A look at the playoffs race in the East - Habs fans, get ready to feel nauseous

[Pheebs888]

Latest HockeyBuzz blog with an in-depth look at the playoffs race in the east: https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=98246 Habs fans, I regret to inform you that we'll have to cheer for Boston for the next few weeks!

Check the link to see the 4 teams' involved schedule and record against each opponent...

Those 4 weeks cannot go by fast enough!

[RGM81]

It’s going to be white knuckle time for the rest of the season. That epic fail on Friday really throws a hydro-spanner into the hyperdrive.

I think the Penguins are going to end up as M3. That leaves a three team race with the Habs, Carolina, and Columbus. Fortunately there is a measure of controlling our destiny here as we play each of those teams—obviously those are MUST WIN GAMES. If they lose one or both, it’s probably lights out unless they’re otherwise on a 7-game win streak.

I’ve maintained for a while now that it’s going to take 97 points to punch a ticket to the playoffs in the East and I still adhere to that. That would mean for the Habs they need 18 points out of their remaining 13 games. And here’s where that’s a problem. For most of the season they’re on a 1.17 points per game rate—they need to bump that up to 1.38PPG down the stretch. That means a hot streak and maybe a couple OT losses.

They’ve made things much more difficult for themselves, and at the end of the line the schedule makers gave them a week of death.

[Pheebs888]

So they need a winning streak and they need it now!

In the meantime ill be rooting for Boston to help us and for Columbus to keep faltering...

[Savard18]

As a Hawks fan I will be fishing this spring, lol.... Believe it or not but as a Hawks fan winning Cups and making deep playoff runs gets old.. It's actually nice to enjoy your other hobbies in the spring without having your schedule revolving around playoff hockey...When it's late May and you're still watching hockey it kinda feels like it goes on forever and after a while it becomes "Ground Hog Day" - do that for almost a decade..

So yea, I look forward to the quiet evenings of late spring relaxing, having a few beers and fishing..

[baystate123]

Unfortunately for the Habs , that last push to get in will take up too much energy. All they'll get is a 4 game series and out. Better than going straight home I guess. They're a better team than that in my book.

[30ranfordfan]

There's another thread about the race, and this is what I predicted....

Montreal & Carolina are going to both finish with 97 points.
Pittsburgh will have 95
Columbus, despite the deadline deals, will have 91

I'd probably adjust that to 95 for MTL now... but where I came up with those numbers was looking at the games remaining.

Without going too in depth... just look at the schedule remaining for Columbus. They have 14 games to go, and currently sit with 79 points.

They play MTL & CAR both. Let's assume Columbus wins one, and loses one.
They have two against the Islanders. Let's go for a split there too.
They play strong teams.... 3 vs BOS, and one each vs CAL & NSH. If they get 4 points in these 5 games, they'll be doing really well.
They play week teams..... NYR, BUF, OTT, VAN. EDM: Let's say they get 6 of 10 points here.

That's 2+2+4+6. 14 more points. That's a total of 93 on the season (I think the uptick vs what I originally looked at is that CLB actually beat PIT for a change).

MTL on the other hand.... while they have the same 79 points in one extra game, they're remaining opponents are much easier. With 13 games games left, they have:

CLB & CAR - Let's say they split this for two points.

WIN, TB, WSH, TOR are the last four games of the season. This COULD be a killer, but it's also quite likely these guys are resting players (especially goalies) in those games, as they'll have little to play for. While I would call Montreal an underdog against any of those teams, I don't think four points here is expecting too much.

They play the Isles twice, and should be able to get a split (two points)

The rest of their games are against non-Playoff teams: BUF, PHI, FLA, DET, CHI. I suggested CLB gets 6/10 vs a similar group... I'm giving MTL 7/10 here. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the group of NYR, OTT, VAN, EDM is stronger than the group of PHI, FLA, DET, CHI.

So Montreal gets 2+4+2+7 = 15 more points.... 94 on the season. I said 97 in my earlier post. I'm guessing that included a win over the Ducks, and maybe I gave them an OT loss (plus two wins) in that WIN, TB, WSH, TOR group.



Forget Pittsburgh & Carolina. I just think the Habs have an easier schedule than Columbus.... they'll keep ahead of them.

[RGM81]

Forget Pittsburgh & Carolina. I just think the Habs have an easier schedule than Columbus.... they'll keep ahead of them.

This is kinda where I'm at now. Pittsburgh looks to be doing their thing where they get hot. I suspect they will finish M3. Just do better than Carolina and/or Columbus (preferably both so they get WC1) and they'll be all right. It's going to be an exhausting four weeks of scoreboard watching and anxiety during the games. LOL

[subban7677]

Honestly, I had zero expectations this year. I just wanted them to be watchable. They have over delivered as far as I'm concerned. The playoffs would be great, but nothing about this season has made me nauseated.

[Devlin]

Columbus can't get out of their own way.

[30ranfordfan]

I'm honestly not sure how anyone in the East (or West) is going to take down Tampa. The crazy push for WC2, only to be bounced in 5 games... I mean, it's better than missing, but it's not much of a reward.

WC1 will get the Isles (very vulnerable) or the Caps (who should knock of WC1, but I don't perceive them as the same juggernaut Tampa is). If you somehow climb into WC1 (and I think that will be tough to do) it's a much, much, much, better path in the playoffs. WC1 will have to defeat two of WSH, PIT, NYI to get to the conference finals. WC2 has to defeat TB & then the winner of BOS/TOR.... and to be totally honest: I think the Top 3 in the Atlantic all all stronger than any of the teams in the Metro.

This is kinda where I'm at now. Pittsburgh looks to be doing their thing where they get hot. I suspect they will finish M3. Just do better than Carolina and/or Columbus (preferably both so they get WC1) and they'll be all right. It's going to be an exhausting four weeks of scoreboard watching and anxiety during the games. LOL