and it sells for hundreds still. It was everyone's dream card in 1991, so its value today reflects that.

I mean a good example is this:

2015-16 SP Game Used Zdneo Chara xx/33 BV: $30.00

That is a scare card of a future HOF'er and I'm sure many Bruins collectors would welcome that card into their collection, why does it only book for $30.00 in comparison to the following:

2015-16 UD SP Game Used Petr Straka RC xx/51 BV: $80.00

Which card would you rather have?

I don't even know who "Petr Straka" is, any relation to Martin Straka?

He played 3 games for the Flyers in 2015, so in what universe is this card (which is more common) worth more than the HOF'er?

It doesn't make much sense..... I could give a collector - even a Flyers fan - the option to pick one between the 2 and you can bet the majority of even Flyers fans would take the Chara, so how is the Chara book for $30 while the Straka books for $80...

Of course in realty you could toss both up on ebay with a starting bid of .99 cents and regardless of Beckett the Chara will go for more every single time..

I guess my point is that Beckett really doesn't reflect reality very well..

So this one feels like, to me, that the Beckett formula probably reflects the value of Chara okay... but it's inflating the value of Straka. Maybe that was more accurate back in 2015 ? I don't know. I don't know anything about Straka either.

I'm just looking at some COMC asking prices for 2015 SPGU. Not that this is necessarily a reflection of what they're "worth" but it does show what someone is currently trying to get for them - and they have not sold.

Tavares /91: $3.05 (I would actually have bought that right now... it's a sale price... and tried to relist it... but there's 5 more copies on the site, so what's the point?)

Kucherov /86: $6.25

Zetterberg /40: $7.99

Hank Sedin /33: $7.75

Yes... I'm cherry picking the cheap cards, but I just want to illustrate there's some real low-priced cards, considering their rarity, for sale there. They're not selling.

The RCs arn't moving either.... but the cheapest RC from that set I can find is Max McCormick /89, and the seller want's $12 & change.

I'd have to spend a lot more time to really prove my point, but I'd suggest that with SPGU in particular - people at least ask a premium for RCs, and the Vets don't get the same boost - because there's already 100s (or 1000s) of low serial numbered cards of them.


So yeah - I'm agreeing with you 100% that the Straka RC is not worth $80. It's probably not worth more than the Chara (at this point. Maybe it would have been in 2015??). That Chara is a MAX $30 card though, IMO. Again.... I think you'd have a really hard time finding 33 people on this planet, who'd be willing to pay $20 for it.

[primetimepawich]

think of guys like mike gartner, rod langway, larry murphy, ron francis, and michel goulet. Great players, nobody cares about their stuff.

blasphemy!

[Savard18]

If you search "Bill Ranford" in the SCF inventory, you'll see that the vast majority of cards he's ever had, have pictures beside them. I put them in there :) I know the pains of modern day player collectors... collecting someone who can probably be described as a semi-star, it's still impossible to hit 100%. I stopped believing I could about 20 years ago.

For cards #ed higher than 10? Sure. That's totally doable, for me & my PC. I looked at 2014 for an example. Bill Ranford had 30 cards that year... including Artifacts (lots of parallels) Masterpieces (same thing), OPC (same thing), and a few UD Series 1/2 cards. I've got all of them but one (an Artifacts parallel #/5)

That was a busy year (when I look at the last 10 years) for UD cards of Bill Ranford.

In 2014: Mario Lemieux had 331 cards. Some of those were ITG / Leaf (not all UD) but he had 11x as many unique card as Ranford did.

I'm just pointing this out because I have a hard time believing there are many people out there that are plunking down the money to get ALL of Lemieux's cards. There's just too many. So the real serious Lemieux collector's... they have some kind of niche within Lemieux cards to chase. "Hard Signed Autos", "Unique Patches", "Auto / Patch", maybe they do a rainbow or two each year.

So why I'm going on about that.... for that SPGU /66 Base Card: IMO it comes down to "how many people actually WANT to own that card?". I bet on this entire planet, there are less than 66 people who write that one down on a checklist each year. A lot less.




Yup. I agree there. I think the Pro Set Stanley Cup Hologram was limited to 10,000 - and it sells for hundreds still. It was everyone's dream card in 1991, so its value today reflects that.



So this one feels like, to me, that the Beckett formula probably reflects the value of Chara okay... but it's inflating the value of Straka. Maybe that was more accurate back in 2015 ? I don't know. I don't know anything about Straka either.

I'm just looking at some COMC asking prices for 2015 SPGU. Not that this is necessarily a reflection of what they're "worth" but it does show what someone is currently trying to get for them - and they have not sold.

Tavares /91: $3.05 (I would actually have bought that right now... it's a sale price... and tried to relist it... but there's 5 more copies on the site, so what's the point?)

Kucherov /86: $6.25

Zetterberg /40: $7.99

Hank Sedin /33: $7.75

Yes... I'm cherry picking the cheap cards, but I just want to illustrate there's some real low-priced cards, considering their rarity, for sale there. They're not selling.

The RCs arn't moving either.... but the cheapest RC from that set I can find is Max McCormick /89, and the seller want's $12 & change.

I'd have to spend a lot more time to really prove my point, but I'd suggest that with SPGU in particular - people at least ask a premium for RCs, and the Vets don't get the same boost - because there's already 100s (or 1000s) of low serial numbered cards of them.


So yeah - I'm agreeing with you 100% that the Straka RC is not worth $80. It's probably not worth more than the Chara (at this point. Maybe it would have been in 2015??). That Chara is a MAX $30 card though, IMO. Again.... I think you'd have a really hard time finding 33 people on this planet, who'd be willing to pay $20 for it.

C'mon dude. No need to mock my apostrophes, lol..

I was looking at the card and thinking to myself "it's a /66 jersey why would no one NOT want it?" so it was a bunch of ideas stringed together - not exactly a complete idea..

You gotta remember that I got back into collecting 2 years ago so what I think is an interesting card or print run may be terrible to others... Like I stated in my previous post - collecting is 100% subjective usually unless you're one of those people that think buying a Barry Bonds rookie the day before he breaks the home run record will pay for your kids college..

Hey, I'm still relearning the hobby and apparently English grammar so.. lol..

Still, I think the "sweet spot" for a limited card is between /20 & /75 because they're not so rare you cant find them and not so abundant that they pop up every week on ebay...